Indices

[CharlotteIG]

5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

For US & UK

09:00 GMT:

GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) PREL , Prev: 47.5, Est: 48.9

GBP Markit Services PMI (Jan) PREL , Prev: 50, Est: 51

 

14:45 GMT:

 

USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) PREL , Prev: 52.4, Est: 52.5

USD Markit Services PMI (Jan) PREL , Prev: 52.8, Est: 52.9

 

[Caseynotes]

70% of investors think equities will rise >5% this year

(survey at GS macro conference in Hong Kong this week) via themarketear

[dmedin]

Buy and hold then? 🤓

[Caseynotes]

Dax raced up to tag R2 after a pause at R1 and currently waiting on Dow which is stuck between the pivot and R1.

M5 charts;

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Buy and hold then? 🤓

The 8am power candle breakout past near term resistance was the buy signal (buy high, sell higher). Some would have stayed in, I got out at each R level and then re-entered so 2 legs up at plus 15 each then a minus 10 when price failed to take R2. Waiting for a break of R2.

[dmedin]

Heading back down to the pivots, and oil dropping again 😱

[Caseynotes]

14 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Heading back down to the pivots, and oil dropping again 😱

 

ps sorry about the alert but am trying out a new indicator and the alert got stuck lol.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Caseynotes

[dmedin]

The markets are selling off HARD ... get ready to buy the bargains at the bottom

[dmedin]

Here comes the morning star, bonnie loons 🤓

[Caseynotes]

A 1% correction on a Friday, just a typical pre-weekend pullback then.

Steve Burns @SJosephBurns

"The stock market had 3 corrections of at least 5% in 2019, that is an average year for price action. The odds are we will have 5% pullbacks this year as well and they are likely to be buying opportunities not times to think the market is going to crash."

The key to deciding when a move in the opposite direction is done and time to get in to continue with trend is to just imagine you are riding the down move, you stop reloading or adding in when it stops working, wait for that and then look for the next pullback to get aboard for the trip back up.

[Caseynotes]

[Caseynotes]

The indices have dropped a bit on the weekend chart probably due to the continuing virus scare.

I saw this go through just an hour ago and it surprised me, I think those numbers may be a major under counting.

Yesterday afternoon I watched a couple of twitter videos out of China one clearly showing wrapped bodies in hospital corridors amongst dozens of sick sitting leaning against the walls. In another a nurse (in disguise) was talking about 90,000 cases in her area alone.

China have now locked down over 40 cities, ... because of just 41 dead? 

 

 Conflict News @Conflicts  1h  MAP: #WuhanCoronovirus infections in East Asia. Currently 1355 confirmed cases, 41 dead.

 

[dmedin]

Hmmmmm .... yes indeed.  Not good 😢

[dmedin]

Next week there is an enormous deluge of earnings releases.  So is it wise to keep any positions open overnight on any of the indices?  🤔 

Edited January 25, 2020 by dmedin

[HPbrand]

12 hours ago, dmedin said:

Next week there is an enormous deluge of earnings releases.  So is it wise to keep any positions open overnight on any of the indices?  🤔 

Thinking it through, the likelihood of a hard pullback or going sideways is more likely than record breaking highs on US Indices in the immediate couple of weeks ahead.

It would seem too obvious for the majority to bet up given highs after highs so recently. Surely they need to pause a bit so we have the opportunity to doubt ourselves.

 

[dmedin]

The weekend indices are sinking:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health/more-than-2000-now-infected-with-coronavirus-56-dead-in-china-idUKKBN1ZP02D

[cheviot]

On 22/01/2020 at 14:59, Caseynotes said:

imagine spending 3 months trying to short that chart 😭🚑🛌

I have tried not to be personal on this blog.  Exactly a week ago I predicted a top to the market...That is /was my opinion and I still believe we have a medium term top to certainly the US markets for all the valid reasons I have stated before.  

I realise Casey notes I have a different opinion to you.  Your replies have been ridiculing me at best .....I have seen many market crashes over 30 years of trading FX/indx markets.  I have described from personal  first hand experience, that following the herd can be a precarious path.  A dealing room in full panic mode, reacts with fear ....sell at any cost... positions so large and so one way , institutions ca not get out. Hence the market hits an air pocket  where there is literally panic. 

So in future when somebody disagrees with you , perhaps listen to their arguments first...before ridiculing them.  

[Caseynotes]

50 minutes ago, cheviot said:

I have tried not to be personal on this blog.  Exactly a week ago I predicted a top to the market...That is /was my opinion and I still believe we have a medium term top to certainly the US markets for all the valid reasons I have stated before.  

I realise Casey notes I have a different opinion to you.  Your replies have been ridiculing me at best .....I have seen many market crashes over 30 years of trading FX/indx markets.  I have described from personal  first hand experience, that following the herd can be a precarious path.  A dealing room in full panic mode, reacts with fear ....sell at any cost... positions so large and so one way , institutions ca not get out. Hence the market hits an air pocket  where there is literally panic. 

So in future when somebody disagrees with you , perhaps listen to their arguments first...before ridiculing them.  

Actually this is not a blog, it's just a particular thread, one of many, on an interactive forum. One of the reasons I started this thread was to highlight the absurdity of the herd following mentality that are the top pickers. 

I have seen many market corrections over the last 30 years, not crashes because there haven't actually been many,  and as I've mentioned before, over the last ten years not a week has gone by when someone didn't tell me the top was in and the down turn was about to begin, every week  -  for 10 years. Incredulously the same souls keep coming back to repeat it time and time again, there are peeps on this forum who have been calling the top continuously since the forum started over 4 years ago, can you believe that, they just don't care how many times they get it wrong so long as they'll be right one day. It's like some kind of a derangement.

So each time I am happy to give the other perspective, I'm happy to tell readers 'don't be one of the herd', don't bother trying to predict the top, in fact don't bother trying to predict at all. Learn instead to follow the market because there is surely no one here big enough to lead it. 
If you have taken that as me ridiculing you personally then I'm sorry, I'm actually ridiculing the whole top picking herd.

Retail short/long net positions for the last 3 months. The HERD have been consistently SHORT for the last 3 months of this continuous up trend, and not just a little, a lot, look at the numbers Longs in the few hundreds, Shorts in the thousands. In fact as I've reported in this thread regularly, the herd were net short for the whole of 2019.

No wonder 75%, the herd, loses money, they are forever trying to pick the top.

 

[cheviot]

54 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

etail short/long net positions for the last 3 months. The HERD have been consistently SHORT for the last 3 months of this continuous up trend, and not just a little, a lot, look at the number

The shorts are n't short,  they are hedging their cash positions.  

If you care to look at the put/call ratio last week it slipped into record negative territory, i.e The option market was massively long (middle of last week).  Volatitility also hit recent lows last week  ( now moving rapidly higher) 

Anyway.  The markets now have to re-adjust their sights .....Is 2020 now going to be a year when the global economy falls short of expectations and P/e are way over cooked or is this just a bump in the road?  

The bond markets have moved in to 'recession mode' with falling rates , the next stop for the ten year is around 1.55% , with 2 s 10s falling back to around 20 bp as of friday. 

The fundamentals and the technicals within the market may lock horns to produce a heady mixture.  Markets and people behave irrationally.  In this case it is not the number of fatalities, it is how people react to an external threat such as this virus. And how they react economically. 

Viruses are un-predicatable.  But the most intractable problem is : Humans facing fear of health problems behave differently economically to ones going about their 'normal' business.   Purchasing new i-phones and other goods become irrelevant to whether you and those you care about are under a health threat.  Will the 40+ million people in Hubei be going to work, spending money on 'stuff' ....or will the very essence off living become paramount. Food, water, staying alive...After that comes the economic fall out....Chinese debt (within secondary banks) has been growing at an astonishing rate.  

In Dec 2018 the market was way over pessimistic ( on reasonable fundamentals) , In Jan 2020 it got itself way over optimistic, (on fundamentals that were not much better other than the Fed pumping in liquidity at the short end which has ended up stuffed into the equity market)  like a sling shot, the US 500 will most likely go back to pessimism mode and price in a tough year ....Test 3000 possibly 2600 or 2200 .   

[Caseynotes]

2 hours ago, cheviot said:

The shorts are n't short,  they are hedging their cash positions.  

If you care to look at the put/call ratio last week it slipped into record negative territory, i.e The option market was massively long (middle of last week).  Volatitility also hit recent lows last week  ( now moving rapidly higher) 

Anyway.  The markets now have to re-adjust their sights .....Is 2020 now going to be a year when the global economy falls short of expectations and P/e are way over cooked or is this just a bump in the road?  

The bond markets have moved in to 'recession mode' with falling rates , the next stop for the ten year is around 1.55% , with 2 s 10s falling back to around 20 bp as of friday. 

The fundamentals and the technicals within the market may lock horns to produce a heady mixture.  Markets and people behave irrationally.  In this case it is not the number of fatalities, it is how people react to an external threat such as this virus. And how they react economically. 

Viruses are un-predicatable.  But the most intractable problem is : Humans facing fear of health problems behave differently economically to ones going about their 'normal' business.   Purchasing new i-phones and other goods become irrelevant to whether you and those you care about are under a health threat.  Will the 40+ million people in Hubei be going to work, spending money on 'stuff' ....or will the very essence off living become paramount. Food, water, staying alive...After that comes the economic fall out....Chinese debt (within secondary banks) has been growing at an astonishing rate.  

In Dec 2018 the market was way over pessimistic ( on reasonable fundamentals) , In Jan 2020 it got itself way over optimistic, (on fundamentals that were not much better other than the Fed pumping in liquidity at the short end which has ended up stuffed into the equity market)  like a sling shot, the US 500 will most likely go back to pessimism mode and price in a tough year ....Test 3000 possibly 2600 or 2200 .   

I don't think many retail clients with their on average £1000 accounts have hedged that by taking out S&P shorts tbh.

Looking at the COT data for the S&P open interest is still relatively low so not really 'massively' long (see chart).

The bond market has been falling for years as I've discussed in the Modern Monetary Theory thread and is a sign of long term changes in global economics rather than near term pessimism.

The 2s and 10s spread and yields in general have actually pulled back from recession mode lately (see chart). 

And looking at the weekend S&P there doesn't seem to be any panic selling but rather a normal correction on the back of new news regarding a spreading virus which may have an affect on near term economics, very reasonable I would have thought.

[dmedin]

An exciting week up ahead, bonnie loons 😎

[dmedin]

Quote

Ken Mahoney, chief executive of Mahoney Asset Management in Chestnut Ridge, New York, said Netflix faces tough new competition from companies including Apple and Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) but the rest of the group have “wide moats,” including consistent growth and strong balance sheets. But he is not buying more of the group, arguing that valuations are too high.

“I’d look to add on some of these names in a pullback,” said Mahoney.

😉

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/wall-street-week-ahead-hopes-are-high-for-tech-stock-cadillacs-so-are-their-prices-idUKKBN1ZN24Hhttps://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/wall-street-week-ahead-hopes-are-high-for-tech-stock-cadillacs-so-are-their-prices-idUKKBN1ZN24H

[cheviot]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

And looking at the weekend S&P there doesn't seem to be any panic selling but rather a normal correction on the back of new news regarding a spreading virus which may have an affect on near term economics, very reasonable I would have thought.

Steady nett selling is more likely , with relief rallies.  Old fashioned non techy charting would suggest that we had a key day reversal in SP 500 on Friday so that is the end of that trend....  

'The known knowns , the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns....' Never a truer word spoken.  

[Caseynotes]

The indices are certainly not showing panic selling and in fact looks more like a normal monthly correction, today will be telling as to whether the slide will be contained or not. The top pickers are back out with their usual predictions, one red candle = coming recession, two red candles clearly indicates the end of the world is nigh.

Over the weekend there was lots of scrambling about for historic comparisons and the SARS outbreak was the go to data pile which didn't actually cause world wide economic meltdown (see bottom chart). 

[Caseynotes]

Recent outbreaks SARS and Zika; Their news story count and indices reactions.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow moving sideways trapped just below the daily pivot.

M15 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dow early test of support at R1, see if this holds, Dax followed down to it's own R2.

[dmedin]

Zut alors, Samwise Gamgee - it's a correction all right 😱  The slightest excuse and the indices and commodities sell off like a MoFo.  Buy and hold is only for people who are willing to wait it out for five years or more and only look at the charts once every six months ... or buy options ... not for people who are using stop losses ...

Edited January 27, 2020 by dmedin

[Kodiak]

Short term trend down

I expected the bulls to try to close the gap so i did not take the short 

a well better luck next time

[Caseynotes]

8 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

I expected the bulls to try to close the gap so i did not take the short 

a well better luck next time

A gap fill could still happen but need to secure support first.