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‚ÄúWe did put some equity call exposure in the portfolio coming into the year, because if one of the risks is a bubble developing then why not try to participate?‚ÄĚ

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-markets/from-black-swan-to-bubble-as-virus-concerns-fade-investors-worry-about-a-melt-up-idUKKBN2010K0

 

 

A nice wee bit of in and out is good for you :D Just make sure to take precautions :P

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58 minutes ago, dmedin said:

yes the press gotta do what they gotta do, grab you by the fears and greeds.

22 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Trying to time the market’s declines and betting against more gains has been a losing strategy over the more than decade-long bull run in stocks, despite repeated worries about rich valuations and overexuberance. 

yes as you know¬†I had noticed,¬†but what was everyone else¬†looking at?¬†¬†ūüõź‚ôą‚ôĆ‚úīÔłŹ‚úīÔłŹūüćĄūüćĄūü§©

Edited by Caseynotes
  • Great! 1
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Dow in 5 th wave triangle 

Short term 5 th wave triangle....High volatility.....differing push and pulls in the market....

Dear bulls.....I aint saying the end of the world is nigh..... So do nt worry about deep long positions......go on holiday for a month......Bears need a play in the park from time to time......  427760460_WallStreet_20200207_12_47.png.0b3523bd214388e7dae254144b50f61b.png

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5 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Dow in 5 th wave triangle 

Short term 5 th wave triangle....High volatility.....differing push and pulls in the market....

Dear bulls.....I aint saying the end of the world is nigh..... So do nt worry about deep long positions......go on holiday for a month......Bears need a play in the park from time to time......  427760460_WallStreet_20200207_12_47.png.0b3523bd214388e7dae254144b50f61b.png

lol, but your MACD has just turned up¬†again, 3 more months of uptrend isn't it?¬†ūüĎÄ

  • Thought provoking 1
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50 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

lol, but your MACD has just turned up¬†again, 3 more months of uptrend isn't it?¬†ūüĎÄ

RSI in the 60 s ...MACD probably wo nt retest highs, but I believe that DJ 30 will set a test of 30 000 , it may fail....i do nt know but then chickens will come home to roost, pigs will fly and cows will come home....and the bears will do what we do best ....**** all over the lovely up trend hahahahaha !!!! 

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12 minutes ago, cheviot said:

RSI in the 60 s ...MACD probably wo nt retest highs, but I believe that DJ 30 will set a test of 30 000 , it may fail....i do nt know but then chickens will come home to roost, pigs will fly and cows will come home....and the bears will do what we do best ....**** all over the lovely up trend hahahahaha !!!! 

It'll be nice to short for a while, don't get much of a chance very often but I don't know, that treasury bond has come a long way since the lows way back in Aug 2019.

image.thumb.png.6bc6dfe0528c7aa785054dade252566c.png

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12 minutes ago, cheviot said:

6 month 10 year yields close to inversion again !   That ll spook the poor little bullies ! 

The bond market has been changing for decades now, new era economics. The yield curves don't look bad considering and definitely better than it did in Aug last year.

image.thumb.png.e35a8323814b75941b6de52c52d9cfe9.png

944103388_10yield.thumb.jpg.1d017759d249dc11b33471cca7b39027.jpg

 

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The tone at Reuters has certainly shifted now that oil prices are still falling.  Interesting psychology.  (Reuters must have a vested interest in rising oil prices because it's obsessed with oil.)  Now it is very negative sounding on the stock market and it's even running articles about how stock market gains mainly go to the very rich.  Marxists!

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For the past 2 years, it appears to be more and more difficult for us retail traders to hit jackpot trades safely. Anyone have this experience?

Going forward, I have decided to shift focus to mainly small profits through many trades rather than holding positions overnight. Less potential profits for sure on paper but safer and easier.

Edited by HPbrand
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27 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

For the past 2 years, it appears to be more and more difficult for us retail traders to hit jackpot trades safely. Anyone have this experience?

 

That's true.  A buy-and-hold S&P 500 ETF on the other hand would have done the trick nicely over the last two years.  One could even have made drawdowns far less painful by 'averaging' money in every month rather than investing in single, larger one-offs.

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14 hours ago, HPbrand said:

For the past 2 years, it appears to be more and more difficult for us retail traders to hit jackpot trades safely. Anyone have this experience?

Going forward, I have decided to shift focus to mainly small profits through many trades rather than holding positions overnight. Less potential profits for sure on paper but safer and easier.

 

14 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

That's true.  A buy-and-hold S&P 500 ETF on the other hand would have done the trick nicely over the last two years.  One could even have made drawdowns far less painful by 'averaging' money in every month rather than investing in single, larger one-offs.

image.thumb.png.5fdc21ea2741c21b433762849129cbc6.png

Everyone can draw their charts differently but throughout this thread my contention was that this was a 2 year consolidation block (started with the start of the trade war) following the 1 and a quarter year uptrend (started after the Trump election). Because we entered the consolidation pattern in an uptrend that was always the most likely direction to breakout of it. To my mind we have only just broken out quite recently.

So yes HP there was a need to check strategy and be more flexible trading for that very long period the market was unable to make new highs but that pattern was broken mid 2019.

The chart also says that anyone entering a buy and hold strategy in the last quarter of 2017 would have spent a lot of time under a serious amount of water, not many would have held through that.

Nothing works all the time, pick your strategy to match the chart (market) in front of you, always start at the top (highest time frame) and work down to the chart you intend to trade on.  

  • Like 1
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9 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

 

image.thumb.png.5fdc21ea2741c21b433762849129cbc6.png

Everyone can draw their charts differently but throughout this thread my contention was that this was a 2 year consolidation block (started with the start of the trade war) following the 1 and a quarter year uptrend (started after the Trump election). Because we entered the consolidation pattern in an uptrend that was always the most likely direction to breakout of it. To my mind we have only just broken out quite recently.

So yes HP there was a need to check strategy and be more flexible trading for that very long period the market was unable to make new highs but that pattern was broken mid 2019.

The chart also says that anyone entering a buy and hold strategy in the last quarter of 2017 would have spent a lot of time under a serious amount of water, not many would have held through that.

Nothing works all the time, pick your strategy to match the chart (market) in front of you, always start at the top (highest time frame) and work down to the chart you intend to trade on.  

 

 

It'll take me several years to win back what I've lost from SB if I'm lucky, but I recouped all my losses on S&P 500 ETF within 12 months and would have made big profit if I hadn't sold off.

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13 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

 

It'll take me several years to win back what I've lost from SB if I'm lucky, but I recouped all my losses on S&P 500 ETF within 12 months and would have made big profit if I hadn't sold off.

yes as you know picking entries with hindsight helps but the chart clearly shows that for 2 years 'buy and hold' was not a profitable strategy and the weaker hands would have been flushed out, several times. B&H is more an investment strategy than a trading one, B&H is what you do on your 200k retirement fund, trading is what you do to try to get one.

 

  • Thought provoking 1
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S&P YoY earnings growth, increasing.

image.png.efe9e586018028f5e863f6feec0add4d.png

Probability of recession decreasing.

image.png.7bf3215273c9d30e3cb392d29a50803c.png

(JPM)

Global manufacturing PMIs in expansion.

image.png.ab96bf4501bf52d990407307d1928a0a.png

(Morgan Stanley)

see no recession, hear no recession

US recession fears have generally subsided, although there’s been some talk of a slowdown in payrolls and what that could mean. While things may have appeared a bit squirrely for a moment in December, jobless claims (our preferred dipstick for economic duress) have decelerated again, and as the chart below shows, the current period really looks nothing like what was seen in the past three recessions. (themarketear)

image.png.9bcf35d27c320175c3b65f988102c2a5.png

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On 04/02/2020 at 08:25, Caseynotes said:

US indices looking to continue the build off support, no major news today. US Democrat party caucus voting started in Iowa and Biden scraps through at the last minute by scrounging votes. Obama and Clinton have already started on their 'shoot down Bernie' campaign. 

image.thumb.png.69609538fa8ee64336a3076b9c96751d.png

image.thumb.png.4bd8a2c5eb7308a0cc7f8898930b1a02.png

image.png.5b760a8579d46a5f3f5d2b1022a2eba2.png

The Democrats should have tried more to persuade Joe Kennedy to give Trump a match

Instead of this old geezers and Buttman

https://kennedy.house.gov/

 

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To be fair, it's long past time for some income redistribution and Bernie Sanders is the guy to do it.

You know that old saying, if one person wins all the money at the casino the games stop.  So he has to give some money away in order to get the games going again.  America needs another 'New deal'  and this time it will be focused on green energy, reskilling the labour force, letting everyone who wants to own their own home, and building top-quality public transportation links between the big American cities - just like China has already done in record time.

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Massive job losses may not necessarily impact the stock market, because the rich are backed by unlimited free money from the central banks, and they don't give a sh!t how many ordinary working people lose their livelihoods so long as asset prices keep appreciating.  At some point though I'm sure the underlying weaknesses of the 'real' economy will become impossible to ignore, and yet another immanent contradiction of capitalism will create another crisis.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-daimler-layoffs/daimler-to-cut-15000-jobs-as-cost-cuts-intensify-handelsblatt-idUKKBN2030N9

Edited by dmedin
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14 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Massive job losses may not necessarily impact the stock market, because the rich are backed by unlimited free money from the central banks, and they don't give a sh!t how many ordinary working people lose their livelihoods so long as asset prices keep appreciating.  At some point though I'm sure the underlying weaknesses of the 'real' economy will become impossible to ignore, and yet another immanent contradiction of capitalism will create another crisis.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-daimler-layoffs/daimler-to-cut-15000-jobs-as-cost-cuts-intensify-handelsblatt-idUKKBN2030N9

er, the unemployment rate for the EU continues it's steady decline

image.png.2cc1aff324b3f34092a82ed37ff3c6f9.png

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