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Caseynotes

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

20 50 200 SMA is best, I also tried 5 20 50 and it's not as reliable.

RSI is the most useful oscillator.

The other **** isn't very useful (ADX, Directional Movement, Stochastics, the hideous MACD, volume, open interest lololol)

depends on the job you are asking, trend direction confirmation, possible retracement bounce location or crossover trend change of direction. One set of MAs can not do all 3 jobs. The crossover MAs on the Dax chart above are the 3 & 8 linear weighted MAs. Choose the right tools for the job.

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1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Back to being short, oh I am so dumb, I am so stupid, I am so hopeless.  :(

 

TBH we can all f####k it up .  I was limit short Sp and Apple and have been for weeks.....Then last friday pm started f###ing about putting in hedges against my short  equity....i.e. long FTSE ....So I was nett short and still am but am adding to my long ftse on dips....and selling gold and TB as hedges.....All thats happening is...Yes... I ve protected my equity in a way but diluted the profit of being short US

The way I trade is add to shorts on the way up and gradually buy in on the way down....Its averageing  into positions.... Rather than one big hit at something....I.e. at the moment i like £ ...I think its bottoming out well here....So I m just adding little by little.....

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17 hours ago, HPbrand said:

1984? Blimey. You have lived through many of the peaks and troughs.

Yes I joined my first dealing room in 1984.  prop. trading FX,  then went inter bank dealing in a big London dealing room  as a cable trader.....I do nt remember much of the dot com crash,,,,  But I ve been privately trading p/a since around 2004....Mmm seen all the crashes /bear markets/corrections....  Nothing changes.....Fear and greed ....

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49 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Yes I joined my first dealing room in 1984.  prop. trading FX,  then went inter bank dealing in a big London dealing room  as a cable trader.....I do nt remember much of the dot com crash,,,,  But I ve been privately trading p/a since around 2004....Mmm seen all the crashes /bear markets/corrections....  Nothing changes.....Fear and greed ....

Have you ever managed to make money from it?  (Not being rude to you personally, but I do still think it's a mug's game and the only money to be made is in broker's fees, commissions etc hahaha)

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TA was in my dreams for the first time ever last night.  A Youtube tech guy was looking at candlestick charting and was saying how good it looked but some bitter old bloke laughed and said 'try trading it in the moment' and something about hindsight and they all laughed together and called it a load of old b0llocks ... :o

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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

 

 

 

So TA is really based on a hope and a dream 99% of the time.

How does anyone make a living from this kind of thing? 

I mean, fundamental analysis is also b*llocks (people pretending that 'value' is objective and can be measured), but it has the veneer of acceptability and you can charge people for your expert analysis and big reports full of statistics.

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

 

So TA is really based on a hope and a dream 99% of the time.

How does anyone make a living from this kind of thing? 

I mean, fundamental analysis is also b*llocks (people pretending that 'value' is objective and can be measured), but it has the veneer of acceptability and you can charge people for your expert analysis and big reports full of statistics.

not sure why you think the market should automatically respect anything you put on your chart. If I wanted to dump or buy a hundred million of whatever why would you think I should consult you first?

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10 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

not sure why you think the market should automatically respect anything you put on your chart. If I wanted to dump or buy a hundred million of whatever why would you think I should consult you first?

 

So what are all these TA books, sites, courses etc about?

Either they are a useful aid to read the market at least sometimes or they are completely useless?

 

Might as get my pet monkey to throw a dart for me ...

🤔

Edited by dmedin
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19 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

So what are all these TA books, sites, courses etc about?

Either they are a useful aid to read the market at least sometimes or they are completely useless?

 

Might as get my pet monkey to throw a dart for me ...

🤔

a pair of crutches is a useful aid, just not for someone with an arm injury who might then say these crutches don't work and they would be sort of right.

an indicator needs chart context and structure to work with but people don't see that, they just go through a list of indicators chucking them at a chart to see what sticks but then find that what worked yesterday doesn't work today.

so start with the chart first, look at the structure and context then think what job you need the indicator to do then select a specific indicator for that job.

you will probably need a trend indicator and a trigger indicator and an exit indicator and it's highly unlikely you will find any one that does all 3 jobs.

Edited by Caseynotes
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13 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

So what are all these TA books, sites, courses etc about?

Either they are a useful aid to read the market at least sometimes or they are completely useless?

 

Might as get my pet monkey to throw a dart for me ...

🤔

If i want to drive from London to Edinburgh....Thats my fundamental wish/view. 

I get out a map and drive along the appropriate routes to do it....Thats TA

So trading is the same......For particular reasons i wont repeat here...I thought the US market was a sell...for fundamental reasons etc etc ....Caseynotes disagreed and so did a pile of other people....no matter, 

So I wanted to be short the market.....I used TA to get in and with a bit of gut feel and TA I ll get out....But it was my fundamental belief that started me out with the position i took.  (and still have chunks of ). 

So use TA the same....you take a view and use TA to enter/exit.......

....or alternatively you Black Box trade......React only to computer driven signals and be disciplined about it.   

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2 hours ago, dmedin said:

Have you ever managed to make money from it?  (Not being rude to you personally, but I do still think it's a mug's game and the only money to be made is in broker's fees, commissions etc hahaha)

You have to work at it....

Biggest successes have been buying FTSE a few times, cable and cable options, $yen  

Biggest **** kickings.....SWFR /$    the looney...C$...well named.  SP 500 ( I chickened out of the 2018 rally )  I was short , and gave in about a week before it collapsed....😢

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22 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you will probably need a trend indicator and a trigger indicator and an exit indicator and it's highly unlikely you will find any one that does all 3 jobs.

Well the exit indicator one is simple - RSI (divergences in overbought/oversold zones).  It generates fewer, but higher quality signals.

20/50/200 is fine for trend.  Trigger has to be the candles, the price movements (retraces, pattern of highs/lows and other patterns/shapes)

🧐🤠🤔

Edited by dmedin
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4 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Quick tip......Somebody buys sterling at every month end to the minute.....Has happened  2 months in a row so far , £ bid again.....Obviously someone who sells all month long and has to pull it in at every month end.....

As long as you can find a way to make money, it's worthwhile.

I read that most technical traders rely on just one or two good trades a year that they let run for months on end to be profitable because most trades don't work out :(

Imagine if things change and you couldn't make money and you were relying on this as a profession ... wow you'd be so up sh!t creek

Edited by dmedin
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19 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Well the exit indicator one is simple - RSI (divergences in overbought/oversold zones).  It generates fewer, but higher quality signals.

20/50/200 is fine for trend.  Trigger has to be the candles, the price movements (retraces, pattern of highs/lows and other patterns/shapes)

🧐🤠🤔

an exit indicator signals when to exit the trade, if there is no divergence there is no signal so not going to work, not looking for rarity but something absolute. Multiple inline and sloping MAs will work for a trend identifying indicator sure. The trigger also needs to be absolute, chart structure or pattern might provide context but isn't a signal in itself. One down 2 to go.

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