Jump to content

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

that's true enough but I'm looking generally at the 70% of IG clients short the S&P, a figure that's been fairly consistent for the whole of the last year while the S&P was up over 28%.

"Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider."

 

A large number of those shorts are actually Covering net long equities....i.e they are hedges.  Hence when the market drops , short indx positions get bought back...Also Put/call options delta hedges.....I have noticed when Apple rallies (in a 15 minute section) Sp 500 falls....That says to me that traders are buying Apple (for example) but selling INDX futures against it...

It also depends on you time horizon.  If you are jobbing it net long....fine go for it.....I try and trade with a view .....So at the moment i m jobbing it nett short BUT I scoop back in when appropriate......For example i bought back some SP short on Friday at the close....I ll look to re-instate as it pushes back up....

I guess I prefer to get it wrong because my view was wrong, rather than get caught with the wrong possy with a view I do nt actually agree with.  

If you are a black box trader ....no view just react to a number on the screen....Does nt do anything for me.....I look for patterns /ratios/ and a view....I suppose i take a 'position' in the market ....Get out or get in when /if  things go right or wrong....

Share this post


Link to post
4 minutes ago, cheviot said:

A large number of those shorts are actually Covering net long equities....i.e they are hedges.  Hence when the market drops , short indx positions get bought back...Also Put/call options delta hedges.....I have noticed when Apple rallies (in a 15 minute section) Sp 500 falls....That says to me that traders are buying Apple (for example) but selling INDX futures against it...

It also depends on you time horizon.  If you are jobbing it net long....fine go for it.....I try and trade with a view .....So at the moment i m jobbing it nett short BUT I scoop back in when appropriate......For example i bought back some SP short on Friday at the close....I ll look to re-instate as it pushes back up....

I guess I prefer to get it wrong because my view was wrong, rather than get caught with the wrong possy with a view I do nt actually agree with.  

If you are a black box trader ....no view just react to a number on the screen....Does nt do anything for me.....I look for patterns /ratios/ and a view....I suppose i take a 'position' in the market ....Get out or get in when /if  things go right or wrong....

I can see what your saying but think you may be over estimating the sophistication of the average retail client. The SSI figures are for clients with open long or short positions so covering to get out of a long just removes the long and doesn't add to the short side.

Any system that works for you is valid and I wouldn't knock it but your average retail punter has little experience and only lasts about 6 months, they always seems intent on basically trying to call tops and bottoms which they generally don't have the skill or experience to do. So they just keep reloading after each stop out til the account is gone. They would be far better concentrating on learning a simple trend following strategy to begin with. As I inferred earlier, every time there is a single red daily candle on the Dow or S&P everyone falls over themselves to declare 'this is it' the top is finally in, get short. After years and years of it it really starts to grate, particularly with so many noobs so keen to just jump straight in on any shout out.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post

all trading strategies are equally valid if they work for the individual or institution... 

We are all bargain seeking ...either buying a 'low' or selling a 'high'....We ca nt see over the hill top...We just make informed guesses or straight forward gambles....

I ve had my share of success and my share of failures.....I bought the SP 500 at 670 in Feb 2009 ....I thought it was over done and over sold.....but sold it for a few points because the world (being the same over confident financial scribblers) said the world was going to end.....it was too hot to hold on to...!!!  

My failures have been bailing out of (good)positions too quick....and running losses too in equal measure,,, Failures including $ Swfr...**** currency ...and getting my **** kicked trying to trade the looney C$ !!! 

Buy low ...sell high .....Trouble is what is low and what is high >>>>>????

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
3 hours ago, cheviot said:

all trading strategies are equally valid if they work for the individual or institution... 

We are all bargain seeking ...either buying a 'low' or selling a 'high'....We ca nt see over the hill top...We just make informed guesses or straight forward gambles....

I ve had my share of success and my share of failures.....I bought the SP 500 at 670 in Feb 2009 ....I thought it was over done and over sold.....but sold it for a few points because the world (being the same over confident financial scribblers) said the world was going to end.....it was too hot to hold on to...!!!  

My failures have been bailing out of (good)positions too quick....and running losses too in equal measure,,, Failures including $ Swfr...**** currency ...and getting my **** kicked trying to trade the looney C$ !!! 

Buy low ...sell high .....Trouble is what is low and what is high >>>>>????

 

So if you'd just bought an S&P 500 ETF and reinvested the dividends you would have ridden out the troughs and your capital would not only have been preserved but appreciated handsomely, the longer you held it.

Everything I read on here leads me to suspect that traders are gamblers who lose money trying to beat 'buy and hold', and they fail over and over and over again and just never learn.

Share this post


Link to post
29 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

So if you'd just bought an S&P 500 ETF and reinvested the dividends you would have ridden out the troughs and your capital would not only have been preserved but appreciated handsomely, the longer you held it.

Everything I read on here leads me to suspect that traders are gamblers who lose money trying to beat 'buy and hold', and they fail over and over and over again and just never learn.

same question over and over so I'll give the same answer over again.

When you say 'buy and hold' you are meaning investing not trading but you don't have the capital to earn a living from investing. So trading is difficult and you can't do it so you really want someone to do it for you but still no takers it seems, maybe more goading will do it?  I did write the 'how to build a system' piece in the 'Trade Planning and Testing' thread because you keep on so but even just reading that was too difficult it seems. 🛌

Share this post


Link to post
19 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you don't have the capital to earn a living from investing

 

I don't have the capital to earn a living from trading either. 😮

Making a couple of hundred pounds a day from trading is only possible if you already have a lot of money to play with.  You can easily lose a couple of hundred a day though.

Share this post


Link to post
24 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

'how to build a system'

I'll be perfectly honest with you here, and tell you I think it's a total crock of sh!t (day trading).  I'm even ashamed of myself for thinking it was possible at one time.

Share this post


Link to post
4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'll be perfectly honest with you here, and tell you I think it's a total crock of sh!t (day trading).  I'm even ashamed of myself for thinking it was possible at one time.

yes for you it is, we get that.

Share this post


Link to post
2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

yes for you it is, we get that.

 

For most ...

Share this post


Link to post
6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'll be perfectly honest with you here, and tell you I think it's a total crock of sh!t (day trading).  I'm even ashamed of myself for thinking it was possible at one time.

If you are unhappy trading , the best thing to do is stop. Not everybody can trade, do something else ?  

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
1 minute ago, dmedin said:

 

For most ...

for most beginners yes, but often they come back with a new approach, eventually most with adopted a rules based strategy that testing shows has a positive expectancy but we've gone over this again and again. Others just keep dancing around in circles expecting to just pick it up some how but I've never heard of that working.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
58 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

for most beginners yes, but often they come back with a new approach, eventually most with adopted a rules based strategy that testing shows has a positive expectancy but we've gone over this again and again. Others just keep dancing around in circles expecting to just pick it up some how but I've never heard of that working.

ALL RIGHT.  I'll get my nose back to the grind stone and work on a plan :D

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

ALL RIGHT.  I'll get my nose back to the grind stone and work on a plan :D

GOOD, glad to hear it.

  • Like 1
  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post
17 hours ago, cheviot said:

all trading strategies are equally valid if they work for the individual or institution... 

We are all bargain seeking ...either buying a 'low' or selling a 'high'....We ca nt see over the hill top...We just make informed guesses or straight forward gambles....

I ve had my share of success and my share of failures.....I bought the SP 500 at 670 in Feb 2009 ....I thought it was over done and over sold.....but sold it for a few points because the world (being the same over confident financial scribblers) said the world was going to end.....it was too hot to hold on to...!!!  

My failures have been bailing out of (good)positions too quick....and running losses too in equal measure,,, Failures including $ Swfr...**** currency ...and getting my **** kicked trying to trade the looney C$ !!! 

Buy low ...sell high .....Trouble is what is low and what is high >>>>>????

 

So ... did you ever actually manage to make any money from trading?

And if so, did you beat the 'buy and hold' approach?

Share this post


Link to post

China delegation is in Washington to sign phase 1, will they do another runner at the last minute? 😂

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/13/china-energy-manufactured-goods-trade-deal-098343

US and Dax poised at the highs and Ftse spying the monthly chart resistance level (purple). UK poor GDP data yesterday but they will all follow the US indices higher if the US economy looks set for another boom.

 

image.thumb.png.a1ff37eb9918f0244d2213d3098645e0.png

image.thumb.png.b5a78c125ce01efdef10bf023b6144db.png

image.thumb.png.43453d3ccec45ae60eb7bdcdc4847cec.png

image.png.8446d6f09b8a595ca5c782f430fe5ab2.png

Share this post


Link to post

We have looked before at the open interest in Indices still being on the low side, here is another look from a different angle.

h/t to themarketear.

image.png.d80d0cc3e6709f07a459d5d993d4361f.png 

Share this post


Link to post

FTSE 100  in a triangle of indecision .  ....Looses momentum in this 7630 area 1585429901_FTSE100_20200114_08_56.png.f3a1e852e62f3faa592cff550bb87ec7.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
3m
 

This is certainly one of the most important economic news of the past months. Our leading indicator for China credit impulse is back in positive territory for the 1st time since the end of 2017. Running at 0.7% of GDP. It confirms our positive narrative for the global economy

image.thumb.png.37d1576c9c884613c006fd8145f682a0.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

China delegation is in Washington to sign phase 1, will they do another runner at the last minute? 😂

 

Don't worry, the t*rd in chief will start his phase 2 BS come February and we can have another year of the same.  Oh, and the Brexit bull-locks will flare up again at the same time.  :D:D:D:D

Share this post


Link to post
19 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

So if you'd just bought an S&P 500 ETF and reinvested the dividends you would have ridden out the troughs and your capital would not only have been preserved but appreciated handsomely, the longer you held it.

Everything I read on here leads me to suspect that traders are gamblers who lose money trying to beat 'buy and hold', and they fail over and over and over again and just never learn.

buy n hold using cfd's?

u will be slaves n keep on paying interest.....hardcore...lolx

Share this post


Link to post
Quote

After three years at the White House, Trump has completely changed his view about the stock market.

Now he's euphoric and has turned to Twitter to brag about how the Dow's record-breaking run has added "VALUE" to the American Business.

But back in 2015 with the U.S. index 10k points below current levels he had warned of a "Bubble Like You've Never Seen Before".

Check out this snapshot, courtesy of Giuseppe Sersale, portfolio manager at Anthilia, who notes on Twitter: "It's impressive how views can change".

 

If the t*rd loves it so much that's as good a reason as any to steer well away from it 

Share this post


Link to post

Look out everybody,,,I just bought cable...God loves a trier ...or so they say ....GBP_USD_20200114_11_49.png.59470878abd8bbb3f0539905aa87ba9b.png

I think it is A to $1.32 off $1.29 and we ve just completed C of B ,,,filing London gap left over from New years day at $1.2950.   C will take us back up to $1.32 or so before a plunge lower.....So I m a bear who is willing to hold £ just to sell later....

  • Like 1
  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post
53 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Look out everybody,,,I just bought cable...God loves a trier ...or so they say ....GBP_USD_20200114_11_49.png.59470878abd8bbb3f0539905aa87ba9b.png

I think it is A to $1.32 off $1.29 and we ve just completed C of B ,,,filing London gap left over from New years day at $1.2950.   C will take us back up to $1.32 or so before a plunge lower.....So I m a bear who is willing to hold £ just to sell later....

Mmmm  could nt hold 90 bid, guess we re going to take aleg down to $1.2910 now ?? 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
1 hour ago, cheviot said:

Mmmm  could nt hold 90 bid, guess we re going to take aleg down to $1.2910 now ?? 

 

When I look at FX I just see see-sawing up and down ... I wouldn't trade any FX pairs except maybe USD/Yen

Share this post


Link to post

 

Steve Place @stevenplace

16h

"The Nasdaq Composite is currently 36% above its 200 week moving average. At the 2000 peak, it was 150% above This market is not like the Dot Com bubble."

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
2 hours ago, cheviot said:

Mmmm  could nt hold 90 bid, guess we re going to take aleg down to $1.2910 now ?? 

 

 

Pound strength then is it?  Must be advanced-perspective insight that predicts higher interest rates after the imminent rate cut :D

EUR_GBP_20200114_15_34.thumb.png.3f569dff92ac4c7c92e9f90fc3b688c9.png

Share this post


Link to post
1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Pound strength then is it?  Must be advanced-perspective insight that predicts higher interest rates after the imminent rate cut

Conversely ....£ getting bids on the back of Gilts going up,,,,Foreign buyers covering £ short....not unusual 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Quote

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said late on Tuesday that the United States would keep in place tariffs on Chinese goods until the completion of a second phase of a U.S.-China trade agreement, triggering some profit-taking in risk assets.

 

Yep, sh!t-for-brains is going to pull the same stunt this year - 'phase 2'.  Like a true mob boss

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/stocks-slip-ahead-of-u-s-china-trade-deal-signing-idUKKBN1ZE032

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      12,811
    • Total Posts
      65,782
    • Total Members
      86,760
    Newest Member
    Shami123
    Joined 28/10/20 11:37
  • Posts

    • Hi, Can you please advise when is the last day to buy more TILS before settlement takes place? HL platform confirmed it is 30th October, can you please confirm the same? Thanks
    • The reason for the change is Rolls-Royce has announced a rights issue. The ex date is today. If you held shares from yesterday through to the open this morning you will be entitled to the following.  Rolls-Royce announces £2 billion rights issue The rights issue trading period for Rolls-Royce shares is now active, giving you the chance to buy new shares for the reduced price of 32p until the deadline date – 4pm (UK time) on 6 November 2020. You’ll be able to subscribe to ten new shares for every three you currently hold. This offer has implications if you have either long or short positions – learn how to get your preferred outcome below. How this affects your entitlement: You have a number of options depending on your original trade. If you have a long position, you can: ■Take up the rights issue by replying to this email (corporate.actions@ig.com) before the deadline, quoting your account ID and stating your wish to take up the rights. ■Do nothing and let the rights lapse – this is IG’s default option for clients ■Trade out of the rights by closing your position in the platform by 6 November 2020 – 4pm (UK time) If you have a short position, you can: ■Buy the rights back by closing your short position, before 6 November 2020 – 4pm (UK time), in the platform during the rights trading period ■Take no action. This will risk your rights being taken up automatically, depending on the result of the offer. This means that you may have a new short position opened on your account at the subscription price under the terms of the offer You’ll need to make your decision by 4pm (UK time) on 6 November 2020 – otherwise your entitlement will lapse by default. If you hold rights on multiple accounts, please reply to this email and state the relevant account IDs on which you wish to take up the rights. You'll also need to do this if your ISA is at the maximum allowance – please confirm that you'd like the new shares transferred to your share dealing account. If you hold shares in a share dealing or ISA account, please ensure the relevant one is adequately funded before this deadline date and maintained beyond 12 November 2020 – when the new shares will be booked on your account – or this election will lapse by default. All positions with guaranteed stops will be closed at the final price on the day before the ex-date. We’ll open a new position to automatically take up the above offer at an adjusted level and size. The monetary risk of the trade will remain the same. We’ll also remove all working orders on Rolls-Royce before the market opens on the ex-date. Please be aware that the information above could change. You can find quick answers to any questions about this rights issue in the FAQs.
    • You have to take what the market gives you, as that is impossible to know in advance you have to have a target and / or risk management strategy for trailing a stop - that's up to you to decide and fathom out what suits you Using a larger position and then dumping part of it at specific target points is perfectly fine and it can turn a losing position into a winning one to a certain extent  Take the chart below - This is a PERFECT swing trade run and I can confirm that I'm on moves like this all the time in my other accounts At the green line you would NOT have known that a trend was starting - BUT as a trader the set-up was typical of the start of a trend, so you take the trade Stop 1pt under the swing low point (green line), then you let the position just run, moving your stop to the last swing low point until stopped out As you can see the red line would have stopped you out - you would have got back in around the red line too, for the last sections Look at the points that resulted in - having set targets would not have got that result, which is why you need to have a set-up/method and stick to it (you can pyramid on EVERY swing low point too)  Obviously the below ONLY happens when the market trends - it goes skew-wiff in sideways markets The main USA markets are skewed naturally to the upside  - just take a look back from 2009 low to see how true this is and how much one could have stripped from the market using a set and forgot with a tiny tweak every now and then the chart below is the daily Nasdaq100 Every night I run a SCAN on my charting software that looks for Elliott Wave, Waves 2 - that scan picks up markets displaying the below formation to the green line - this formation is Gann's Secondary Reaction Kingfisher Plc had a pretty good run too of late as it works on stocks too To confirm a swing low the market HAS to CLOSE above the prior swing HIGH - then and only then do you move your stop to the most recently confirmed swing low point less 1pt and so on until stopped From a risk point of view on the Nasdaq100 this would have been 160pts and would have taken 2 attempts to enter, being stopped out on the 1st attempt - if placing stop under the reaction low point at the GREEN line it would have cost you 210pts in risk to make 2947 points This is a R:R of 14R using the 210pts as initial risk All you have to do is test EVERY EW 2 or Gann secondary reaction you find, so will work like this and others won't - BUT the ones that DO outweigh the others The one thing you should see is that WHEN the market does as expected after the 1st entry bar it does NOT retrace backwards to the high of the entry so as another safeguard you can shove your stop to breakeven virtually straight away or just below the high of the entry bar - up to you Then IF you're stopped its a very early indication that a trend might not be in play etc I'm willing to bet most people don't make 14R from a trade too The below set-up will only be achieved by the ultra patient and disciplined as most people can't simply wait  My 15 son traded this in his child trust fund this year
×
×