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Dow continues onward and upward, Dax hesitant, Fste with election worries and ASX watches China's continued decreasing manufacturing production.

S&P weekly chart.

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The spike down in indices in the last hour was the same ol' trade war news, China stating they are less optimistic than the US and feel they have been mislead by recent talks where they felt they had agreement over a rollback of tariffs that the US now say is not the case. After 18 months of this you should be use to it by now. 

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Some excuse is needed for a pullback ...

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Dow back up to yesterday's high overnight, Dax remains in the bull flag, ASX breaking up through key resistance and Ftse still unsure which direction to go.

FT reporting Labour are on the verge of looking for a new leader.

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The politics is depressing ... at least the markets aren't.

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On 29/10/2019 at 14:26, Caseynotes said:

yes, and no end of customers. S&P passes through the ATH (again) so IG clients move evermore into shorts, now at 78% short.

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

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Hi, where did you obtain the IG client's sentiments?

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So after a break upward yesterday morning was followed by a pullback for the indices with the usual trade dispute back and forward plus an escalation in the Hong Kong protests with a stand off between students and the police plus the US senate getting involved to stir things up.

Looking at the Dax and Dow charts there was a 9am break upwards followed by a reversal, some might say that was a stop run but they are usually not much more than 20 points or so, some might say it was an exhaustion bar on the Dax but exhaustion bars are on the end of a run up or run down not 8 days into a flag. Inevitably some will say it's the beginning of end of the world (again) but it looks just like your average pullback to me.

Looking at the bottom chart compares 2 different assets with 2 similar looking charts, they should be because one is the Dow index while the other is one of the main Dow constituents, the funny thing is that one of the charts 'the crowd' are perpetually heavy on the short side while in the other they are perpetually heavy on the long side 🤔

 

 

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We're seeing a proper pullback now.  View it as an opportunity to get back in later at a better price.

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Just now, dmedin said:

🤔

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yes, I was just looking at the same time frame.

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Big drop happening ...

Damning evidence against Trump - he is going to resign or else be impeached.

TRUMP IS FINISHED.

Edited by dmedin

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Quote

Completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House say, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-china-timing/phase-one-u-s-china-trade-deal-may-not-be-completed-this-year-trade-sources-idUKKBN1XU2C9

 

Trump is too busy dealing with scandals at home ...

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15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House say, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own.

yes well spotted, it was down to the Reuters report on no chance of a trade deal being signed this year that caused the sudden drop and nothing to do with Trump at all as there isn't actually any evidence against him at all, never mind.

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Latest 'star witness' Trump impeachment 'evidence' bombshell.

Sondland Bombshell - "There was a quid pro quo!!!"

Did Trump tell you? "No."

Did Pompeo tell you? "No."

Did Zelensky tell you? "No."

Then how do you know? ... "I just presumed."

 

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Since the Reuters report yesterday claiming no deal possible this year US have stated negotiations for phase one completion continue. Looking at the charts you can see why Trump is in no hurry as the China 50 looks more like the Ftse than Dow.

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

🤔

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We've got the whole bundle of EU and Ger PMIs coming out tomorrow morning should be interesting, all are forecast to come in higher than last month's data and also all last month's data has since been revised higher.

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Strong German exports to the United States helped Europe’s largest economy to avoid a recession in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, as companies benefited from a weaker euro and trade diversion linked to the U.S.-China tariff dispute.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-trade-exclusive/exclusive-german-exports-to-united-states-jump-despite-trade-tensions-idUKKBN1XV0VG

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Dow put in a pause candle yesterday which may set up for a reversal back up but up or down will probably be determined by the US PMI data at 2:45pm.

China moving down today despite China reasserting wishes for completion of trade deal phase 1 as soon as possible. 

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Basically ... trading sideways for now.

Stay away.

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Basically ... trading sideways for now.

Stay away.

Looks like there was a speculative rise pre PMIs hoping for good numbers but the data came in mixed so bets came straight off and now back where started so see where goes from here.

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Dow closing the week setting up to go higher on Monday. Next week US traders leave work early on Thursday for Thanksgiving, call in sick for Friday and then turn up blurry eyed on Monday 🥳

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14 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Dow closing the week setting up to go higher on Monday. Next week US traders leave work early on Thursday for Thanksgiving, call in sick for Friday and then turn up blurry eyed on Monday 🥳

oops, got the days mixed up, half day Wednesday, Thanksgiving Thursday and call in sick Friday.

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Dow bouncing back, Dax following, looks like the top pickers are wrong again, yawn.

Interesting chart from Bloomberg suggesting we could be at the start of a new mini-cycle.

And from Calum Thomas global equities look to be leading global PMIs back up. 

 

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S&P makes another new all time high and ATH close today in the last hour of the US market open, especially bullish heading towards the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday.

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Dow and S&P back up to the highs, that didn't take long. Ftse back up to the resistance level that has held since early Sept so let's see this time.  

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