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Pushing on down to the next Fib/pivot, Eileen! ūüĎļ

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15 min would have been more helpful ūüßź

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It's going to pull back, wait till RSI crosses above 30 and there's a reversal candlestick and short it again :) (If there is one)

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Haha just found myself nett long equities...over did the short hedges...mmm Caseynotes would be so proud of me...

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2 hours ago, dmedin said:

It's going to pull back, wait till RSI crosses above 30 and there's a reversal candlestick and short it again :) (If there is one)

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Frodo Baggins ūü§†

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Don't really have a good option right now. Either hold or cut losses.

Holding seems like a better option as Nasdaq should not be dropping that much more (hopefully). Cutting my losses now means losing 10 days of earnings. Doesn't sit well with me.

What would you guys do if trapped like me?

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46 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Don't really have a good option right now. Either hold or cut losses.

Holding seems like a better option as Nasdaq should not be dropping that much more (hopefully). Cutting my losses now means losing 10 days of earnings. Doesn't sit well with me.

What would you guys do if trapped like me?

Very much a Friday profit take and get out just in case whatever over the weekend. If already down and seeing there are good support levels not too far below I would probably be inclined to hang on as the mass exit was planned and those wanting out for the weekend have likely already done so. Might be worth taking out a short for a hedge for over the weekend just in case though.  

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3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Very much a Friday profit take and get out just in case whatever over the weekend. If already down and seeing there are good support levels not too far below I would probably be inclined to hang on as the mass exit was planned and those wanting out for the weekend have likely already done so. Might be worth taking out a short for a hedge for over the weekend just in case though.  

Thanks for your opinion.

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I've given up three months' worth of gains and then some.  Learn to love the trading game, it's for losers! :)

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Guest TheInvestor

Momentum-wise, S&P500 is still showing a hot momentum.

I would actually buy more.

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12 hours ago, HPbrand said:

Don't really have a good option right now. Either hold or cut losses.

Holding seems like a better option as Nasdaq should not be dropping that much more (hopefully). Cutting my losses now means losing 10 days of earnings. Doesn't sit well with me.

What would you guys do if trapped like me?

Its always hard to cut and face a loss.  It depends on your view and how you trade and how deeply you are convinced of your position.  If you are a black box trader then a long position is probably flashing red lights.  If you are a position trader, who takes a view based on TA and fundamentals....then hold but re-asses your position each morning.  If your conviction to be long, is wavering then take a counter hedge....i.e if you want to stay long equities then buy US bonds....That market is driving the equity market lower.  Or buy volatility .....But you have to realise you are long one of the most over bought markets in the US market place,  so perhaps tight /stops, and hope for a bounce.  

 

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13 hours ago, HPbrand said:

Thanks for your opinion.

you're welcome.  @cheviot is quite right in the above post but this question comes up often on a Friday afternoon or Sat morning  when peeps realise they are a bit more exposed than they are comfortable with going into the weekend and are looking for a temporary solution. The better alternative would be if IG offered a short term guaranteed stop but otherwise it's worth taking out a simple hedge, an equal and opposite trade so your overall PnL stays even no matter what so there will be no nasty surprises on Monday morning, no good surprises either but at least you can sleep. If you miss the Friday the alternative (if available) is to keep a close eye on the weekend market and do the same there if necessary. Then on Monday reassess and decide which one to close, or both.

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13 hours ago, dmedin said:

I've given up three months' worth of gains and then some.  Learn to love the trading game, it's for losers! :)

I still haven't figured out how you choose direction, still seems to be the art of second guessing plus lots of hope. Try using some tools might help, I did explain the slow and fast wave in sync approach that might help, I remember you weren't impressed but it does work, just need to get your uppsies and downsies in alignment.

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Still another 8 years of bull market to go, yaaay. It must be so coz everyone knows TA is king.

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Still another 8 years of bull market to go, yaaay. It must be so coz everyone knows TA is king.

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Prof. Kondratieff , 1920 s economist studied the world s economy going back to the 18 th C.  He found the economy the go in waves,  and super cycles.  Hence Kondratieff waves.....Fibonacci used a sequence we all know and love 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 etc and the ratios there by refined from them.   

The only thing I d say is that the bull market starts when the bear trend stops, so in essence your time periods need to be re-adjusted.   

2009 was the bottom of the last bear market ( i.e falling prices),  which means we are in year 11 of this bull phase.   Fibonacci would look for year 13 i.e. 2022.  

I would not say TA is King.  If you decide what fundamentals are important , then use TA as a road map.  to enter and exit the market.  

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15 hours ago, dmedin said:

I've given up three months' worth of gains and then some.  Learn to love the trading game, it's for losers! :)

Markets are like elastic bands.  They stretch and stretch and stretch and then suddenly they go ping......Usually hurting your opposite finger that is still holding the band.  

The US stock market (as I ve been ranting on for the last 5-6 weeks ) is overbought and over cooked.  Its an elastic band that is snapping.  It ll probably over do the down side as it swings around trying to find its sea legs again.....

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1 hour ago, cheviot said:

Prof. Kondratieff , 1920 s economist studied the world s economy going back to the 18 th C.  He found the economy the go in waves,  and super cycles.  Hence Kondratieff waves.....Fibonacci used a sequence we all know and love 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 etc and the ratios there by refined from them

He probably picked it up from Richard Wyckoff who started working on Wall street in 1888, wrote the book Studies in Tape Reading in 1900 and started The Magazine of Wall Street in 1907. Of course the Wykcoff Method remains in use to this day and describes the market far better than anything since.

Fibonacci I abandoned years ago as I found it doesn't really belong on charts. 

Everyone can draw their charts just as they like of course and the one I posted looks just fine to me. My line about TA is king was very tongue in cheek as I place more importance in fundamentals than any ABCDEFGHIJKLM pattern anyway.

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People ought to be sensible ... balance their stocks and bonds ... periodically review and rebalance ... otherwise they will have (and deserve to have, implicitly) a very unpleasant retirement ... die off cold, hungry and lonely ... apropos of bourgeois financial wisdom :D

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7 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

I still haven't figured out how you choose direction, still seems to be the art of second guessing plus lots of hope. Try using some tools might help, I did explain the slow and fast wave in sync approach that might help, I remember you weren't impressed but it does work, just need to get your uppsies and downsies in alignment.

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There's a far simpler way one could have benefited from the uptrend in equities that's been in place since late December 2018.  Do you know what it is?  (It would also have allowed you to ride out the downturns and take advantage of the long-term uptrend trend too.)

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Thanks for the input guys, very much appreciated. Having thought long and hard after a trip to my local strip joint and the whole of Saturday to be still, I feel I can make a more rational decision.

I will go with the decision I had late last week to short the Dow. Due to greed and more greed, I bet on the probability for the markets to shoot north a bit more before shorting from a higher level to extract a bit more juice. A mistake I should never have made again.

Dow 30000+, Nasdaq 10000+ will happen, but not this season. I am quite confident (trust with a pinch of salt) that Dow ~28800 will be tested and maybe even ~28400 by the end of next week. As I am currently trapped in a long position, I do hope for Nasdaq to rise a little to reduce my loss which I cannot rely on to help me out. I will start to unwind some and increase my Dow short as soon as market opens.

 

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ūüė™¬† ¬†Milan Fashion Week trip CANCELLED¬†¬†ūü§¨

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The end is nigh - I feel like death on two legs :(

 

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Absolutely GUTTED, it was going to be my BIG BREAK into the world of FASHION.

 

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

The end is nigh - I feel like death on two legs :(

 

Are you taking advantage of this opportunity this time?

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