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"The 1982-2000 secular bull market lasted 6,434 calendar days and every single day we could have said "the stock market is about to make a major top."

Chris Ciovacco @CiovaccoCapital

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55 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

"The 1982-2000 secular bull market lasted 6,434 calendar days and every single day we could have said "the stock market is about to make a major top."

Chris Ciovacco @CiovaccoCapital

I do nt see this as a 'Major top' .  My view is that we retest SP 3000, with a possible retest of the August lows.  Think it through.....The market assumed that Phase 1 would bring renewed prosperity and trade to the world.  Past earnings have been (in US) quite robust BUT does it support the market at this level, if earnings are say cut by 5% average.....?  The SP is at full stretch valuation wise, and other than LT rates at 1.5% , there may be a correction worth talking about.  

IF NvCv 2019 is going to be 'disruptive' particularly to China 's secondary banks...This will cause lasting problems.....not just a few iphones not bought.  

The Fed has painted itself into a corner.  If it cuts rates, that will actually send the wrong signal to the market that the Fed is worried....In actuality the Fed should have raised rates when it had its chance. given the so called level of US economic activity currently estimated at 1.4% GDP growth ?  Think about that figure 1.4% GDP growth on a stock market that on a p/e basis is in its highest quartile.  

The two ends do nt meet.  

What has been happening is that 'not QE' $$ pumped into the short end has been going straight into SP etc.  If you look at the rest of the world's share indexes they cant follow the US lead, because they have nt the $$$ pushed into the short end through a very accommodating CBank.  

If SP drops even another 50 points there will be calls for a cut in US rates,,,,you can bank on it.....

Buy low .....sell high.   

 

 

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39 minutes ago, cheviot said:

I do nt see this as a 'Major top' .  My view is that we retest SP 3000, with a possible retest of the August lows.  Think it through.....The market assumed that Phase 1 would bring renewed prosperity and trade to the world.  Past earnings have been (in US) quite robust BUT does it support the market at this level, if earnings are say cut by 5% average.....?  The SP is at full stretch valuation wise, and other than LT rates at 1.5% , there may be a correction worth talking about.  

IF NvCv 2019 is going to be 'disruptive' particularly to China 's secondary banks...This will cause lasting problems.....not just a few iphones not bought.  

The Fed has painted itself into a corner.  If it cuts rates, that will actually send the wrong signal to the market that the Fed is worried....In actuality the Fed should have raised rates when it had its chance. given the so called level of US economic activity currently estimated at 1.4% GDP growth ?  Think about that figure 1.4% GDP growth on a stock market that on a p/e basis is in its highest quartile.  

The two ends do nt meet.  

What has been happening is that 'not QE' $$ pumped into the short end has been going straight into SP etc.  If you look at the rest of the world's share indexes they cant follow the US lead, because they have nt the $$$ pushed into the short end through a very accommodating CBank.  

If SP drops even another 50 points there will be calls for a cut in US rates,,,,you can bank on it.....

Buy low .....sell high.   

 

 

Shorting the U.S. indices is like peeing into the wind ...

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10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Shorting the U.S. indices is like peeing into the wind

So what are you going to do?  Cross your legs ??  haha 

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Buy!  Sell!  Buy!  Sell!  I lose money whichever option I choose.  😄

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5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Buy!  Sell!  Buy!  Sell!  I lose money whichever option I choose.  😄

doesn't really matter though does it?  Random entry 50/50 cut losers quick let winners run = big profits for you. Can't do that in Vegas. 🚀🌋🧗‍♂️🏇🤬

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14 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

doesn't really matter though does it?  Random entry 50/50 cut losers quick let winners run = big profits for you. Can't do that in Vegas. 🚀🌋🧗‍♂️🏇🤬

Left long positions running overnight 😞

Tried shorting in the morning 😞

No money left now 😄

Edited by dmedin

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@dmedin

become proficient at finding good entries first, leave the in-trade management skills for later so just cut losers if they don't take off and for trade entries that do stick in a 1:2 take profit order and let it manage itself. but you've heard all this many times over and just keep doing it your own way so carry on 🙄

Edited by Caseynotes
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4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

note the big spike up in the dot graph bottom right.

image.thumb.png.5b6b139319494d3b8b695d7ef1da8897.png

interesting, I pointed this out this morning, so looks like caused by govt action rather than the virus suddenly exploding.

John Robb  @johnrobb

6m

A new spike in Coronavirus cases.... This latest spike is also likely related to recent efforts to forcibly round up people convalescing at home.

 

image.png.bc3895ccd76865185984d5c994853380.png

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I also noted yesterday that the UK 'super spreader' was discharged from hospital after just a few days?

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Right, well I have a checklist and I won't enter trades until all the boxes are ticked now.

Been trying to jump on those big price movements, but need to wait for the EMAs to align up first.  Otherwise, who's to say price won't just shoot back up again 😄

Meanwhile, on the side: Bought a call option on S&P 500 @ 3400 September 2020.  Can't go wrong with that 😄 😄 😄

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I think US indices are closing higher later today. Shorting might not be a good idea today. Tomorrow might be a different story.

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31 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I also noted yesterday that the UK 'super spreader' was discharged from hospital after just a few days?

Not a nice way to describe a person, is it? Who is going to have a drink with him at the local pub with that kind of tag on his forehead? 😄

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11 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Not a nice way to describe a person, is it? Who is going to have a drink with him at the local pub with that kind of tag on his forehead? 😄

it's ok, the nhs gave him a face mask and a fist full of aspirin 😃

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9 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

it's ok, the nhs gave him a face mask and a fist full of aspirin 😃

How considerate of the NHS 😂

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Betting long on Nasdaq over Dow and S&P for the time being offers greater % profit I think. I noticed the indices had been diverging since January. The gap may increase further until Dow 30000.

 

On Monday US markets are closed. Perfect opportunity to increase the volatility to trap us by going down?! Don't know about you guys but I will avoid overnight positions and take whatever profits I can before close each day.

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Nasdaq 100 seems to be the most positive of them all.  S&P 500 is a good one for long-term investment.  Wall Street and Germany 30 are the best place to make the most money (or lose the most).  

FTSE 100 is just a horrible mess and Russell 2000 is interesting ... probably good for investing.

Edited by dmedin

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Nasdaq 100 seems to be the most positive of them all.  S&P 500 is a good one for long-term investment.  Wall Street and Germany 30 are the best place to make the most money (or lose the most).  

FTSE 100 is just a horrible mess and Russell 2000 is interesting ... probably good for investing.

I have not studied or traded FTSE before because I always found it to be less popular to US indices and less activity. Just a matter of preference I suppose. The most important question in trading is always "what makes you money". 

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27 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

I have not studied or traded FTSE before because I always found it to be less popular to US indices and less activity. Just a matter of preference I suppose. The most important question in trading is always "what makes you money". 

It just moves in inverse relation to GBP/USD.  Boring really.  The UK economy isn't anywhere near as dynamic as the USA's.  Pays fat dividends though.

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Hi All - brand new here. Anyone regularly trade the ftse?

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4 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

Meanwhile, on the side: Bought a call option on S&P 500 @ 3400 September 2020.  Can't go wrong with that 😄 😄 😄

You will have paid a lot of  time premium  and vol. for that so whats your break even?   Also what is your delta hedging strategy ?  Or are you  short  SP against your call already ?  

Use your option as a pivot.  Look for sell points when RSI o/bought,  then buy back when RSI drops back.   To get options right you have to work hard,,,Options are like rotting fish ...If they start to drift away from you, you have time and price against you.  

Your worst nightmare is a market which drifts lower with volatility dying on you...and time and price... So you need to actively protect your position....

Best of luck 😅

 

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4 hours ago, dmedin said:

Meanwhile, on the side: Bought a call option on S&P 500 @ 3400 September 2020.  Can't go wrong with that 😄 😄 😄

I m guessing your break even must be around SP 3526 or so....  Looking at the IG options page.  .... 

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9 minutes ago, cheviot said:

I m guessing your break even must be around SP 3526 or so....  Looking at the IG options page.  .... 

What?
 

I could close it right now for an enormous £6 profit.🇺🇸🤖

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19 minutes ago, cheviot said:

You will have paid a lot of  time premium  and vol. for that so whats your break even?   Also what is your delta hedging strategy ?  Or are you  short  SP against your call already ?  

Use your option as a pivot.  Look for sell points when RSI o/bought,  then buy back when RSI drops back.   To get options right you have to work hard,,,Options are like rotting fish ...If they start to drift away from you, you have time and price against you.  

Your worst nightmare is a market which drifts lower with volatility dying on you...and time and price... So you need to actively protect your position....

Best of luck 😅

 

 

No need to pivot, swivel, dance on one foot or do a handstand.  Just buy low and sell high.  That's all there is to it 😊

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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

What?
 

I could close it right now for an enormous £6 profit.🇺🇸🤖

Its not for me to say.....But if you keep your option you need to decide what the range of the market is,, i.e.  SP top has been 3380 .  So you need to sell spot against your call.....If the maket flies upwards out of the range you are covered by your call.....If the market drops you need to hold your short to protect your call option....Its hard work to make it work esp. as you have bought a call at the top end of the market range and with high volatiility, .....

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11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I could close it right now for an enormous £6 profit.🇺🇸🤖

You still get change after a happy meal from McDonalds. Can't complain there.

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