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Was interesting @PandaFace, even more so now as people realised Trump was only discounting the most severe response  to China (for the moment), not actually halting the 'trade war'. Bounce off th


Dax pausing at the weekly R1 and Dow within striking distance of it's all time high. H1 charts;

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A dip down to check last weeks lows for Dow and S&P, will it be enough?

China PMI's overnight look stable at just above the 50 mark (slight expansion). Graph below shows how effective Trump's trade war has been in stifling China's exports to the US and why China must get a move on to resolve the dispute. Talk is that the hard work has been done, China officials have been invited to Washington for deal signing and that phase 2 is not expected to take so long as phase 1 to complete.




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Good chance gold is rising because it's being bought up as a hedge for the increase in positioning of institutional traders in US equities (see repeated chart below from a previous post above)

Also, people are talking about USD scarcity (in spite of printing) in the face of up coming emerging markets debt maturity which will need to be serviced in USD.  


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Tiho Brkan @TihoBrkan


"I think this chart by @MacroOps is THE most simple yet most useful. These gurus who go on a “Recession Watch” every year are trying to randomly pick one of those black candles. Seriously? This is what you’re going to do with your money? And they charge for this “research”?"

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I prematurely went short on the big indices pre-New Year,  but they aren't finished rising yet (so I went long again, and recouped). 

It will happen at some point though.  (A correction of 5 - 10% apparently.)  Would be nice to be able to catch the correction, AND then buy the dip at the bottom.  That's my goal.  I'm not at all greedy :D 

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Dow looking for support at 28636 giving up it's 300 point gain from yesterday after US assassination of Iranian military commander in Baghdad overnight. London open should be interesting, will traders decide to get out before the weekend and possible Iranian retaliation or decide to sit tight. 




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Markets clearly not expecting WWIII is imminent or even the long awaited financial crash in spite of it being 'predicted' every year since 2016. Oh well, just have to keep playing the bull then, boring.

H1 charts;


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The first full trading week of the year can often give an insight as to the thoughts of the big players who are looking at the longer term, will the theme be continued accumulation or reverse to distribution? 

The Friday candle on the S&P chart is an interesting one, you might have thought a period of profit taking was due given the unfolding US/Iran drama, and especially on a Friday but after the breaking news and a big reversal down buyers stepped in yet again and bought price back up from the low around 3211 back up to Thursday's open at 3235. Again that is bull strength and confidence, can they keep it going? The direction the market takes tomorrow will be interesting.

S&P daily chart.


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This gapping lower open helps confirm the idea that the pullback has begun.  Nice little bull trap set over the New Year period by the media etc, and a perfect little 'incident' in the Middle East as precisely the right time - all just coincidence of course :P



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Dow and Dax trying to hang onto their respective daily chart support levels (orange). Which way will the big players take this this week now they are all back at their desks could set the tone for the whole first quarter.

Daily charts with weekly pivots;



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