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68% of traders lose money

Wonder how many of them lost money shorting the indices and could have saved a lot of money with buying and holding S&P 500 ETF?

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17 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Joking aside, you need to get in when people are waiting but indications for upside.

 

Doesn't really matter, sometimes the indicators work and sometimes they don't. 

All you can do is hope you don't keep losing.

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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Doesn't really matter, sometimes the indicators work and sometimes they don't. 

All you can do is hope you don't keep losing.

your job is to find a combination of several indicators that when they converge give a proven probability of a successful outcome on a time frame and market you are comfortable trading on, keep looking. Plenty of people have found 2 crossing MAs can work just fine when applied to a trending chart. 

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Wait!  Now it's dropping again!  Go short go short!  This short term trading melarkey is so profitable :D

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The signals are clear to me!  I know exactly what I'm doing :D:D:D:D:D

1595262913_WallStreet_20200218_15_28.thumb.png.90594e572743ccf98915e6c5975e99cf.png

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14 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

your job is to find a combination of several indicators that when they converge give a proven probability of a successful outcome on a time frame and market you are comfortable trading on, keep looking. Plenty of people have found 2 crossing MAs can work just fine when applied to a trending chart. 

Not looking at short term charts now.  Day time frame minimum.  You might have heard me say this before and I broke my own rule after seeing people tout the benefits of their 15 minute, hourly etc charts.  It's just an unmitigated disaster.  I can kind of see in theory how you can profit by them, but in practice I see now how useful these so-called 'indicators' are on a short time interval and how quickly and unexpectedly they reverse.  It's total f*king ****, and I am a weakminded idiot for believing it.

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Not looking at short term charts now.  Day time frame minimum.  You might have heard me say this before and I broke my own rule after seeing people tout the benefits of their 15 minute, hourly etc charts.  It's just an unmitigated disaster.  I can kind of see in theory how you can profit by them, but in practice I see now how useful these so-called 'indicators' are on a short time interval and how quickly and unexpectedly they reverse.  It's total f*king ****, and I am a weakminded idiot for believing it.

the time frame is irreverent to the process, choose whatever time frame and market you are most comfortable with and then find ... 

Edited by Caseynotes
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49 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Why trade in a 90% chance for a 10% chance?  Who actually manages to make money shorting the U.S. indices in the last 10 years?

Just because muppets like Mr Nenner manages to get decade of losses under his belt, doesn't mean others with half a brain has to follow suit.

Going short is not the way to go mate. Dow is going to 30000+ sometime later this year. Shorter term corrections yes, but shorting to eternity will result in people holding cups asking for spare change.

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33 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Wait!  Now it's dropping again!  Go short go short!  This short term trading melarkey is so profitable :D

This is called profit taking. Day trading means taking profits FAST when opportunity arises. You must do the same because the longer you are in a trade, the more risks you are taking (in day trading).

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5 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

This is called profit taking. Day trading means taking profits FAST when opportunity arises. You must do the same because the longer you are in a trade, the more risks you are taking (in day trading).

You mean, watching charts like a hawk all day long and scalping bits and pieces here and there.

Perfectly fine if you're willing to work at trading all day long, 8 - 10 hours ... if you're betting the minimum per point you'll be lucky to come away with £10 - 20 a day, not a bad return for 10 hours' work ... plus all the days when you make a net loss ... great

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I'm making money with CFDs on stocks/ETFs on 15min time frames, with the 300SMA sloping strongly up, and the chart history showing the 300SMA rarely breaking. I also need to see an upward sloping 300SMA on a daily chart as well (history is not that important for the daily, as long as the current daily curve is up). I then check a momentum chart for the 15min and daily. If they look ok, then I take a trade. It's working for me at least (ASX stocks/ETFs worth at least 80cents). Also works for shorting downward sloping charts .

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Forgot: this is swing trading and my continually adjusted stop is the 15min, 300SMA line. You can expect to be in the trades for 1 hour (if your unlucky) to weeks.

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8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

You mean, watching charts like a hawk all day long and scalping bits and pieces here and there.

Perfectly fine if you're willing to work at trading all day long, 8 - 10 hours ... if you're betting the minimum per point you'll be lucky to come away with £10 - 20 a day, not a bad return for 10 hours' work ... plus all the days when you make a net loss ... great

That's what I have been saying. You need a 5 figure account to day trade. Otherwise, buy and hold is better.

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Some current trades I have on the ASX : 1. CSL, 2. Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF

On the Nikkei: a short trade....Nissan Motor Co

I have other trades, but if you look at the above 3 chart histories using the timeframes I mentioned, you'll see they go for a long run without breaking the SMA line I stipulated. If the trade does break the 15min 300 SMA, I'm stopped out of the trade, often with a handy profit. The key being: only enter the trade if the chart setups are right to begin with. Taking the time to sift through the stocks/ETFs with the right chart setups is worth the return in the end

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29 minutes ago, SAMMYDAVID said:

Some current trades I have on the ASX : 1. CSL, 2. Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF

On the Nikkei: a short trade....Nissan Motor Co

I have other trades, but if you look at the above 3 chart histories using the timeframes I mentioned, you'll see they go for a long run without breaking the SMA line I stipulated. If the trade does break the 15min 300 SMA, I'm stopped out of the trade, often with a handy profit. The key being: only enter the trade if the chart setups are right to begin with. Taking the time to sift through the stocks/ETFs with the right chart setups is worth the return in the end

Why are you monitoring a trade in 15 minute timeframe with a 300 SMA that it's been below for days or weeks?  You might as well go short when a stock is below its 200 SMA on a daily timeframe and check on it once a day?

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Why are you monitoring a trade in 15 minute timeframe with a 300 SMA that it's been below for days or weeks?  You might as well go short when a stock is below its 200 SMA on a daily timeframe and check on it once a day?

The strategy I mentioned provides good short-term profits using the leverage of CFDs. Trade 1. CSL currently 600% in profit over about 3 weeks; Trade 2. Betashares Nasdaq 100 currently about 300% profit in about 3 weeks; Trade 3. short Nissan currently 300% profit in 2 weeks.

I could trade slightly differently, as you mentioned, however it may not capture the same level of ST profits that I'm currently getting. I would also get out of losing trades quicker, with the closer stops in the 15min/300SMA

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I don't monitor these trades. I just adjust the stop once/trading session to the 15min/300SMA. The only other job is sifting through charts for future trades

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Good for you ...

There are also some people who win at poker and win the lottery too.

As for 'trading', the overwhelming majority do worse than people who buy and hold a diverse portfolio.  Even 'fundamental' analysts are full of cr@p - hence the decline of the active portfolio manager.  :D

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I've gone from AU$1,900 to AU$8,500 in about 4 weeks, using this strategy. I tried wider stops, as you mentioned...I end up going too deep in the red when the trade reverses. Closer stops take me out of the trades too soon. The strategy seems to walk the fine line between being in the trade long enough to make good profits, but short enough to get out of reversing trades quick.

Not sure if this trading strategy is good when one is not using the leverage of CFDs?

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5 minutes ago, SAMMYDAVID said:

I've gone from AU$1,900 to AU$8,500 in about 4 weeks, using this strategy. I tried wider stops, as you mentioned...I end up going too deep in the red when the trade reverses. Closer stops take me out of the trades too soon. The strategy seems to walk the fine line between being in the trade long enough to make good profits, but short enough to get out of reversing trades quick.

Not sure if this trading strategy is good when one is not using the leverage of CFDs?

 

Well then you're a star IG client and they will be keen to highlight you, so that other people will think they can do as well as you can.  And the vast majority of them will learn a lesson like I did :)

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Look at the diagram below.  Up and down over a general up trend.  Buy and hold people would have kept a steady profit.  Traders trying to be smart-@rses would have been whipsawed by those ups and downs.  What's the right thing to do?  If you enjoy losing money be a trader :)

1666897824_WallStreet_20200218_17_31.thumb.png.c152d69c49cfd296a204e83bf21089aa.png

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

 

Well then you're a star IG client and they will be keen to highlight you, so that other people will think they can do as well as you can.  And the vast majority of them will learn a lesson like I did :)

And you're taking the mickey out of me....ah lah...IG would rather delete my posts coz I'm costing them money!😄

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Look at the diagram below.  Up and down over a general up trend.  Buy and hold people would have kept a steady profit.  Traders trying to be smart-@rses would have been whipsawed by those ups and downs.  What's the right thing to do?  If you enjoy losing money be a trader :)

1666897824_WallStreet_20200218_17_31.thumb.png.c152d69c49cfd296a204e83bf21089aa.png

Your comments can be hilarious. Well, you're absolutely right, the ST trader would lose, and the LT trader would best have a stop near one of the wider trend lines. The only problem, how can one be sure the trend will often go upward? That's why it's important to check the chart history to see if there is a reasonable chance of a continuing upward or downward continuation, that is less likely to chop through one's stop.

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23 minutes ago, SAMMYDAVID said:

And you're taking the mickey out of me....ah lah...IG would rather delete my posts coz I'm costing them money!😄

 

Apparently they only get money from commissions (that, and their premium clients) and hedge out all the winning trades somehow.  The main thing is to keep new blood coming in, I call them fish food because they get eaten by the sharks.

On DailyFX their number one indicator isn't TA or fundamental analysis but to do the opposite of what the majority of IG clients are doing.  Everyone can draw their own conclusions about that.

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

On DailyFX their number one indicator isn't TA or fundamental analysis but to do the opposite of what the majority of IG clients are doing.  Everyone can draw their own conclusions about that.

So can we. Caseynotes first brought my attention to that and some of the times, it does help.

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6 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

So can we. Caseynotes first brought my attention to that and some of the times, it does help.

Yeah but just because you're aware of it doesn't mean it's obvious how to play it.

If 70% are short and you go in long, there's still every chance a short-term movement will hit your stop loss and knock you out.  It's a false sense of security if you are trying to day trade. 

This is modern day Britain ... oftentimes the people who give you the friendliest smile are the ones who are working hardest to f*k you over ... as Mags said, there's no such thing as society and it's all about number one.

Edited by dmedin

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The sentiment index right now is S&P 72%, Dow 61%. Yes, you could go long now and get taken out. But what you need to monitor is change whilst the market moves. I'm saying it will help, not a guarantee to make the right trade.

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2 hours ago, HPbrand said:

The sentiment index right now is S&P 72%, Dow 61%. Yes, you could go long now and get taken out. But what you need to monitor is change whilst the market moves. I'm saying it will help, not a guarantee to make the right trade.

If you think they are wrong

Buy SP 500 and sell Dow same amount in money and close both at the same time when you have som profit

or Buy SP 500 and short some weak stocks in SP 500

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US indices look weak today. Apart from Nasdaq, they both fail to break above resistance. People may have hopes of reaching past Dow 29500 in the near term again, so my bet today is a down day for Dow.

Sentiment index Dow is ~ 63% . Let's see.

Edited by HPbrand
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