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That is the 50% retrace for  the Dow and S&P. 

It's the opposite, I don't think I'm cut out for day trading.  I still would have been better off keeping a position open from Christmas, even now.  I zoomed out to the day chart and the overall pictu

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Another big sell off inspired by the US session again yesterday with patient recovery during the APAC session. FTSE least affected and nearing the top of range.

Difficult to call whether this 3 bar rally is just a short term retracement before a move to test the lows or a reversal back towards Wednesday's highs. The Euro open at 7:00 may give a hint but the London open at 8:00 should decide it.



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The morning session saw a trip down for Dax to retest 11487 while Dow went sideways, Dax now returning to 11623 as Dow attempts to break up through 25500 which was a support level on Wednesday. So the US session again looks poised to go higher but the story this week has been for the US open to push lower.


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Week end and a look back over the daily charts the Dow looks corrective rather than bearish after the recent refusal to go through the highs while the trade dispute is unresolved.

They have all gone into consolidation with strong support while waiting for new news to determine next direction.

The recently announced new up coming trade talks were put on hold during the week with China refusing to consider making any concessions. Meanwhile reports continue out of China of retail sales being badly hit in large markets such as new car sales and property sales with some new build apartments seeing a 30% price drop. Bloomberg reported during the week on the devastation to retail traders in China's stock market quoting an average loss per trader of 100,000 Yuan (around $15,000). China has run out of ammunition for tariff retaliation and Trump looks happy to continue playing the waiting game.


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All the major indices, including Nikkei, seem to be at consolidation and turn points to me, if the final leg up thesis is valid.  Looking for the first time for a while at the DAX, which I don't usually trade, I noticed a potential Pennant/Triangle formation, which has just touched the bottom line and bounced away.  A breakout of the upper line would confirm another leg up but a spec trade at the bounce is also a decent low risk entry.  A break through the bottom line would be bearish and suggest the final top is in before the greatest Short of our life times.  For now I am leaning towards a final leg up scenario unless or until proven otherwise.  Close stops and tight money management is required more than ever if this is in fact the end game of the Central Bank bubble.




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As expected yesterday the indices went looking for resistance and finding it at the short term highs when price fell back to settle near the starting point. Looking at the charts last night it seemed obvious that the next move would be to retest the lows so was a little annoyed to find this morning that they had already done it with Dax dropping 90 tick in the early hours. The down side may not be over yet though as Dow is still reaching and Nikkei has pushed through it's orange daily support level.  >> 


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FTSE100 is too, I can see another small leg down though before any rally, especially on the NASDAQ, which I am guessing will open soft and hot the 7000 area before any rally, or else plough on through recent lows of course...  Given the depth of the current retrace (if retrace it is...) there is not much to go before we could see a break through support levels, which makes the case for having already seen the end of the Central Bank Bull stronger.  A turn and rally has to happen soon, although this kind of consolidation can go on for ages, I don't think so however as I think the market will resolve this one sooner rather than later.

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Yeah, it just ran into that prior low from a couple of weeks ago 24895 pushing through 20 odd tick and now attempting a bounce, currently back up to 24945 which was support earlier today so interesting to see what happens here.

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SP500 and Dow just short of Fib 62%.  In the former case this is on a parallel tram-line too.  This is an important zone of support I feel.  Could get another test or two on the hourly chart but a firm rally away from here would be Bullish.

Also have PMD on the 4 hour chart.



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Nasdaq appears to be leading again as the Tech Boom 2 revives, but it is a last gasp rally?  There are 2 rally scenarios:

  1. A final leg up to fresh all time highs and market top before a crash slowly begins
  2. The top is already in and this will be a 1-2 retrace to a suitable turning point before a resumption in the drop

But for now I am just concerned with ensuring this is a rally phase at all and the current drop is ended.  Nasdaq has pushed to a higher high in out of ours trading supported by the Nikkei.  It looks like a minim Flag has formed and been broken.  If correct we should not see another significant retrace until the 7350 area.  Let's see...


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A new day and new levels after a sharp recovery rally on the US open yesterday finding resistance and then consolidating in unison during the APAC session.

Once again looking for the European open at 7:00 am to hint at the mornings direction and confirmation on the London open at 8:00 am. Currently they are looking to test the 1 hour chart support levels (green).



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Dow and FTSE leading a late morning charge back up to yesterday's highs after finding support around 10 am.

Dow 15 min bar the strongest of the day or is it the sellers are waiting just up ahead. Get ready for earnings releases.


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Still stuck in consolidation, ho hum!  With a fairly swift move down on US opening I looked for alternative scenarios.  It looks to me like we could see a retest of the 7000 area on Nasdaq (and whatever is similar on others).  This would from an A-B-C deep retrace before a possible rally away off the support levels.  Could take the rest of the day to resolve and leave us with another day of wondering "is this it" tomorrow. 


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Nice bit of bouncing around with Dow revisiting our old friend 24895 twice today. Dax got off to a slow start with poor German PMI manu figures this morning plus concerning data from Deutsche Bank. All 4 kept in reasonable step and with only an hour and a half to go before US close suspecting these levels may hold.


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alas not.  Japan took another tumble.  Looks like everyone is skittish about a big fall, and no surprise there really.  Will have to let this play out a bit to see how things shape up I think.  Without detailed analysis there will be a strong rally but whether that will be a retrace before the big plunge or a final bull splurge is impossible to say at this time.  No need to jump onto the Bear bandwagon at this point as a large part of the current Bear move is done in my view, just waiting to see where it will turn to rally again for clues as to whether or not we have seen the end of the Bull or not.  Either way the next big picture rally will run high and will retrace more than 50% of the current move down.

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11 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

with only an hour and a half to go before US close suspecting these levels may hold.

Ha, famous last words - Dow uses the last hour in the US session to break down through the important 24895 then consolidates during the APAC session.

US durable goods today and Advanced GDP tomorrow.

Currently waiting for a directional break from this short term range.



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Looking at the 4 hour for a sense of near term direction our 4 indices were seeking to retest the recent low which on Dow is 24530 and Dax 11050.

On the 15 min Dax there looks to be some indecision with an opening range marked out between 11200 and the green 11132 so will be looking for a break of either.

US quarterly GDP figures at 1:30 pm today may cause some action prior to the US open.

Draghi speaks at 3:00 pm. 



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