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9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I have one as well (graduated 2005).  Do you remember econometrics?  GDP charts were always shown as trending up, although actual figures vary around the regression line the trend is clear.  If GDP always goes up in the long run, the stock market has to as well.  Simple.  Now, that's just mainstream economics and we all know mainstream economics is bull-locks.  :P

Haha ...I graduated in 1984......Ecometrics love it.....I was always asleep in that class....Very boring lecturer.....During recessions GDP falls....Unemployment rises, stock markets fall....It just goes to show that place Ecomists end to end and they will never reach a conclusion ! :P

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1 hour ago, cheviot said:

Why consider a bear market ? 

 One contributor just hit the nail on the head....Fund managers have billions...invested....Yes all agree on that.  

 

1 hour ago, cheviot said:

It just goes to show that place Ecomists end to end and they will never reach a conclusion ! :P

Boom boom, that's one of Winston Churchill's isn't it.

With regards the first point we have been watching the open interest in these markets for some time now and have noted how historically it's low meaning the big funds have held only a light position throughout the period of uncertainty and have only just recently started to increase their holdings in equities. That is the very thing that drives a new bull run.

Sure something might come along and trip them up but in the mean time I'll follow the direction their analysis takes them.

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A reminder as to what the start of a bull market looks like and what the start of a crash looks like;

h/t to Bostoncharts.

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3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

 

Boom boom, that's one of Winston Churchill's isn't it.

With regards the first point we have been watching the open interest in these markets for some time now and have noted how historically it's low meaning the big funds have held only a light position throughout the period of uncertainty and have only just recently started to increase their holdings in equities. That is the very thing that drives a new bull run.

Sure something might come along and trip them up but in the mean time I'll follow the direction their analysis takes them.

Do nt follow too closely...RIP 2008  Lehman,   Julius Baer , Salamon Brothers, Chase Manhattan, Chemical Bank,  RBS (on resus)   They are nt as smart as you think.....If they were as smart as you think they would have side stepped the 2008 drop !  

As for equity holdings.....No they do nt hold the equities their clients do !!!!  

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4 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

A reminder as to what the start of a bull market looks like and what the start of a crash looks like;

This bull market started in 2009....Its 11 years old....The good thing is ...It ll all come out in the wash....

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Hedge funds and pension funds shift their money between assets and markets and have stayed away from equities until now during this 2 year period of market consolidation, their analysis looks to be telling them to get back in, if so it will spark a new leg up.

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FTSE 100 in a triangle.   Runs out of steam along its top line...Not surprising given Brexit....Needs to clear 7730 to show true impulse.....Also depends on your view of £.  Rallying £ will undermine FTSE .  Enjoy.....NB I did nt mention  a bear market or correction....😣1279795424_FTSE100_20200118_17_46.png.f22e1aacc82228b44ce70a7f8a648fef.png

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Shiller P/e s ....Stretched   Sp 500 bull market actually started in 1927..sp-500-historical-chart-data-2020-01-18-macrotrends.thumb.png.7ae33e127c4598797ffa4849f9655c95.png1166785898_download(1).thumb.png.69e63e4dbc52cad7169ba4d49fb4fbbe.png

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Zerohedge is well known to us here, he's nothing if not consistent 🙂 (since about 2011 if memory serves). 

 

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Hahaha oh yes, Tyler Durden, the archetypal Alpha Male who single-handedly will bring down the whole debt-fuelled financial system 😎  One of the best movies ever!

Edited by dmedin
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On 18/01/2020 at 17:51, cheviot said:

FTSE 100 in a triangle.   Runs out of steam along its top line

 

A consolidation triangle, before resuming the prior trend 🐮

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Markets held fast over Friday and the weekend. This week sees rate decisions from Japan, Canada and the EU plus Flash PMIs from the EU states and the UK.

Daily Dax and Dow and weekly Ftse and S&P;

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11 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

A consolidation triangle, before resuming the prior trend 🐮

I d say ...You might as well have a cable pozzy....££ up FTSE down, and vice  versa...BHP reports this week and ftse full of miners and oilies...take your pick.

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  • 10 year US rates :  This is the conundrum :  IF the bulls are right and stocks have further to go up then bonds are a total sell.   But as bonds fall and yields rise that will put pressure on stocks to go down unless earnings can rise in line with the rising bond yield.  
  • If the goldy locks economy of low rates and low growth is right and rates have further to fall, then US stocks are over priced.....Because expectations are built in for endless rises in stock earnings....The US economy is at full employment...with ultra low rates......
  • .So what happens when ....employment starts to rise.....dropping rates...has nt worked so far to re-inflate the economy..Fiscal measures....The US gov deficit is at full stretch.....They have nt fixed the roof while the sun shone have they ????  I think the US and Fed has painted itself into a corner which they ca nt get out of.....Remember Goldy locks , has 3 bears !!  10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart-2020-01-20-macrotrends.thumb.png.33dff1bd3589338f9e686db13e1cd98c.png

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58 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Markets held fast over Friday and the weekend. This week sees rate decisions from Japan, Canada and the EU plus Flash PMIs from the EU states and the UK.

Daily Dax and Dow and weekly Ftse and S&P;

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Just remember that US index futures will close early, 18:00 GMT. The will reopen at 23:00 GMT. 

Cash indices will be priced but they will have out of our hours spread. 

This is due to the US federal holiday marking the birthday of Dr Martin Luther King Jr.

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This will make you laugh; 

[SAN DIEGO (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve could find itself fighting too-low inflation for years to come, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Friday, and may need a new policy framework to lift inflation back up to the Fed’s 2% goal.

“We don’t have a really good understanding of why it’s been so difficult to get inflation back up,” Daly said at the annual American Economics Association meeting in San Diego.]

 

Turns out the top economists in the country don't understand how modern economics work, but never mind Modern Monetary Theory is coming.

Ronald Reagan said back in the 80's that the national debt was big enough to take care of itself and guess what, he was right. 😳

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Looks like today is going to be 'one of those days' - low volume, price up and down and all over the place, avoid like the MFing plague.

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Germany 30 looks like it is getting a bit of momentum, come on - let's get to 13600 at least 🐮

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Just bought FTSE ...Yes me....the biggest bear you ve ever seen,,,,,Got a +Ftse-Sp 500 spread effectively 1858279155_FTSE100_20200120_12_02.png.b8dcb02c02d2bd860bffab6539cc2038.png

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5 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Just bought FTSE ...Yes me....the biggest bear you ve ever seen,,,,,Got a +Ftse-Sp 500 spread effectively 

they are all trying to push up now off this base.

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3 hours ago, dmedin said:

Slow day today 😑

it was slow especially the afternoon with no US session but the market held up well enough and still looks in reasonable shape to test recent highs on the proper week start up tomorrow.

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878594266_Japan225_20200121_06_42.thumb.png.5577ebc6faff43286be7ba2150e5bcb0.pngFTSE   Nikkie  225  Dax 30,  all showing symptoms of double topping on their old highs....

 

Edited by cheviot
added chart

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To (miss) quote Bill McLaren  (RIP)  Stocks are trading...'like a wet haggis'..

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9 minutes ago, cheviot said:

To (miss) quote Bill McLaren  (RIP)  Stocks are trading...'like a wet haggis'..

They all followed Dow when it dropped on the 1am hourly bar, the only thing I can find that it's attributed to is news SARs type virus outbreak in China has reportedly spread to other countries.

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Edited by Caseynotes

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WRAPUP 1-China virus outbreak spooks global markets as fourth death reported

04:46
    * Fourth person dies from pneumonia in city of Wuhan 
    * More than 220 cases confirmed, mostly in China
    * Asian shares fall amid fears of outbreak's spread
    * Australia, Singapore strengthen screening measures

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Frankfurt open looking at an attempt to recover, the second news report on IG as in the daily dashboard post below on Japan seeing receding global risk. The battle of 2 opposing headlines.

UPDATE 4 – BOJ holds fire, nudges up growth f'cast on receding global risks

07:30
  • BOJ keeps interest rate targets, guidance unchanged
  • Board nudges up economic growth forecasts
  • Report says global risks receding somewhat

H1 charts;

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The problem with a health issues like a SARS outbreak is that it is un-quantifiable...and the markets have been priced for perfection and as we all know perfection does nt happen..

.The big issues for US500 and Dow is FANG begins its reports with Netflix and Apple over the next week....If earnings are nt showing expansion or they miss ...The market will drop hard ....

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