Indices

[Caseynotes]

YEA retail traders will not be bowed and are clinging onto that 75% loser rate like it's a badge of honour. S+P makes a new all time high - retail go 78% short, S&P makes another new ATH - retail go 80% short, S&P makes yet another new ATH - retail goes 83% short.

Saturday 2 Nov IG retail client sentiment;

The problem of course is that when price is at the all time high it's knocking against the chart top border so can't go any higher right? Here's a Top Tip, use the slider on the right hand scale to move the chart down and hey presto - more space atop the chart suddenly appears as if by magic so price can now go further up.

Here's a mystery though, it's not the dumb money that keeps pushing price higher, they're all short. I wonder who it could be then 🤔

[Caseynotes]

Dow just tucked under it's all time high, Dax also looking to go higher. Ftse and ASX still trapped.

Callum Thomas "while the S&P500 made a new all time high, so too did the MSCI ACWI (global equities), and interestingly enough 1/3rd of countries are now in a "bull market"

[Caseynotes]

Dow COT net positions update;

[dmedin]

45 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Dow COT net positions update;

Where did you get this one from?  Not barcharts.com?

[Caseynotes]

Just now, dmedin said:

Where did you get this one from?  Not barcharts.com?

no, it's https://www.cotbase.com/ , I've used it for years but a while back they revamped the site and introduced a registration and subscription so I started looking elsewhere but it's still the best one and the basic subscription is free so you just need to register.

[Caseynotes]

Strong push up through the all time high for Dow yesterday, Dax follows. Ftse approaching near term resistance, ASX remains mid range. Emerging markets ETF gaps higher continuing the breakout.

[Caseynotes]

"adding even more weight to the global breakouts in progress. Note the Shanghai 50 "big guns" index is up +33% YTD – outperforming *all* U.S. indexes by a wide margin. And no one is talking about it."

Macro Charts @MacroCharts

MXWO World Index.

KOSPI Korean Composite.

SSE 50 China 50.

[dmedin]

Today's IC Trader is 'square' on S&P 500 and thinks that the market is overconfident.  But then that old girl has been wrong in the past

 

[Caseynotes]

Dow, Dax and Ftse put in a pause candle yesterday and not much on the calendar for the rest of the week excepting BoE rate decision tomorrow so looking for trend continuation for Dax and Dow. ASX down in Asian session.

2 interesting stories, Remove all Emotion says Jim Simons https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/how-jim-simons-founder-of-renaissance-technologies-beats-the-market.html

And Robert Kaplan Says Steeper Yield Curve a Sign Fed Rates Now Appropriate, https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/robert-kaplan-says-steeper-yield-curve-a-sign-fed-rates-now-appropriate-1.1343406

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow still paused at the highs, Ftse and ASX approach near term resistance. Attempts to push higher yesterday stalled on news there would be no signing of the phase 1 trade deal between US and China in November, next possible date is Dec 3rd and 4th.

“Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria” - John Templeton

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow continue into clear space, The Dax all time high is just ahead at 13596. Ftse and ASX still trapped by key resistance, Ftse with Brexit woes and ASX with China econ strength woes.

Not sure today, maybe a cautionary pullback going into the weekend, not much on the calendar, continued gains today would be extremely bullish. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk

BAML: European Equities Saw Biggest Inflows In 88 Weeks Surmounting To $1.7Bln - RTRS

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Not sure today, maybe a cautionary pullback going into the weekend, not much on the calendar, continued gains today would be extremely bullish. 

Others may feel the same way, taking profits and thereby causing price to drop 🙈

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Others may feel the same way, taking profits and thereby causing price to drop 🙈

certainly the London session is showing caution but support looks to be holding so not actually pulling back any further, will be interesting to see if the US want to buy into the highs straight into the weekend.

[dmedin]

Reuters seems to be anticipating a correction today. 

[dmedin]

Quote

The wide array of picks comes at a time when the U.S. stock market is widely seen as having little room to significantly expand past its recent record highs as the Federal Reserve appears ready to pause its path of equity-friendly interest rate cuts. The benchmark S&P 500 is up nearly 24% since the start of the year, a performance greater than any other developed market equity index.

Instead, investors are shying away from broad bets on the market and instead focusing on more specialized assets in hopes of finding value as global economic growth slows.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-investment-summit-bets/investors-looking-beyond-u-s-equity-market-for-2020-idUKKBN1XI1K8

 

As always ... what happens on the charts is the most important thing to watch

Maybe Trump will get the Fed to drop rates by postponing the trade deal again ...

Edited November 8, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

20 minutes ago, dmedin said:

As always ... what happens on the charts is the most important thing to watch

the 'up nearly 24% on the year' sounds like everyone is all ready in long but that figure comes after the big drop in Dec so not really the case, open interest is still low so there's still a lot of upside potential and we know sentiment has been low for a while but looks to have turned up recently both in emerging markets and developed markets.

[Caseynotes]

Bespoke @bespokeinvest

There haven't been many times in the last decade where the yield curve steepened this much this fast.

[Caseynotes]

Very impressive S&P weekly and Monthly charts;

[Caseynotes]

Indices losing some of their risk on enthusiasm and pulling back a touch. Ftse and ASX still at resistance while Dax and Dow are clear above their monthly chart resistance levels (purple) but currently looking for support.

[Caseynotes]

Over 70% of countries making up the MSCI World Index (23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets) now have a rising 200 dma. 

"Following up on last week's report – on the importance of the big picture: Most global Stock markets are in uptrends (rising 200dmas). This condition defined *nearly all* global Bull markets in history, AND weakness correctly anticipated every Bear market. Currently Bullish."

 

 

[dmedin]

Quote

Wall Street’s main indexes were set to retreat at the open on Monday as comments by President Donald Trump dampened expectations around a U.S.-China trade deal,

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-set-for-weak-open-as-trump-hong-kong-sour-mood-idUSKBN1XL1LP

 

Donald Trump is an absolute godsend to the mainstream media!

Edited November 11, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

16 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Wall Street’s main indexes were set to retreat at the open on Monday as comments by President Donald Trump dampened expectations around a U.S.-China trade deal,

H4 Dax and Dow on the US market open look to have found support after pulling back on news Trump had never agreed to a roll back of the tariffs late on Friday.

[dmedin]

@Caseynotes

 

Checked my trusty 'Technical analysis of the Financial Markets' by John J. Murphy and he says that the commercials (hedgers) are usually right.

Apropos of which:

[Caseynotes]

46 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Checked my trusty 'Technical analysis of the Financial Markets' by John J. Murphy and he says that the commercials (hedgers) are usually right.

not the case, the commercials are the product producers, users and hedgers working through investment banks and institutions, large speculators are registered traders working for investment banks and institutions, note that the net positions of the two are a near mirror image.

During trends large speculators are usually on the right side of the market but tend to get over extended and when there is no one else to sell/ buy to/from the market stops working for them, commercials are better at seeing these signs of coming tops and bottoms.

Your graph shows the long bull trend in Dow in which the large speculators are net long for the duration while the commercials are net short. But you need not worry about the commercials they do just fine providing the other side of the market for the large speculators, as you point out, many of the commercial contracts are hedging for the producers/users and are expected to expire worthless.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow looking set to push higher, Ftse and ASX still trapped by resistance.

BAML global fund managers survey of asset allocation shows push into equities and sentiment for global economy for the next 12 months turns positive.

[CharlotteIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and Dow have turned higher despite sharp losses on Friday. With key resistance up ahead, will the recent market uptrend continue?

Our senior market analyst Joshua Mahony wrote about the FTSE, DAX and DOW movement. What is everyone thinking of this recovery and do you think it's going to continue with this bullish behavior. 

FTSE 100, DAX and Dow surges higher after Friday declines

[dmedin]

Quote

A positive speech on U.S.-China trade would likely satisfy market participants even without specific details of the “Phase 1” agreement under negotiation, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group in Minneapolis.

“It still feels like we’re pretty close to having something done,” Paulsen said on Monday. “Even if it’s meaningless, it will be meaningful.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-trade/markets-hope-for-positive-signs-from-trump-trade-speech-idUKKBN1XM0JR

 

[dmedin]

All eyes on the idiot-in-chief tonight!

[Caseynotes]

Huge beat in ZEW figures:

EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV),

Actual: -2.1

Expected: -13.0

Previous: -22.8