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Back to our FTSE triangle.  Bear case is that its a B wave to 7670 failed then must test bottom of triangle.  Watch for the the most aggressive moves....are all down within Triangle.  C leg will be a test of 7450 region and lower.  Sorry I said the Bear word....I ll try not to in future....784092267_FTSE100_20200121_10_43.png.3526318c52931f84a27c8bbf9174ec67.png

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no need to worry, people have been telling us for years on end we were about to enter the big bear market, still waiting.

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1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

no need to worry, people have been telling us for years on end we were about to enter the big bear market, still waiting.

No its too early for big bear super cycle as there are too many bears out there..For the market to collapse the whole market must be the wrong way round..i.e There are too many trying to pick tops or who are uninvested in the market When the market believes it can t loose, then it ll loose....Great turns have been silver in 1980 and cable in 1986..I think we re-test SP 3000 ,  In a C leg that ive been spouting on about...There could be an aggressive sell off down to test 2600 ,   That might be the end of C with a move back up from there, that gets euphoric etc etc....Hits the top of big trend lines again , then market will be ready to sell off big style....a years time maybe ????  2 nd Trump win ...

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4 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

dax trying to punch it's way up out of the box now;

image.thumb.png.16a7432c1f3dde20e0c54266d0c01880.png

Yanks will try and close the o/night gap  at around 3322, pick up their abandoned baby , also reasonable channel support on the hrly came in at 3309 ....

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I think there was a "second entry" setup for a sell just before the largest bear candle on the 5 min Dax chart.

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2 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

I think there was a "second entry" setup for a sell just before the largest bear candle on the 5 min Dax chart.

back at 7:30 and the rejection of S1 for a retest of S2?

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3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

back at 7:30 and the rejection of S1 for a retest of S2?

Yes, and it was more likely to fall 50 points than rise 50 points there. Edited the first test was at  7.30 and the more reliable second test was at 8.00

Edited by AndrewS
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11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Benefit of hindsight? 🤔

market open is nearly always a problem especially when there are 2 (Frank and Lon), often they will counter each other but today they rather complimented each other.

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early talk from US traders is of fading the panic move which has so far been the case in the London session and usually not a bad idea, especially as after the initial market moving headline there has been little follow up news. 

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3 hours ago, dmedin said:

Wait for the earnings... wait for the earnings... wait for the earnings :P

Tbh...Earning s are important but if these markets were pricing in expected earnings growth, they d 10-20% lower.   Even Apple /FANG stox will only yield marginally higher y on y......The rest is all about enthusiasm , capital growth tax cuts etc etc.....Nowhere else to put hot money.....The really smart money is leaving the stock market every time it goes up.....

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21 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Tbh...Earning s are important but if these markets were pricing in expected earnings growth, they d 10-20% lower.   Even Apple /FANG stox will only yield marginally higher y on y......The rest is all about enthusiasm , capital growth tax cuts etc etc.....Nowhere else to put hot money.....The really smart money is leaving the stock market every time it goes up.....

 

If the money came out of the stock market and was crystallized as expenditure in the real economy then we could solve world poverty, revolutionize energy and transportation ... but it could also be inflationary.

The only reason it's not is because the rich hoard all their money and never spend it on anything worthwhile :)

Edited by dmedin
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14 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

If the money came out of the stock market and was crystallized as expenditure in the real economy then we could solve world poverty, revolutionize energy and transportation ... but it could also be inflationary.

The only reason it's not is because the rich hoard all their money and never spend it on anything worthwhile :)

world poverty is all ready being solved, by capitalism funnily enough, down 50% in the last 2 decades 🥳🥳

https://humanprogress.org/article.php?p=1287

Edited by Caseynotes
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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

early talk from US traders is of fading the panic move which has so far been the case in the London session and usually not a bad idea, especially as after the initial market moving headline there has been little follow up news. 

and they did , Dow M15 chart;

image.thumb.png.f3a9a8cc8b7cd62b13648c7240d47df3.png

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Indices selling off heavily again ... (Everything is selling off hahaha such fun)

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Oil = SELL

Gold = SELL

FX = SELL

SHARES = SELL

!!!SELL ALL THINGS!!!

 

then

 

BUY ALL THINGS! 😻

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The important thing is....Buy LOW  and sell HIGH....That may be over 5 minutes or 5 years....Have a trading strategy and stick to it.... Some markets are great for 5 minutes  Yen/Eu, gold  for example.....Others take a little longer .....SP 500, £  ...hours or months.......Individual shares.....Probably months.....  Black box or gut feeling...does nt matter as long as you BUY LOW SELL HIGH.....Even a bull can get bearish....short term....or a bear to get a little friendly to the market.....Whatever it is...

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So who s right : T Bonds are bid up showing the way to a weaker economy, stocks are also bid showing a stronger economy....?????  Whichever way T Bonds break (out of current range)23397015_UltraTreasuryBondDecimalised_20200121_15_40.png.342bb573e460cf5184586c400f56ed48.png will push equities 'tother way....

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Key day reversal for SP 500 IF US close below 3316.7 .. 

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Looking relatively bullish with less than an hour to go in the US session, especially on a day of headlines re; coronavirus, identified in 4 countries outside China including the first case detected in the US reported just a few hours ago. 

S&P daily;

image.thumb.png.4b9733d187b50756788779d41241d427.png

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