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JESS ........TWO BARKS FOR BUY     ONE BARK FOR SELL   ???

That is the 50% retrace for  the Dow and S&P. 

It's the opposite, I don't think I'm cut out for day trading.  I still would have been better off keeping a position open from Christmas, even now.  I zoomed out to the day chart and the overall pictu

Posted Images

I missed another couple 'filters'.

- Check at least the next highest time frame (H1 -> H4) to see if there's a noticeably different candle formation.  Sometimes the situation appears very different, for example looking at H4 there was no reason to consider going short today

162182412_WallStreet_20200214_21_50.thumb.png.d8c50c4bb160cc1d6390529549a7224f.png

- Have a prejudice against trading against the trend (so, not swing trading - no point in trying to do that if I can't even trade in the direction of a trend properly)

- Even if the EMAs are in alignment and curving a certain way, look at previous highs and lows as it might just be a correction (in particular, look back at previous cross overs and see if there was a precipitous price movement).  Higher highers, lower lowers and all that.

etc etc.

Haha, it would be easier just to buy an option and check on it once a week.  Or buy and hold.  Too much work 😫

Edited by dmedin
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14 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

hmmm, so not dead then.

Sky News Breaking  @SkyNewsBreak

22m

Virus Outbreak: NHS England has said all but one of the nine patients in the UK who tested positive for the coronavirus have been discharged from the hospital

 

 

Maybe the virus and the movement towards green energy and socialist uprisings all over the world are leading to a new world order and the stock market won't recover this time?

 

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5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

 

Maybe the virus and the movement towards green energy and socialist uprisings all over the world are leading to a new world order and the stock market won't recover this time?

 

I wouldn't worry, the virus downturn will be over soon, green energy has a long way to go before it can survive without govt subsidy and most socialists will be conservatives by the time they're 40 anyway.

Edited by Caseynotes
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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

I wouldn't worry, the virus downturn will be over soon

I've just seen some videos on Twitter.  Stuff the mainstream media doesn't show us about China.  We need to stop relying on that country to make our goods.  Even if it means higher prices (higher prices = better treatment of HUMAN BEINGS who make the stuff) and less consumption (LESS CONSUMPTION = better quality and less WASTE).  The world needs to change, desperately!

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Think I'll stick to 20 50 200 SMA on all time frames.  (Except weekly where 10 and 40 equate to the 50 and 200 daily SMA)

Looks better on the hourly chart.

1841243777_WallStreet_20200215_20_00.thumb.png.8fc8bb66650d24b2e2d827da3b8c4dae.png

 

Stochastics, momentum, Williams %R, Directional Movement, MACD and CCI don't really help me.

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13 hours ago, dmedin said:

Stochastics, momentum, Williams %R, Directional Movement, MACD and CCI don't really help me.

So this, matched with your Fib posting it's not really clear what you are asking these indicators to do.
Does Fib work in isolation? no, but the same can be said of them all really. No indicator based on historical price data can predict the future, that's not what you should be using them for.


Think rather waves within waves and lining up the wave pattern of price with the wave of an oscillator. So on the chart have say perhaps an MA that captures the slow wave movement of the market, a medium oscillator like MACD and for trigger look to candle patterns with a fast wave like Stoch.


So you have a package of indicators and you are waiting for confluence.
I pick these at random to make a point but the the principle is good. Find your own best indicators that link together and fit your market and time frame and together tell the story of price. If there is not a clear picture look else where, don't try to force a fit.

image.thumb.png.451de0261a876e653b259344a42b0860.png
 

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14 hours ago, dmedin said:

Think I'll stick to 20 50 200 SMA on all time frames.  (Except weekly where 10 and 40 equate to the 50 and 200 daily SMA)

Looks better on the hourly chart.

1841243777_WallStreet_20200215_20_00.thumb.png.8fc8bb66650d24b2e2d827da3b8c4dae.png

 

Stochastics, momentum, Williams %R, Directional Movement, MACD and CCI don't really help me.

I use only 2 MAs as a filter (used the same settings long time)

Had some time over and did a backtest buy sell on cross

I used a trailing stop and optimized the trailing stop only and for the whole year 2019

and did a backtest (out of sample) with best setting this year from year end until now

I know it will probably fail in the future but everything works sometimes the hard thing is to know when

And its DAX tick chart 

When will we have tick charts in proorder?

DAX backtest.png

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5 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

So this, matched with your Fib posting it's not really clear what you are asking these indicators to do.
Does Fib work in isolation? no, but the same can be said of them all really. No indicator based on historical price data can predict the future, that's not what you should be using them for.


Think rather waves within waves and lining up the wave pattern of price with the wave of an oscillator. So on the chart have say perhaps an MA that captures the slow wave movement of the market, a medium oscillator like MACD and for trigger look to candle patterns with a fast wave like Stoch.


So you have a package of indicators and you are waiting for confluence.
I pick these at random to make a point but the the principle is good. Find your own best indicators that link together and fit your market and time frame and together tell the story of price. If there is not a clear picture look else where, don't try to force a fit.

image.thumb.png.451de0261a876e653b259344a42b0860.png
 

 

 

The MACD and Stoch just confuse me ... what exactly are they giving you that a simple combination of MAs doen't?

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The US indices and Dax remain at the highs.

COVID-19 peak already in February?

JPM: "Our insurance team is now considering shifting the timeline forward and assuming the number of confirmed cases will peak at around 90k in late February, yet the risk of prolonged epidemics in the next few months should not be ignored"

Chart: Daily reported infected rate.

image.thumb.png.9e435d1101b932022e0ab5032a904c3a.png

image.thumb.png.51af41baec8cb78a7320a2606b32e713.png

image.png.7658aa2580825d063b9aee0ccc813d58.png

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37 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Apple warns may miss quarterly guidance estimates due to virus impact starts a new pullback in the indices.

The most important words to pay attention here are "may miss".

Which makes me think we might end up closing up again and recover  this early loss on US indices.  Placed a small bet going long. Let's see the open reaction.

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20 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Have you started your short? You sound tempted late last week.

 

Might do it in demo (but when I'm in demo I just feel like it's totally pointless).  I used to see patterns and opportunities all over the place and now I don't really have faith in anything to work.

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17 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

The most important words to pay attention here are "may miss".

Which makes me think we might end up closing up again and recover  this early loss on US indices.  Placed a small bet going long. Let's see the open reaction.

Whatever happens it won't be obvious and there are thousands of the world's best minds playing the game which people like me can't win.

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