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all the witnesses's the impeachment hearings have found so far was 2 diplomats (Dems) who said they overheard some stuff might be true and another guy who thought up some stuff that could be true 🤔

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

all the witnesses's the impeachment hearings have found so far was 2 diplomats (Dems) who said they overheard some stuff might be true and another guy who thought up some stuff that could be true 🤔

 

You can tell Trump is guilty just by the way he reacts. 

But as you said, the Senate is Republican.  So it doesn't really matter. 

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11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

You can tell Trump is guilty just by the way he reacts. 

But as you said, the Senate is Republican.  So it doesn't really matter. 

oh ok, so let's see if I've got this right, you can be called for trial on nothing more substantial than biased gossip and guilt or innocence shall be determined not by any evidence but solely on acting skills. God help the defendant when you get called up for jury duty 😅

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

oh ok, so let's see if I've got this right, you can be called for trial on nothing more substantial than biased gossip and guilt or innocence shall be determined not by any evidence but solely on acting skills. God help the defendant when you get called up for jury duty 😅

If you are a very important person, you are supposed to behave responsibly ... and you should be called to account and held to high standards.  And of course Trump is a very high-quality president, just like he is a high-quality 'businessman' :D

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Dow ended being a pause day yesterday, tried to go down but was just bought straight back up again, same story. Dax followed. Ftse election uncertainty as Labour close the gap in the polls. And similar uncertainty for China. An interesting development yesterday as China tried to do a 'Trump' and take control of the narrative by releasing news the Dec tariff increases had been postponed only for the US to issue a denial several hours later 🥳

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After what some commentators described at the most boring FOMC report and presser for years the charts continue their march back up to the highs.

DOW, DAX and S&P daily charts;  

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When looking at these markets and the trading behaviour of the average retail trader it seems to me that many don't really understand the market they are trading, there are also psychological factors that influence decision making to the detriment of trading success.

If you are not confident in your understanding of the market then you are solely dependent on technical analysis but TA is not a given, it can only play out if assisted by fundamental and macro factors, those factors currently point to bull continuation.

So the US major indices are routinely hitting new all time highs, the retail trader thinks they need to sell the high in order to buy back lower (buy low sell high right) so the retail trader (the crowd) are constantly trying to pick the tops (and patting themselves on the back thinking they are being contrarian). The positioning data of IG clients tell us this is exactly what's happening. Every time price goes higher the sell position ratio increases, when price is falling in a down trend the buy position ratios go higher.

So clearly this is all wrong, when price is continually rising you need to buy high and sell higher. You buy breakouts or pullbacks, you should not be looking to sell a bull trending market at all.

So why do they do it? The market is too high (no it's not), it must be the bears turn (wait and see first), but I need to sell the highs, the saying says so (no, you're not an investor), the chart is looking 'toppy' (just no), the TA is pointing down (doesn't matter without fundy and macro assist).

An understand of a market comes with experience, until it does stick with the basics and look for longs in an uptrend, don't try to second guess the market and end up constantly fighting against it.

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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Zut alors 🐮

Trump tweet at 14:35, 5 min into US market open 🥳🥳🥳

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China responding in agreement - no tariff increase on 15th Dec plus a cut to existing tariffs.

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Dax and Dow break up through near term resistance, Dow and S&P into new all time highs. China markets up 2% on signing of trade deal. GBPUSD up over 2% following the Conservative win in the UK election.

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McConnell: 'There's no chance' Trump is removed from office

“The case is so darn weak coming from the House,” the Senate Majority Leader said on Thursday. “We know how it's going to end.”

 Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry/mcconnell-there-s-no-chance-trump-removed-office-n1101286

 

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It looks like Wall Street has got into a rhythm with Trump, he is the perfect catalyst for retracements and new rallies.

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8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

It looks like Wall Street has got into a rhythm with Trump, he is the perfect catalyst for retracements and new rallies.

The markets are supposed to react to presidential and central bank initiatives. 

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Slight cautionary note going into the weekend is that President Xi has actually signed the phase 1 deal himself yet.

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Ha, got the last post in just in time. (just spotted the last post should have said 'hasn't' signed yet)

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Edited by Caseynotes
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China may have one more trick up it's sleeve. 

China commerce ministry to hold a press briefing at 2 - 3 pm GMT (10:30pm local time so must be important).

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According to Reuters, Trump did an about-face and said WSJ got it all wrong.

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

According to Reuters, Trump did an about-face and said WSJ got it all wrong.

He signed the deal last night, the WSJ claimed the deal involved a massive slashing of tariffs, that was what Trump claimed was fake news, he said they needed to find a better leaker.

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Massive swings and bearish candles forming on the hourly chart.  Untradeable :(

 

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This is just buy the rumour, sell the news ...

Think you have to be in Trump's inner circle to benefit from it.

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