Indices

[Caseynotes]

 

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

 

They did the same thing to Bernie Sanders, makes him look bad but doesn't tell the whole story (he offered to shake her her and she refused)

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-stock-options/investors-see-smoother-path-for-u-s-stocks-as-warrens-election-odds-slip-idUKKBN1ZF17Y

that's right, I saw a clip of that this morning taken after the debate, I'll see if I can dig it out.

[dmedin]

😻

[dmedin]

From Reuters 😱

Quote

With Wall street hitting record after record, there's an uncomfortable feeling making its way through trading floors that this rally is turning into a melt-up and possibly the last hurrah before the burst of a QE-fuelled bubble.

So much so that noting euphoric tech stocks, many pundits are currently drawing comparisons with the period which preceded the collapse dot-com tech bubble in terms of price-to-sales, enterprise value-to-EBITDA, or total market cap-to-GDP ratios.

For instance here:

The founder of NorthmanTrader, Sven Henrich, also argued in a "The Ghosts of 2000" note that the Fed recognised to some extent its responsibility in inflating assets and quoted a Reuters interview of Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan. ...

 

[Ilana]

Good day,

Anybody with any technical analysis on the SA40? I know it does not always follow the bigger indices trend but I like to trade it. So would appreciate some input.

Thanks all

[Caseynotes]

 

32 minutes ago, dmedin said:

many pundits are currently drawing comparisons with the period which preceded the collapse dot-com tech bubble

 

34 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The founder of NorthmanTrader, Sven Henrich, also argued in a "The Ghosts of 2000"

On 14/01/2020 at 14:20, Caseynotes said:

"The Nasdaq Composite is currently 36% above its 200 week moving average. At the 2000 peak, it was 150% above This market is not like the Dot Com bubble."

 

twitter.com › Guruleaks1 › status

 

GuruLeaks on Twitter: "Sven Henrich aka @Northmantrader ...

1.  

23 Mar 2017 - Replying to @Guruleaks1 @NorthmanTrader @CNBC. be aware of market gurus who don't trade with real money. Henrich doesn't manage ...

twitter.com › Guruleaks1 › status

 

GuruLeaks on Twitter: "Be suspect if ur Guru doesn't eat his ...

1.  

23 Mar 2017 - Always ask to see ur gurus verified P/L, many pretend to trade while collecting sub ... Replying to @Guruleaks1 @NorthmanTrader @CNBC.

[Caseynotes]

Dow and S&P continue into clear space. Dax still trying to kick free of key resistance. Ftse still looking for a lift.

[Caseynotes]

Some global economic bellwethers and what's not.

(h/t themarketear)

[Caseynotes]

 

[dmedin]

Nothing doing so far today.

[dmedin]

Will it make a bouncy bouncy off the pivot? 🤔

[Caseynotes]

could well be subdued or even reverse a bit on profit taking due the US bank holiday on Monday. 

[dmedin]

Signs of life now 🐮

Edited January 17, 2020 by dmedin

[cheviot]

Hello remeber me....I m your friendly hungry local BEAR .....Just thought id say Hi ........I m expecting to get a gut full of you bulls soon......Why ?  

Bull case waring a little thin is nt it ?  Locally  in US town ...lack lustre industrial production....an economy that is full of holes.....Yeah i get it....5 G ....super cycle demand for gadgets ...yeah yeah i get it....FANG profits through the roof...Yeah yeah....markets up,,,and its ALWAYS right yeah yeah I get it......

Why is it ...I just do nt buy it....????  Most of the up moves since Jan 2018 have been 3 legs.....So...What ??? Low volume, malaise, laziness, ignore the data, just walk in and buy the market ??  Yeah I get it.....Fed will always bail the market out right ??  Yeah yeah I get it.....No Bear market then....Cancelled for a decade yeah I get it.....Problem is ....Something just does nt feel right .....Is it rates at 1.76% for 10 year US , is it an Oil market that is staggering back lower, is it Copper drifting lower.....Is it analysts expectations which are beginning to look over cooked ???  (And also they want you to buy shares so they get commission!!!) 

I believe the market got over pessimistic in Dec 2018  and is now overly optimistic......I think we are in a 3 leg market top......We are close to finishing Wave B......The market will move RAPIDLY lower  .....WHY WHY WHY ????  2 things turn markets.....Fear and greed.   F O M O has been a large part of the 2019 bull market.....never sell because the market never goes down (for long) ??  Greed to chase FANG higher and higher.......Oh dear it must be fear ....War....I hope not, drought ...we have that....Famine....not in the western world.....Fear of an air born virus ....I hope not ....Check out 1919....The devastation of that flu outbreak caused the great depression .  

You may think I m a nut case....Fine   ...I accept that.   Bully bull ,,,be careful,,,

[Caseynotes]

26 minutes ago, cheviot said:

You may think I m a nut case....Fine   ...I accept that.   Bully bull ,,,be careful,,,

No one's a nut case but maybe some might benefit from taking off the 'Bear Goggles' once a fortnight perhaps? you know, just to clear the vision a bit. 😉 I understand that all EWer's are only ever looking for turns but most of the time just going with the flow is the better option. 

There's no need to be careful when you are just following and not trying to lead, the chart will tell us when the next down turn arrives, great, look forward to it, price always moves faster going down rather than up.

Anyway, what's the best, most leading of leading indicators for the economy???

GDP? no, that's lagging and hardly ever a surprise which is why it's not usually a market mover. PMIs you shout, well yes that is a good one, purchasing managers need to look ahead and determine what a company will be needing in 6 months, but the best? no.

You are a hedge fund manager or pension fund manager, you control Billions, you can afford the best, most expensive and extensive research and analysis money can buy. 

I am not a fund manager, I can't afford sod all and that's exactly what I get, so what do I do? I watch where those in control of billions put their money and currently that is going into the S&P 500 (and the other US indices) and that's what makes the S&P the best leading indicator for the economy. The markets are a discounting mechanism and a predictor of the future. If , after 2 years of consolidation, fund managers backed by all their research have started to buy the S&P (constit. companies) then you should follow, until they stop, simple.

 

 

[cheviot]

35 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

No one's a nut case but maybe some might benefit from taking off the 'Bear Goggles' once a fortnight perhaps? you know, just to clear the vision a bit. 😉 I understand that all EWer's are only ever looking for turns but most of the time just going with the flow is the better option. 

There's no need to be careful when you are just following and not trying to lead, the chart will tell us when the next down turn arrives, great, look forward to it, price always moves faster going down rather than up.

Anyway, what's the best, most leading of leading indicators for the economy???

GDP? no, that's lagging and hardly ever a surprise which is why it's not usually a market mover. PMIs you shout, well yes that is a good one, purchasing managers need to look ahead and determine what a company will be needing in 6 months, but the best? no.

You are a hedge fund manager or pension fund manager, you control Billions, you can afford the best, most expensive and extensive research and analysis money can buy. 

I am not a fund manager, I can't afford sod all and that's exactly what I get, so what do I do? I watch where those in control of billions put their money and currently that is going into the S&P 500 (and the other US indices) and that's what makes the S&P the best leading indicator for the economy. The markets are a discounting mechanism and a predictor of the future. If , after 2 years of consolidation, fund managers backed by all their research have started to buy the S&P (constit. companies) then you should follow, until they stop, simple.

 

 

This was nt personal I speak it as I see it..There are millions of bulls out there so not personal to you......We re all just swimming around trying to make the best of it....So ANYTHING I say is never personal...I m just an individual too,,,,..No rooms full of analysts and billions behind me....I have an economics degree and have been trading since 1986 ......So bin what i say ...I m fine with that...I expected 'feedback'....Buy low,sell high....my friend.  

[cheviot]

Anecdotally ....I have a friend who does big ticket leasing for industrial machines ....£250 k +  All the deals (total £3mn this month)  were set up to be signed this month....All cancelled by 3 different companies....😟  

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, cheviot said:

Anecdotally ....I have a friend who does big ticket leasing for industrial machines ....£250 k +  All the deals (total £3mn this month)  were set up to be signed this month....All cancelled by 3 different companies....😟  

interesting but whereabouts, UK? UK and Ger follow the US lead as they need American consumers to start buying more from the big Dax and Ftse companies before they start to see any upturn.

[cheviot]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

interesting but whereabouts, UK? UK and Ger follow the US lead as they need American consumers to start buying more from the big Dax and Ftse companies before they start to see any upturn.

Big ticket UK..She thinks its just Brexit.....Probably totally true....but these would have been big plant and machinery,,,,CAT s , Daiewo...JCB .etc...  

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, cheviot said:

I have an economics degree

I have one as well (graduated 2005).  Do you remember econometrics?  GDP charts were always shown as trending up, although actual figures vary around the regression line the trend is clear.  If GDP always goes up in the long run, the stock market has to as well.  Simple.  Now, that's just mainstream economics and we all know mainstream economics is bull-locks. 

[cheviot]

Why consider a bear market ? 

 One contributor just hit the nail on the head....Fund managers have billions...invested....Yes all agree on that.  

Why do markets actually crash......because they are all trying to find the exit at the same time....You get price vortexes  when there is no buyer...a gap ...The market becomes one way....Everybody is long,.....Like all the FANG stocks...billions of $$ tied up....They ca nt get out at once....First thing that happens .....Sell index futures against as much of your book as you can....Then start trying to sell the actual stock you own..  Then you get margined on all the long positions....Copper being a favourite margin store....it gets sold, and so on and so on......Then you go on to Business TV telling everyone the market will bounce.....

The weakness of the market is that the fund managers are TOO BIG to manoeuvre .....  That is why I try and look into the distance just a little bit....

[cheviot]

9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I have one as well (graduated 2005).  Do you remember econometrics?  GDP charts were always shown as trending up, although actual figures vary around the regression line the trend is clear.  If GDP always goes up in the long run, the stock market has to as well.  Simple.  Now, that's just mainstream economics and we all know mainstream economics is bull-locks. 

Haha ...I graduated in 1984......Ecometrics love it.....I was always asleep in that class....Very boring lecturer.....During recessions GDP falls....Unemployment rises, stock markets fall....It just goes to show that place Ecomists end to end and they will never reach a conclusion ! 

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, cheviot said:

Why consider a bear market ? 

 One contributor just hit the nail on the head....Fund managers have billions...invested....Yes all agree on that.  

 

1 hour ago, cheviot said:

It just goes to show that place Ecomists end to end and they will never reach a conclusion ! 

Boom boom, that's one of Winston Churchill's isn't it.

With regards the first point we have been watching the open interest in these markets for some time now and have noted how historically it's low meaning the big funds have held only a light position throughout the period of uncertainty and have only just recently started to increase their holdings in equities. That is the very thing that drives a new bull run.

Sure something might come along and trip them up but in the mean time I'll follow the direction their analysis takes them.

[Caseynotes]

A reminder as to what the start of a bull market looks like and what the start of a crash looks like;

h/t to Bostoncharts.

[cheviot]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

 

Boom boom, that's one of Winston Churchill's isn't it.

With regards the first point we have been watching the open interest in these markets for some time now and have noted how historically it's low meaning the big funds have held only a light position throughout the period of uncertainty and have only just recently started to increase their holdings in equities. That is the very thing that drives a new bull run.

Sure something might come along and trip them up but in the mean time I'll follow the direction their analysis takes them.

Do nt follow too closely...RIP 2008  Lehman,   Julius Baer , Salamon Brothers, Chase Manhattan, Chemical Bank,  RBS (on resus)   They are nt as smart as you think.....If they were as smart as you think they would have side stepped the 2008 drop !  

As for equity holdings.....No they do nt hold the equities their clients do !!!!  

[cheviot]

4 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

A reminder as to what the start of a bull market looks like and what the start of a crash looks like;

This bull market started in 2009....Its 11 years old....The good thing is ...It ll all come out in the wash....

[Caseynotes]

Hedge funds and pension funds shift their money between assets and markets and have stayed away from equities until now during this 2 year period of market consolidation, their analysis looks to be telling them to get back in, if so it will spark a new leg up.

[cheviot]

FTSE 100 in a triangle.   Runs out of steam along its top line...Not surprising given Brexit....Needs to clear 7730 to show true impulse.....Also depends on your view of £.  Rallying £ will undermine FTSE .  Enjoy.....NB I did nt mention  a bear market or correction....😣

[cheviot]

Shiller P/e s ....Stretched   Sp 500 bull market actually started in 1927..

[cheviot]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-continues-euphoric-advance-3500-becomes-next-target

Very interesting set of well argued 'caution'  articles 

[Caseynotes]

Zerohedge is well known to us here, he's nothing if not consistent 🙂 (since about 2011 if memory serves).