Indices

[Caseynotes 2,040]

Bespoke @bespokeinvest

Smallcaps, welcome to the party! $IWM

Russell 2000 ETF;

[Caseynotes 2,040]

So as usual expect continuation but keep an eye out for US GDP at 1:30.

Below is this morning's SSI data and as usual retail clients are heavy short the S&P during this 2 month straight bull run. Keep hitting that Sell button guys, you never know one day you might be right though probability says that's unlikely, still, what's probability compared to hopes, dreams, fantasies and derangements.

Some might suggest that rather than using well buttered TA to decide what you think the market SHOULD be doing and acting on it perhaps just wait and see what the market IS doing and act on that instead.

[Caseynotes 2,040]

Indices easing back over China threats of retaliation after Trump signs bill in support of HK protesters. US holiday today so probably a quiet afternoon.

[Caseynotes 2,040]

Should be interesting today and what happens to indices, no major news expected but US traders back from holiday and how they leave the S&P poised for the weekend should hint to the week ahead. So far a red candle so the top pickers will be back out from undercover because they know they're never wrong, just not right yet 🙃

[Caseynotes 2,040]

China better than expected manu PMI data Saturday showing expansion for the first time in 6 months encourages the other indices. US large caps are up over 25% on the year (see asset list below). No doubt the top picking crowd have all steamed in short again following Friday's red candle, I'm not sure these poor souls can actually be helped as it's clearly a derangement syndrome. Some even try to use TA to justify the false reality of imminent total collapse but when the chart is into clear space there is nothing to hang TA on, it's all just wishful thinking.

[dmedin 496]

Looking for a little pullback before buying back in this week

In reality I should have let my positions run from a couple weeks back instead of ducking in and out.  Always learning.

Edited December 2, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes 2,040]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Looking for a little pullback before buying back in this week

In reality I should have let my positions run from a couple weeks back instead of ducking in and out.  Always learning.

true enough, pullbacks are a natural part of the cycle and we are probably overdue one but that's not what 'the crowd' are looking for, they are calling a major reversal and piling in short every time they see a single daily red candle. S&P shorts are at 81%. 

[CharlotteIG 199]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

China better than expected manu PMI data Saturday showing expansion for the first time in 6 months encourages the other indices. US large caps are up over 25% on the year (see asset list below). No doubt the top picking crowd have all steamed in short again following Friday's red candle, I'm not sure these poor souls can actually be helped as it's clearly a derangement syndrome. Some even try to use TA to justify the false reality of imminent total collapse but when the chart is into clear space there is nothing to hang TA on, it's all just wishful thinking.

One of our Analysts have written a piece on this event but I love the visuals you've provided here! Thank you 

Asia's major indices up on the back of upbeat China PMI

[dmedin 496]

Aaaaand ... indices totally shafted today.  Hopefully just a little pullback.

[Caseynotes 2,040]

Solid drop for the Dow yesterday for the first time in over 2 months though hasn't breached the daily chart support level. Dax followed and did breach prior support but now attacking that level attempting to get back above. S&P same as Dow and hoping for support here.

China's recent talk of upping the stakes rather than signing phase 1 plus the disappointing US PMI data has shaken confidence that the talks were proceeding well, no major news today so could be a pause day or an attempt to reclaim lost ground.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1172027.shtml

 

[dmedin 496]

I liked a quote I saw on Reuters yesterday, the market goes up in steps and down on the escalator.

[Caseynotes 2,040]

Just now, dmedin said:

I liked a quote I saw on Reuters yesterday, the market goes up in steps and down on the escalator.

Correct, it takes time to build positions that a sudden panic can undo in just a few hours but the undoing inevitably gets overdone 🙃

[Caseynotes 2,040]

Another down day for Dow yesterday as Trump fanned the flames by declaring a trade deal may have to wait til after his re-election in Nov 2020.  Dow looks to have found support at former weekly chart resistance 27313 (Red). The Dems controlled house votes to require Trump to sanction Chinese officials over the Muslim detentions has also caused a backlash from China. 

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes 2,040]

With these frequent breaking news releases causing such major market moves I can see I'm going to have to get Bloombergs machine read news feed, it's only $220K a month 😮

[dmedin 496]

The retard-in-chief will announce another reprieve on tariffs before 15 December, and it will go on.

[Caseynotes 2,040]

52 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The retard-in-chief will announce another reprieve on tariffs before 15 December, and it will go on.

not sure what you're worried about, until Trump gets a deal that includes IP protection with verification that will last into the future then the US economy can keep ticking over while the Chinese economy continues down the pan. US/China trade only accounts for 2.5% of global trade anyway. Trump's got all the time in the world.

[Caseynotes 2,040]

1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

not sure what you're worried about, until Trump gets a deal that includes IP protection with verification that will last into the future then the US economy can keep ticking over while the Chinese economy continues down the pan. US/China trade only accounts for 2.5% of global trade anyway. Trump's got all the time in the world.

and don't forget there are Chinese politicians blatantly claiming China has the absolute  right to steal because China is poor and of course that's what all socialist do anyway 😆

[Caseynotes 2,040]

ADP non-farm payroll comes in a bad miss at only half the 137k expected could be a precursor for a bad NFP print on Friday.

Looks to have hit the USD more than indices at the moment.

[Caseynotes 2,040]

Dow thinks it's found support and is now working it's way back up, Dax already has a head start. Ftse is of course still mired in Brexit and Election fuddle.

[dmedin 496]

17 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

ADP non-farm payroll comes in a bad miss at only half the 137k expected could be a precursor for a bad NFP print on Friday.

 

😢

[Caseynotes 2,040]

Dow continues upward but a big day ahead with NFP this afternoon. The OPEC mtg rumbles on but a cut in production looks a likely outcome. S&P now back up over 50% of the Mon-Tues drop.

[Caseynotes 2,040]

S&P sector charts;

Bespoke @bespokeinvest

Helpful snapshot of S&P 500 sector trading range charts, from our Daily Sector Snapshot report available to members. Uptrends in place for all but Energy

[Caseynotes 2,040]

 

Don't try to fight central banks.

[Caseynotes 2,040]

So the recent US indices dip was yet another buying opportunity and of course the permabears diving in short once again only to be flushed in short order for about the thousandth time since 2012. It seems they don't care being wrong all the  time for years on end so long as they might be right once some time in the future. This of course is not trading but has more to do with Je-sus complex prophesying and most definitely needs an income stream outside of trading to support it.

The only people who do profit from it are the professional peddlers of doom and gloom and there are many, but why are so many so susceptible to fake messaging?

In the link below are several short vids on how the media manipulates the news and so dictates what people think both in regards to the markets and in general. 

https://tacticalinvestor.com/permabear-it-takes-a-special-kind-of-stupid-to-be-one/

Edited December 9, 2019 by Caseynotes

[dmedin 496]

Quote

The latest data out of China showed exports in November shrank for the fourth straight month, in a sign the world’s second largest economy continues to reel from the impact of a prolonged trade war with the United States.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-stocks/european-shares-dip-after-weak-china-data-tullow-slumps-idUKKBN1YD0O6

 

I didn't see any announcement of that data in IG's economic calendar or at Forex Factory?

Edited December 9, 2019 by dmedin

[AndrewS 45]

It is the Trade Balance release Sunday morning GMT.

  

[Caseynotes 2,040]

13 hours ago, dmedin said:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-stocks/european-shares-dip-after-weak-china-data-tullow-slumps-idUKKBN1YD0O6

 

I didn't see any announcement of that data in IG's economic calendar or at Forex Factory?

https://www.teletrader.com/economic-calendar?ts=1560405895986

[Caseynotes 2,040]

Dow just backing away from the highs yesterday. No real drivers til FOMC tomorrow so could be slow today. Could be news today on the impeachment process with the Democrat controlled Lower house voting to move ahead with proceedings in a partisan vote in spite of there being no actual admissible evidence against Trump. When this is past onto the Upper house for trial where the Dems do not have a majority it is most likely to all fall apart. 

 

 

[dmedin 496]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

could be slow today

Big drop underway.  Getting set up for Trump's announcement that the tariffs will be postponed again.  Must be great to be in Trump's inner circle, taking advantage of the insider information.  

No admissible evidence - yes, Trump is a totally legit and honest businessman. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes 2,040]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

No admissible evidence - yes, Trump is a totally legit and honest businessman. 

considering he's been under constant inquiry since before he even took office you would think they should have come up with something by now.