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3 minutes ago, bluebird4211 said:

Fattening the goose for the chop / drop.

seems such a long time ago now.

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55 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Yes it is stressful ... I don't know how anyone can find pleasure in only 'analysing' markets, there's only pleasure if there's a feedback response in the form of some kind of reward or success.  All TA basically boils down to, 'If it goes here, it might go there; and if it goes there, it might go here.'   Totally pointless unless you put some money on the table.

I think you are waiting for surety before having the confidence to enter a trade. Have you ever stopped and thought about this for a moment? The masses are doing exactly this. When a direction is so obvious to everybody, they start to enter thinking they will strike gold. This is the perfect time to take their money.

 

It would help you to go and read and learn some human psychology. Find the application of the theories and it would help you to think differently than the masses.

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Fattening the goose for the chop/drop pointto note sense does not drive markets and those in priveliged position know whats coming and how to long or short markets before anyone else, i dont beleive that people close to trump dont go to market before he annouces something out of the blue i know some time ago when an expert i followed was suggesting a 300 point stop loss i went 2000 and in no time it was wiped out in a crazy drop that lasted no time and shot back up and oif that wasnt an algoritham on a mission i will eat my hat.Algorithams are a blight as far as im concerened trading isnt really about stock its who can write the best codes.

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10 minutes ago, bluebird4211 said:

Fattening the goose for the chop/drop pointto note sense does not drive markets and those in priveliged position know whats coming and how to long or short markets before anyone else, i dont beleive that people close to trump dont go to market before he annouces something out of the blue i know some time ago when an expert i followed was suggesting a 300 point stop loss i went 2000 and in no time it was wiped out in a crazy drop that lasted no time and shot back up and oif that wasnt an algoritham on a mission i will eat my hat.Algorithams are a blight as far as im concerened trading isnt really about stock its who can write the best codes.

Visible stop losses exists for the whales to know exactly how many points to advance or drop to stop traders out even if they are on the correct side of the trade. I have never met successful traders in real life making consistent gains would choose to gamble with an open hand for everyone to see.

 

Algorithmic trading is not as profitable as you think it is. Only the biggest players can afford to make money that way. I'm talking about players like Renaissance Technologies.

Edited by HPbrand
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33 minutes ago, bluebird4211 said:

Fattening the goose for the chop/drop pointto note sense does not drive markets and those in priveliged position know whats coming and how to long or short markets before anyone else, i dont beleive that people close to trump dont go to market before he annouces something out of the blue i know some time ago when an expert i followed was suggesting a 300 point stop loss i went 2000 and in no time it was wiped out in a crazy drop that lasted no time and shot back up and oif that wasnt an algoritham on a mission i will eat my hat.Algorithams are a blight as far as im concerened trading isnt really about stock its who can write the best codes.

 

Of course they do.  One simple example.  Lots of people within a company know what the quarterly results will be before the public does, and the senior people will be having dinners with their brokers, big clients and 'mentioning the state of business'.  Plenty of inside information to trade on.  Where do those gaps high and low come from?  You know, the trading that goes on before the exchanges open ...

This is what trickle-down means.  We are supposed to be fighting for the leftover crumbs.

Edited by dmedin
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Long the indices 😎

I've pished away all the money I made since the Christmas rally, hoping to get it back 😄

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S&P, Dow and Dax just backing off their respective all time highs, Ftse remains the laggard. US CPI data today not expecting much change to the low figures of recent years. What ever happened to Paul Krugman and all the other Nobel prize winning economists who predicted imminent financial meltdown (especially if Trump got in)  5 -6 years ago, oh well.

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5 th Wave triangle   DOW    DAX    All showing the same symptoms....Push/pull factors.  Hi CHOP rate asthe markets turn.   5 th Wave triangle always very volatile.....But they are a turn signal...BEWARE There s bears in them th'ar woods !125888747_Germany30_20200212_11_36.png.520e7feedd0628c2a821541b3031bdf1.png1828022995_US500_20200213_08_01.png.c70800a4c99aac3e8de5229d0f25a181.png

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Looking at that big spike down just before midnight and as reported on the IG news round this morning is related to the announcement of a large surge in virus cases and deaths in China.

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"The 1982-2000 secular bull market lasted 6,434 calendar days and every single day we could have said "the stock market is about to make a major top."

Chris Ciovacco @CiovaccoCapital

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55 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

"The 1982-2000 secular bull market lasted 6,434 calendar days and every single day we could have said "the stock market is about to make a major top."

Chris Ciovacco @CiovaccoCapital

I do nt see this as a 'Major top' .  My view is that we retest SP 3000, with a possible retest of the August lows.  Think it through.....The market assumed that Phase 1 would bring renewed prosperity and trade to the world.  Past earnings have been (in US) quite robust BUT does it support the market at this level, if earnings are say cut by 5% average.....?  The SP is at full stretch valuation wise, and other than LT rates at 1.5% , there may be a correction worth talking about.  

IF NvCv 2019 is going to be 'disruptive' particularly to China 's secondary banks...This will cause lasting problems.....not just a few iphones not bought.  

The Fed has painted itself into a corner.  If it cuts rates, that will actually send the wrong signal to the market that the Fed is worried....In actuality the Fed should have raised rates when it had its chance. given the so called level of US economic activity currently estimated at 1.4% GDP growth ?  Think about that figure 1.4% GDP growth on a stock market that on a p/e basis is in its highest quartile.  

The two ends do nt meet.  

What has been happening is that 'not QE' $$ pumped into the short end has been going straight into SP etc.  If you look at the rest of the world's share indexes they cant follow the US lead, because they have nt the $$$ pushed into the short end through a very accommodating CBank.  

If SP drops even another 50 points there will be calls for a cut in US rates,,,,you can bank on it.....

Buy low .....sell high.   

 

 

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39 minutes ago, cheviot said:

I do nt see this as a 'Major top' .  My view is that we retest SP 3000, with a possible retest of the August lows.  Think it through.....The market assumed that Phase 1 would bring renewed prosperity and trade to the world.  Past earnings have been (in US) quite robust BUT does it support the market at this level, if earnings are say cut by 5% average.....?  The SP is at full stretch valuation wise, and other than LT rates at 1.5% , there may be a correction worth talking about.  

IF NvCv 2019 is going to be 'disruptive' particularly to China 's secondary banks...This will cause lasting problems.....not just a few iphones not bought.  

The Fed has painted itself into a corner.  If it cuts rates, that will actually send the wrong signal to the market that the Fed is worried....In actuality the Fed should have raised rates when it had its chance. given the so called level of US economic activity currently estimated at 1.4% GDP growth ?  Think about that figure 1.4% GDP growth on a stock market that on a p/e basis is in its highest quartile.  

The two ends do nt meet.  

What has been happening is that 'not QE' $$ pumped into the short end has been going straight into SP etc.  If you look at the rest of the world's share indexes they cant follow the US lead, because they have nt the $$$ pushed into the short end through a very accommodating CBank.  

If SP drops even another 50 points there will be calls for a cut in US rates,,,,you can bank on it.....

Buy low .....sell high.   

 

 

Shorting the U.S. indices is like peeing into the wind ...

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10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Shorting the U.S. indices is like peeing into the wind

So what are you going to do?  Cross your legs ??  haha 

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Buy!  Sell!  Buy!  Sell!  I lose money whichever option I choose.  😄

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5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Buy!  Sell!  Buy!  Sell!  I lose money whichever option I choose.  😄

doesn't really matter though does it?  Random entry 50/50 cut losers quick let winners run = big profits for you. Can't do that in Vegas. 🚀🌋🧗‍♂️🏇🤬

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14 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

doesn't really matter though does it?  Random entry 50/50 cut losers quick let winners run = big profits for you. Can't do that in Vegas. 🚀🌋🧗‍♂️🏇🤬

Left long positions running overnight 😞

Tried shorting in the morning 😞

No money left now 😄

Edited by dmedin

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@dmedin

become proficient at finding good entries first, leave the in-trade management skills for later so just cut losers if they don't take off and for trade entries that do stick in a 1:2 take profit order and let it manage itself. but you've heard all this many times over and just keep doing it your own way so carry on 🙄

Edited by Caseynotes
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4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

note the big spike up in the dot graph bottom right.

image.thumb.png.5b6b139319494d3b8b695d7ef1da8897.png

interesting, I pointed this out this morning, so looks like caused by govt action rather than the virus suddenly exploding.

John Robb  @johnrobb

6m

A new spike in Coronavirus cases.... This latest spike is also likely related to recent efforts to forcibly round up people convalescing at home.

 

image.png.bc3895ccd76865185984d5c994853380.png

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I also noted yesterday that the UK 'super spreader' was discharged from hospital after just a few days?

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Right, well I have a checklist and I won't enter trades until all the boxes are ticked now.

Been trying to jump on those big price movements, but need to wait for the EMAs to align up first.  Otherwise, who's to say price won't just shoot back up again 😄

Meanwhile, on the side: Bought a call option on S&P 500 @ 3400 September 2020.  Can't go wrong with that 😄 😄 😄

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I think US indices are closing higher later today. Shorting might not be a good idea today. Tomorrow might be a different story.

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31 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I also noted yesterday that the UK 'super spreader' was discharged from hospital after just a few days?

Not a nice way to describe a person, is it? Who is going to have a drink with him at the local pub with that kind of tag on his forehead? 😄

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11 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Not a nice way to describe a person, is it? Who is going to have a drink with him at the local pub with that kind of tag on his forehead? 😄

it's ok, the nhs gave him a face mask and a fist full of aspirin 😃

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9 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

it's ok, the nhs gave him a face mask and a fist full of aspirin 😃

How considerate of the NHS 😂

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Betting long on Nasdaq over Dow and S&P for the time being offers greater % profit I think. I noticed the indices had been diverging since January. The gap may increase further until Dow 30000.

 

On Monday US markets are closed. Perfect opportunity to increase the volatility to trap us by going down?! Don't know about you guys but I will avoid overnight positions and take whatever profits I can before close each day.

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