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58 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

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As a 'best seller' he must surely have been 'cashing in' with his books and his talks.

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

 

 

As a 'best seller' he must surely have been 'cashing in' with his books and his talks.

yes, and no end of customers. S&P passes through the ATH (again) so IG clients move evermore into shorts, now at 78% short.

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

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20 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

Yes.👍

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Not surprising a pause day for US indices yesterday, Dax followed suit while Ftse and ASX pulled back. Bund tries to bounce off support again and OIL and Gold little change.

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Good earnings results from Apple and Facebook plus the expected rate cut push the S&P higher, Dax and Dow reach resistance. Ftse unable to push through near term resistance and ASX not liking the cancellation of the Chile summit where a US/Chine trade deal was expected to be signed, plus news China production has fallen to it's lowest level for 3 and a half years.

Euro Stoxx600 breaking out of it's long term down trend.

(note chart order change around)

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Edited by Caseynotes

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On 29/10/2019 at 14:26, Caseynotes said:

yes, and no end of customers. S&P passes through the ATH (again) so IG clients move evermore into shorts, now at 78% short.

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

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And yes, retail have done it again, the S&P breaks out into new highs so more retail traders have gone short.

78% yesterday afternoon, now at 80%.

Er, sell the highs right? no, not if there are continuous new highs (= trend). 

Client sentiment data in action as a leading contrarian indicator. 

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Indices took a double hit yesterday with China announcing doom on trade talks then in the afternoon another US PMI miss but overnight recovery as China data shows an unexpected PMI beat, so Indices start the grind back up again bulls not willing to lose sight of the highs.

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Sebastian Sienkiewicz @Amdalleq

9h

"Wow, 73% of the S&P 500 companies which reported earnings so far beat their estimates (actual Earnings Per Share higher than mean forecast). Highest percentage since 2006. It seems to me like the forecasts were lowered too much.. 40% of the S&P companies reported so far"

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NFP far higher than expected!  What if it's wrong and they have to revise it, as they often do?  :D

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Please anyone, what time today can the rating announcement on South Africa by Moody's be expected?

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YEA retail traders will not be bowed and are clinging onto that 75% loser rate like it's a badge of honour. S+P makes a new all time high - retail go 78% short, S&P makes another new ATH - retail go 80% short, S&P makes yet another new ATH - retail goes 83% short.

Saturday 2 Nov IG retail client sentiment;

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The problem of course is that when price is at the all time high it's knocking against the chart top border so can't go any higher right? Here's a Top Tip, use the slider on the right hand scale to move the chart down and hey presto - more space atop the chart suddenly appears as if by magic so price can now go further up.

Here's a mystery though, it's not the dumb money that keeps pushing price higher, they're all short. I wonder who it could be then 🤔

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Dow just tucked under it's all time high, Dax also looking to go higher. Ftse and ASX still trapped.

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Callum Thomas "while the S&P500 made a new all time high, so too did the MSCI ACWI (global equities), and interestingly enough 1/3rd of countries are now in a "bull market"

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45 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Dow COT net positions update;

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Where did you get this one from?  Not barcharts.com?

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Just now, dmedin said:

Where did you get this one from?  Not barcharts.com?

no, it's https://www.cotbase.com/ , I've used it for years but a while back they revamped the site and introduced a registration and subscription so I started looking elsewhere but it's still the best one and the basic subscription is free so you just need to register.

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Strong push up through the all time high for Dow yesterday, Dax follows. Ftse approaching near term resistance, ASX remains mid range. Emerging markets ETF gaps higher continuing the breakout.

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"adding even more weight to the global breakouts in progress. Note the Shanghai 50 "big guns" index is up +33% YTD – outperforming *all* U.S. indexes by a wide margin. And no one is talking about it."

Macro Charts @MacroCharts

MXWO World Index.

KOSPI Korean Composite.

SSE 50 China 50.

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Today's IC Trader is 'square' on S&P 500 and thinks that the market is overconfident.  But then that old girl has been wrong in the past :D

 

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Dow, Dax and Ftse put in a pause candle yesterday and not much on the calendar for the rest of the week excepting BoE rate decision tomorrow so looking for trend continuation for Dax and Dow. ASX down in Asian session.

2 interesting stories, Remove all Emotion says Jim Simons https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/how-jim-simons-founder-of-renaissance-technologies-beats-the-market.html

And Robert Kaplan Says Steeper Yield Curve a Sign Fed Rates Now Appropriate, https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/robert-kaplan-says-steeper-yield-curve-a-sign-fed-rates-now-appropriate-1.1343406

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Dax and Dow still paused at the highs, Ftse and ASX approach near term resistance. Attempts to push higher yesterday stalled on news there would be no signing of the phase 1 trade deal between US and China in November, next possible date is Dec 3rd and 4th.

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“Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria” - John Templeton

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Dax and Dow continue into clear space, The Dax all time high is just ahead at 13596. Ftse and ASX still trapped by key resistance, Ftse with Brexit woes and ASX with China econ strength woes.

Not sure today, maybe a cautionary pullback going into the weekend, not much on the calendar, continued gains today would be extremely bullish. 

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Edited by Caseynotes

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LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk

BAML: European Equities Saw Biggest Inflows In 88 Weeks Surmounting To $1.7Bln - RTRS

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3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Not sure today, maybe a cautionary pullback going into the weekend, not much on the calendar, continued gains today would be extremely bullish. 

Others may feel the same way, taking profits and thereby causing price to drop 🙈

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Others may feel the same way, taking profits and thereby causing price to drop 🙈

certainly the London session is showing caution but support looks to be holding so not actually pulling back any further, will be interesting to see if the US want to buy into the highs straight into the weekend.

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Reuters seems to be anticipating a correction today. 

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Quote

The wide array of picks comes at a time when the U.S. stock market is widely seen as having little room to significantly expand past its recent record highs as the Federal Reserve appears ready to pause its path of equity-friendly interest rate cuts. The benchmark S&P 500 is up nearly 24% since the start of the year, a performance greater than any other developed market equity index.

Instead, investors are shying away from broad bets on the market and instead focusing on more specialized assets in hopes of finding value as global economic growth slows.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-investment-summit-bets/investors-looking-beyond-u-s-equity-market-for-2020-idUKKBN1XI1K8

 

As always ... what happens on the charts is the most important thing to watch :D

Maybe Trump will get the Fed to drop rates by postponing the trade deal again ...

Edited by dmedin

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20 minutes ago, dmedin said:

As always ... what happens on the charts is the most important thing to watch :D

the 'up nearly 24% on the year' sounds like everyone is all ready in long but that figure comes after the big drop in Dec so not really the case, open interest is still low so there's still a lot of upside potential and we know sentiment has been low for a while but looks to have turned up recently both in emerging markets and developed markets.

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Bespoke @bespokeinvest

There haven't been many times in the last decade where the yield curve steepened this much this fast.

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Indices losing some of their risk on enthusiasm and pulling back a touch. Ftse and ASX still at resistance while Dax and Dow are clear above their monthly chart resistance levels (purple) but currently looking for support.

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