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Over 70% of countries making up the MSCI World Index (23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets) now have a rising 200 dma. 

"Following up on last week's report – on the importance of the big picture: Most global Stock markets are in uptrends (rising 200dmas). This condition defined *nearly all* global Bull markets in history, AND weakness correctly anticipated every Bear market. Currently Bullish."

 

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Wall Street’s main indexes were set to retreat at the open on Monday as comments by President Donald Trump dampened expectations around a U.S.-China trade deal,

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-set-for-weak-open-as-trump-hong-kong-sour-mood-idUSKBN1XL1LP

 

Donald Trump is an absolute godsend to the mainstream media!

Edited by dmedin

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16 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Wall Street’s main indexes were set to retreat at the open on Monday as comments by President Donald Trump dampened expectations around a U.S.-China trade deal,

H4 Dax and Dow on the US market open look to have found support after pulling back on news Trump had never agreed to a roll back of the tariffs late on Friday.

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@Caseynotes

 

Checked my trusty 'Technical analysis of the Financial Markets' by John J. Murphy and he says that the commercials (hedgers) are usually right.

Apropos of which:

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46 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Checked my trusty 'Technical analysis of the Financial Markets' by John J. Murphy and he says that the commercials (hedgers) are usually right.

not the case, the commercials are the product producers, users and hedgers working through investment banks and institutions, large speculators are registered traders working for investment banks and institutions, note that the net positions of the two are a near mirror image.

During trends large speculators are usually on the right side of the market but tend to get over extended and when there is no one else to sell/ buy to/from the market stops working for them, commercials are better at seeing these signs of coming tops and bottoms.

Your graph shows the long bull trend in Dow in which the large speculators are net long for the duration while the commercials are net short. But you need not worry about the commercials they do just fine providing the other side of the market for the large speculators, as you point out, many of the commercial contracts are hedging for the producers/users and are expected to expire worthless.

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Dax and Dow looking set to push higher, Ftse and ASX still trapped by resistance.

BAML global fund managers survey of asset allocation shows push into equities and sentiment for global economy for the next 12 months turns positive.

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FTSE 100, DAX and Dow have turned higher despite sharp losses on Friday. With key resistance up ahead, will the recent market uptrend continue?

Our senior market analyst Joshua Mahony wrote about the FTSE, DAX and DOW movement. What is everyone thinking of this recovery and do you think it's going to continue with this bullish behavior. 

FTSE 100, DAX and Dow surges higher after Friday declines

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A positive speech on U.S.-China trade would likely satisfy market participants even without specific details of the “Phase 1” agreement under negotiation, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group in Minneapolis.

“It still feels like we’re pretty close to having something done,” Paulsen said on Monday. “Even if it’s meaningless, it will be meaningful.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-trade/markets-hope-for-positive-signs-from-trump-trade-speech-idUKKBN1XM0JR

 

:D

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Huge beat in ZEW figures:

EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV),

Actual: -2.1

Expected: -13.0

Previous: -22.8

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Dax and Dow consolidating around the highs, Ftse contemplating the up coming UK election and S&P made it's 8th new all time high in the last 14 trading days yesterday.

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Here we go again ... 'trade hopes fade' etc.

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We can already see the affect the inflation announcement had on the FTSE today at 9:30, but it's recovered slightly. 

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We have the US CPI announcement today at 13:30 GMT. This is something to keep in mind this afternoon. 

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18 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

We can already see the affect the inflation announcement had on the FTSE today at 9:30, but it's recovered slightly. 

Also today is the start of the Trump impeachment hearings which might also affect the markets. Starting at 10am (I think EST which is 3pm gmt).

How to watch Wednesday's impeachment hearing

CNN Digital Expansion 2018 Veronica Stracqualursi

By Veronica Stracqualursi, CNN

 

Updated 1103 GMT (1903 HKT) November 13, 2019

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/13/politics/watch-impeachment-hearing-wednesday/index.html?utm_content=2019-11-13T12%3A11%3A07&utm_source=twCNNp&utm_medium=social&utm_term=image

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Trump once again took aim at the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions that have left U.S. interest rates higher than many other economies and said he would prefer negative rates.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-trade/trump-says-china-trade-deal-close-but-dashes-hopes-for-signing-details-idUKKBN1XM0JR

 

The big baby will keep throwing his toys out the pram until he gets what he wants.

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Dax just pulling back on the London open as is Dow which pushed through it's all time high overnight. Ftse and ASX still trapped by resistance. China announced more poor manu data as the trade dispute drags on.

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The news came out this morning about Germany avoiding a recession in Q3, however with such good news the Dax has still dropped this morning.

We did also had an interview yesterday on why the indices may be dropping. 

Serge Berger is selling S&P 500 & Dax

What is your gut and analysis telling you about the big Indices. Let me know your thoughts on the piece as well as if you agree/ disagree. 

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Serge also cautioned about Apple in a previous video, but look.

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18 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Serge also cautioned about Apple in a previous video, but look.

ha ha yes. who really knows the future, I know I don't. What I do know is that the market is always looking for value, when price runs out of buyers it goes down looking for support, when it runs out of sellers it goes up looking for resistance. TA won't tell you where these places are on the chart because price is too fluid (buyers and sellers are whimsical just like you) no matter what time frame you are working on. 

This morning Dax started off looking for support and looks to have found it at S1 (13163) for now at least, fine, great, it doesn't really matter where it found it, only that you are able to recognise that it did.

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49 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

What is your gut and analysis telling you about the big Indices. Let me know your thoughts on the piece as well as if you agree/ disagree. 

for some reason the market just won't bend to my will and those dam ned central bankers keep interfering to prevent any kind of a melt down, blo ody ridiculous and irresponsible I know but there it is.

Retail sales and indy production are down because of 18 months of trade war, indices are buying into an increasing likelihood of a progressive resolution of that trade war.

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

TA won't tell you where these places are on the chart because price is too fluid (buyers and sellers are whimsical just like you) no matter what time frame you are working on

 

What do you understand by TA? 

From what I understand of TA, you are using it every day (so am I).  Just because you don't use EWP doesn't mean you're not using TA.

MAs, S/R, pivots, patterns and candle sticks are all TA ...

Edited by dmedin

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46 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Permabears tryna call the market top like

Dayum he a chubby bear 😄

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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

What do you understand by TA? 

From what I understand of TA, you are using it every day (so am I).  Just because you don't use EWP doesn't mean you're not using TA.

MAs, S/R, pivots, patterns and candle sticks are all TA ...

just meaning that TA is based on historic values that may or may not have any bearing on today's market. For example new news is much more important than yesterday's chart values.

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The Dax is clinging on for dear life:

Dax is rattling around perfectly happily between S1 and the Pivot just waiting for something to happen.

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The crowd (permabears and top pickers (80% US index retail traders are short)) must be wondering what they're doing wrong as Dow breaks it's all time high for the third day in a row. Ftse wonders about the upcoming election and ASX makes tentative moves against key resistance. Dax's all time high has also just come into view (black line).

S&P makes it's 21st record closing high of the year so far.

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wow, look at this guys, S&P and Dow storming into new all time highs late Friday session not giving a **** it's the weekend. That's more than just bullish confidence. The Trump impeachment hearings are collapsing into farce. COT data is collected on a Tuesday and published Friday night so won't show this move but it looks like the big hedge fund managers are getting off the fence, open interest has been low til now but that looks to be changing.

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A confluence on the S&p500 on Friday. Resistance turned support just above a big round number as well as a retracement to a daily and weekly R1 pivot and a 20 hour moving average. Notice how the 20 hour moving average looks somewhat more interesting on a 15m chart.

SPX500H1.jpg

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