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Dax and Dow push up through recent high resistance, ASX is up but Ftse still suffering the vagaries of Brexit and the ping pong pound.

Saw a large poll yesterday that showed that the majority now believe in a no deal US/China trade dispute (as opposed to a deal this year or next or the year after that). Time to move on? (see bottom chart)

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A pause day yesterday for Dax and Dow while ASX had a strong up day but reversed overnight, Both Hong Kong and China are up slightly. A Brexit deal was expected last night but nothing materialised, gbpusd as a consequence was pushed higher yesterday but falling back today, and as a consequence of that Ftse was down yesterday and improving today.

After a pause candle direction is unclear, the Dow ATH is just above but will need some incentive to attack it, Dax will try to hold onto the recent gains and the monthly chart resistance level (purple).

Daily charts; 

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All heading up on confirmed reports the brexit deal is signed, done and dusted and a leave on the 31st Oct. 

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The deal has been signed but not released yet so few know what's actually in it. DUP not in agreement with final text but the EU is likely to say this deal or no deal in which case it is likely to be pasted by the house even without the DUP.

 

Just published 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en

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3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

The deal has been signed but not released yet so few know what's actually in it. DUP not in agreement with final text but the EU is likely to say this deal or no deal in which case it is likely to be pasted by the house even without the DUP.

This looks like playing out, parliament has voted to sit on Saturday to vote on whether to accept the deal or not, Junker has just confirmed there can be no extension so the vote on Saturday can only be a vote for this deal or a no-deal brexit on the 31st Oct. The 10 DUP votes should not be needed for a win.

The deal gets us out of the customs union but stay in a partial regulation union.

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On 15/10/2019 at 15:25, Caseynotes said:

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"EEM is up to its declining tops line, and ahead of the SP500 getting to its equivalent line. This could be the start of EEM leading the way higher. When the two have a disagreement or divergence, EEM usually ends up being right about where both are headed." Tom McClellen

https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/10/17/emerging-market-stocks-just-break-out-of-a-20-month-downtrend

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Another pause candle for Dow yesterday while Dax puts in something akin to a gravestone doji, Ftse remains out of sorts and out of step with the others and ASX taking the China GDP miss badly. May see some selling off going into the weekend.

China GDP historic graph below 2004 - 2019.

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Still not clear how the vote will go tomorrow, will depend on Labour MPs, snap poll suggests general population support it. Merkel ready to offer an extension if vote no but Boris seems unlikely to accept.

Nick Boles MP  @NickBoles  "All the Benn Act does is oblige the PM to request an extension if he has not got his deal approved by the end of tomorrow. On its own an extension request cannot stop a No Deal Brexit on 31 Oct. The only certain way to stop No Deal is to vote for the deal."

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18 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Merkel ready to offer an extension if vote no 

The vote has little significance if there will be an extension given if they vote no.  They can keep this up indefinitely.

Edited by dmedin

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Interesting report from DailyFX yesterday (relates to the above post).

"THE STARS HAVE ALIGNED FOR A STOCK MARKET BREAKOUT IF EARNINGS CAN IMPRESS"

"The recent US-China trade war developments have ushered in a calm atmosphere for the three major US indices, as volatility slips to notable lows – in a month where it is historically highest. That calm, however, has laid the groundwork for a potential break higher in the week ahead as market participants are allowed to shift their focus to earnings season."

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/10/18/The-Stars-Have-Aligned-for-a-Stock-Market-Breakout-if-Earnings-Can-Impress.html?QPID=30472&CHID=9

Also good to see someone using implied volatility to give real-time support and resistance levels as determined by actual trades placed in the futures market.

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Dax trying to hang onto the monthly chart resistance level, Dow keeps the all time high in sight but only durable goods on the calendar later in the week so needs a push from some trade war news. Ftse distracted by the wild cable swings while ASX contemplates the continuing iron ore down trend.

Daily charts;

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Dow trying to push up from near term support around 26730 and near term resistance ahead at 27123.

Dax has cleared key resistance at 12660 and looking to break Thursday's high 12817.

Brexit vote today at 7pm should excite Ftse and gbp and ASX attempting to catch up after falling back on poor China data.

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We've got a bounce off the Fib, Wall Street looks bullish.  Boeing rebounding yet again - it's just too **** big to fail.  Never mind several hundred people dead because of the company's negligence.  :)

My stop is below 23.6% and my limit is at 27,403.

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Well, it already looks like I'm about to lose my money.

Just goes to show that TA is garbage and you might as well toss a fking coin.  :D

Edited by dmedin

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Dow dips below near term support overnight. Big earnings day with Boeing and Cat reporting pre US market and Microsoft reporting after close. Brexit stalemate continues with a general election now on the agenda while Dax sits on the monthly chart resistance level. 

Earnings likely to be the driver today.

Daily charts;

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Dax, Ftse and ASX had a strong day yesterday, Ftse and Dax testing near term resistance. Dow started badly with some weak earnings figures yesterday pre-market open but recovered well. Markets will be watching the EU and US Flash (early release) PMIs today, the consensus is for improvement after a series of recent monthly misses.

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Dax determined to push on while mixed earnings releases meant another step sideways for Dow, there has been a trickle of positive trade dispute news through the week but not enough to push the Dow. Ftse gaining as GBPUSD turns down and ASX nearing key resistance.

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S&P tagged it's all time high today, very bullish especially on a Friday, Oil up, Gold balking and Bund down.

Also see post above emerging markets (a leading indicator) breaking higher.

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Dow and S&P still looking at the highs, Dax continues to push upward while ASX stalls at resistance and Ftse waiting for some kind of brexit resolution. This week could decide it either up or down with up coming US GDP, FOMC and NFP as well as Apple and FB earnings.

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Strong day yesterday, S&P breaking the ATH, Dow not far behind and emerging markets continue the breakout of the down trend.

https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2019/10/29/Global-Equities-The-New-Bull-Market

"Bottom line: based on 3 different breadth indicators for global equities, we have seen a clear and classic picture of a new cyclical bull market getting underway."

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We should be looking for the ATHs to get tested as support now?

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

We should be looking for the ATHs to get tested as support now?

There was a clear and strong push through the S&P ATH, only strong players can cause that with constant buying of the highs shows they are confident. They will likely defend their stops though where those stops might be is difficult to know as they could well be quite large. 

The expectancy is for a rate cut tomorrow so likely to be caution until confirmed as run away S&P could change the FOMC's mind. Today's US open should be interesting.

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