Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Oh dear the top pickers are out again, these markets don't have a top, in 50 years and price at 50,000 still won't be the top. They been calling the top for the last 100 years. To think if price is high on the screen then it must turn and head for the bottom is well , ... just no. You'd have to be a dooms dayer who's willing to miss out on every run up for years on end, oh wait, they do.

There are occasional corrections for sure but why would anyone sit on their hands for months waiting for those.

 Longer time frame traders join trends and move their stop, if approp, at the end of each day, sorted, they don't stay out of trends expecting a reversal each day, again just no.

1984475898_ThisistheTOP.thumb.png.44e6e6428dc7916f74c1a5c1eec6d27c.png

  • Like 1
  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Dow with near term resistance at 29527 and support at 29362 and been going sideways during the London session, Dax in similar mode so waiting for the US open to see which level gets tested.

M5 charts;

image.thumb.png.c9f5f5b32864f848c404029999814c48.png

Share this post


Link to post

🧐  Not really going anywhere just now.

Share this post


Link to post

Looks like another slow and sh!tty day of going nowhere

Share this post


Link to post

Buy and holding now bonnie loon 🐮🤓

Share this post


Link to post

NFP today sees US indices at their ATHs, Dax getting aboard though Ftse still languishes in uncertainty.

The Dow held up yesterday afternoon by the weekly chart resistance level (red) even though it had broken it in the morning, on lesser time frame levels that usually means the stops have gone but on the big time frame levels the big players will still use them to reload.

The ADP nfp on Wednesday was a big beat may hint at today's figure, don't always correlate but have done well for the last few months.

Daily charts;

image.thumb.png.5f695c60a77a05ea2b05554ce3d56199.png

image.thumb.png.942083ccdc83d8e1f284d0f949f72897.png

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Check of support on the Frankfurt open for Dax and Dow, Dow starting below the daily pivot.

M15 charts;

image.thumb.png.9774d217e4fb4f4ac9b55938621066a0.png

Share this post


Link to post
2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

So no action till 13:30, boring 🤠

correct, a leisurely stroll on down to support is all.

M15 charts;

image.thumb.png.4692110d423875ecaa5201bd7af3809f.png

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Quote

“We did put some equity call exposure in the portfolio coming into the year, because if one of the risks is a bubble developing then why not try to participate?”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-markets/from-black-swan-to-bubble-as-virus-concerns-fade-investors-worry-about-a-melt-up-idUKKBN2010K0

 

 

A nice wee bit of in and out is good for you :D Just make sure to take precautions :P

Share this post


Link to post
Quote

Trying to time the market’s declines and betting against more gains has been a losing strategy over the more than decade-long bull run in stocks, despite repeated worries about rich valuations and overexuberance. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
58 minutes ago, dmedin said:

yes the press gotta do what they gotta do, grab you by the fears and greeds.

22 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Trying to time the market’s declines and betting against more gains has been a losing strategy over the more than decade-long bull run in stocks, despite repeated worries about rich valuations and overexuberance. 

yes as you know I had noticed, but what was everyone else looking at?  🛐✴️✴️🍄🍄🤩

Edited by Caseynotes
  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Dow in 5 th wave triangle 

Short term 5 th wave triangle....High volatility.....differing push and pulls in the market....

Dear bulls.....I aint saying the end of the world is nigh..... So do nt worry about deep long positions......go on holiday for a month......Bears need a play in the park from time to time......  427760460_WallStreet_20200207_12_47.png.0b3523bd214388e7dae254144b50f61b.png

Share this post


Link to post
5 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Dow in 5 th wave triangle 

Short term 5 th wave triangle....High volatility.....differing push and pulls in the market....

Dear bulls.....I aint saying the end of the world is nigh..... So do nt worry about deep long positions......go on holiday for a month......Bears need a play in the park from time to time......  427760460_WallStreet_20200207_12_47.png.0b3523bd214388e7dae254144b50f61b.png

lol, but your MACD has just turned up again, 3 more months of uptrend isn't it? 👀

  • Thought provoking 1

Share this post


Link to post
50 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

lol, but your MACD has just turned up again, 3 more months of uptrend isn't it? 👀

RSI in the 60 s ...MACD probably wo nt retest highs, but I believe that DJ 30 will set a test of 30 000 , it may fail....i do nt know but then chickens will come home to roost, pigs will fly and cows will come home....and the bears will do what we do best ....**** all over the lovely up trend hahahahaha !!!! 

Share this post


Link to post

Bulls  ! Do nt ignore what the T Bonds are saying.... 985933481_UltraTreasuryBondDecimalised_20200207_13_59.png.4181711e29cff3f645e97ef492c49a03.png

Share this post


Link to post
12 minutes ago, cheviot said:

RSI in the 60 s ...MACD probably wo nt retest highs, but I believe that DJ 30 will set a test of 30 000 , it may fail....i do nt know but then chickens will come home to roost, pigs will fly and cows will come home....and the bears will do what we do best ....**** all over the lovely up trend hahahahaha !!!! 

It'll be nice to short for a while, don't get much of a chance very often but I don't know, that treasury bond has come a long way since the lows way back in Aug 2019.

image.thumb.png.6bc6dfe0528c7aa785054dade252566c.png

Share this post


Link to post

6 month 10 year yields close to inversion again !   That ll spook the poor little bullies ! 

Share this post


Link to post
12 minutes ago, cheviot said:

6 month 10 year yields close to inversion again !   That ll spook the poor little bullies ! 

The bond market has been changing for decades now, new era economics. The yield curves don't look bad considering and definitely better than it did in Aug last year.

image.thumb.png.e35a8323814b75941b6de52c52d9cfe9.png

944103388_10yield.thumb.jpg.1d017759d249dc11b33471cca7b39027.jpg

 

Share this post


Link to post

The tone at Reuters has certainly shifted now that oil prices are still falling.  Interesting psychology.  (Reuters must have a vested interest in rising oil prices because it's obsessed with oil.)  Now it is very negative sounding on the stock market and it's even running articles about how stock market gains mainly go to the very rich.  Marxists!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Chickens coming home to roost ! Yields dropping .  Buy bonds and wear diamonds....Just remember to sell them before the Chinese cash in their log pile of US treasuries !  

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Buuuuuuuuuy the dips!  There's no alternative!  No wonder so many people  never short ...

Share this post


Link to post

Wee bit of downward movement building up now, Samwise Gamgee? 🤔

Share this post


Link to post

For the past 2 years, it appears to be more and more difficult for us retail traders to hit jackpot trades safely. Anyone have this experience?

Going forward, I have decided to shift focus to mainly small profits through many trades rather than holding positions overnight. Less potential profits for sure on paper but safer and easier.

Edited by HPbrand
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
27 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

For the past 2 years, it appears to be more and more difficult for us retail traders to hit jackpot trades safely. Anyone have this experience?

 

That's true.  A buy-and-hold S&P 500 ETF on the other hand would have done the trick nicely over the last two years.  One could even have made drawdowns far less painful by 'averaging' money in every month rather than investing in single, larger one-offs.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      8,806
    • Total Posts
      48,392
    • Total Members
      61,183
    Newest Member
    geop5
    Joined 29/03/20 21:36
  • Posts

    • This week is a crucial week for US indices I think especially end of the week. If we are going to see extreme Dow soon, the market will let us know.  The volatility is expected to pick up so money can probably be made in both directions with 1000+ points move again. I personally would not go long for a couple days. There are positions trapped right now going long from last week so I would guess some will be forced to endure some pain, unless they volunteer to take losses.
    • If it moves below $5k to maybe $4k again, it doesn't look like there is a great deal of support. Sure it can double in a short span of time but don't you think this is a very risky trade?
    • as explained earlier in the thread the cumulative risk reward ratio (auto calc'd on a spread sheet) plotted on the chart with the win rate is absolutely fool proof in revealing if a strategy is profitable of not. Also if you make any changes to the strategy the result will show up quickly in the stats so revealing whether the change was advantageous or not. Without hard statistics people have a habit of misleading themselves as to how well they and their strategy are really doing.
×
×