Indices

[Caseynotes]

Dax tried to move higher on the Euro open but was pulled back down on the London open and went on to test 11050 and is now on it's way back to recheck 11226.

Dow found buyers above 24530 and is heading for 24812.

Good beat on q/q US advanced GDP at 3.5%, funny, someone tweeted this morning news that the White House was looking for a good figure around 3.5%.

US open in 40 min.

[Caseynotes]

Should be an interesting Monday, on the weekly chart ftse bounced off clear monthly chart support while dow, dax and nikkei are flapping about in the wind here. A closer look at the dow on the 4 hour we have recent support at 24443 and resistance 24895 the later of which is a significant level mentioned numerous time in last weeks posts above.

So Monday will be a test on one of these two levels. Let the games begin. O.O

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting 'cut out and keep' chart of S&P monthly returns going back to 1982. >>

[Caseynotes]

Like this B of AML bear bull chart, arrow is so bearish it's about to go into the 'Buy' zone.

[Guest PandaFace]

Saw this interesting stat on FT article today “The S&P 500 only fell 3 per cent or more twice in 2012-17, but has now done so four times in 2018 — and twice just this month.”

[Caseynotes]

On the 1 hour the charts are showing a lazy drift down but the Euro open looks to have found support with a strong initial push upward so the morning's session direction not yet clear. The 15 min Dax puts us mid range with a current target at 11300. >>

[Caseynotes]

A strong morning up then a strong push lower. On the US close Dow may have found support at the late June lows. Markets upset again by US warning shots across the bows ahead of new trade talks that if no new efforts by China US is ready with a new round of added tariffs, China of course ran out of ammunition ages ago.

  Dax, FTSE and Nikkei relying on prior support but much will depend on this APAC session.

[Caseynotes]

Markets held firm overnight with tentative reaching to the upside. As mentioned in the APAC report this is all Trump. He is using US economic strength to realign the trade relationship with China who for decades have taken advantage of free trade while keeping their own markets closed and blatantly stealing intellectual property. They may want to 'save face' but at some point they will have to shift position, the Chinese economy is being impacted on all fronts now.

15 min Dax looks like using 11300 as support so will be looking for a break of 11364 for a test on 11447. A downside break of 11300 should lead to a test of 11238 and 11153.  

[Caseynotes]

A catch up on the 15 min Dax. Having tried the upside this morning and turning at resistance is now looking to test support after mulling about the 11300 for a couple of hours

[Mercury]

Nice retrace and touch on the lower Triangle line for the Dow and then pin bar rally away to new ST highs.  Similar on Nasdaq (and SP500) , Not quite yet made new highs.  All going according to road map just now.

 

[phillo]

US 500 

[Caseynotes]

Quite a strong day for indices as it turns out, certainly the strongest for Dow for over 2 weeks but progression upward for indices will need to work through multiple resistance levels not least @elle's S&P 150 ema which has clearly captured the recent decline so well. All to play for with ADP nfp tomorrow, BoE interest rate decision Thursday and the big NFP on Friday. 

[Mercury]

Yes compelling bounce off key support levels with a pin bar and PMD across the board.  Alas not get got a breakout of Triangle formation and therefore could get either a full retrace to the lower line or a simple 1-2 retrace before a push up and through.  If and when that breakout happens then we can anticipate a descent rally.  Both US large Caps are once again in lock step, showing a wide channel perfectly containing overlapping 1-2,3-4 waves, an ending of motive and change of direction formation.  This suggests to me a final leg up to cap the Bull off once and for all.  If this happens it is likely to be swift and overzealous.

  

[Caseynotes]

These 4 hour charts look itching to go higher, they are all chaffing at their daily chart resistance levels (yellow unbroken line) except Nikkei which is back up to it's old weekly support level. The Dax 15 min is again attacking the 11447 on the Euro open, FTSE in similar set up.

[Mercury]

Agree @Caseynotes, I have a breakout of FTSE100 channel, other indices are flirting with their our breakouts but Nasdaq is a bit behind still.  Need to guard against a possible retest, which if it comes offers a good low risk entry point.  Such a move and strong bounce away from the retest would be very bullish and confirm the breakout.  We might get a bit of consolidation until ADP or US open, which could produce the retest.  Early days in the European morning session but the FTSE is quite bullish at present...

[phillo]

Chart shows price now breaking above the 150EMA & moving up through the downward trend lines =positive. However, it is leaving an overnight gap, which I never, personally, like to see. I would have preferred a gap down & then a rally

[Mercury]

I'd really like to see USDJPY get going again with a resistance break through to be confident of a stocks breakout.  This pair especially holds the Nikkei back, which is my preferred stock vehicle at present.  So long as USDJPY doesn't breakout into its rally, and retraces, the chances or stocks breakout area retests are higher.  On the positive side this pair now look to be firmly in a rally phase within the up-slopping channel, which supports a stocks rally scenario

.

[phillo]

looking at that spike down, that may have been a bear trap to gain liquidity for a short squeeze higher, we'll see. Just considering the options  #Tradewhatyousee

[Mercury]

I don't see a Gap on the SP500 on my charts @elle can you show it?

[phillo]

[Mercury]

FTSE100 looking to make fresh highs on the 1 hour for this small consolidation area.  The market is in "clear air" from a support/resistance perspective.  A strong move through should take this market up to 7,200 area initially.  Overall, if this is to be a rally up to the 8,000 zone, I'd expect to see a consolidation Flag formation around about 7,400-7,500.  ST outlook could be curtailed by ADP payroll data and US open jitters and a retrace back to breakout zones cannot be ruled out but the prognosis seems good for a continuation of this rally on consolidation breakout.  I'll be looking for the US markets to push through and away from breakout zones and for Nasdaq to breakout to align the whole piece.

Anyone seeing something different?

 

[phillo]

I'm not quite as "Bullish" as you @Mercury, but agree the upside has potential at the moment. The pink area above is a short term target, with that white 50% fib level a "Bulls Eye"

[Caseynotes]

Ftse doesn't like going it alone unless it has to and is being held up by the Dax which has been out of sorts all morning. >>

[Caseynotes]

Now that the US is open and Dow just tested support we may get a lift on all three (Ftse and Dax).

[Mercury]

Agree @elle the Fib 50% is a first target, which alas conforms to both a standard retrace and turn back down scenario and a halfway point to fresh all time highs.  Let's wait and see how the price action shapes up.  For my money if we get a strong fast move up to the Fib 50% (circa 7,400-7,500 area) and consolidation then it is shaping up more as a motive rally up to new all time highs.  If we get an A-B-C form to the move it would be more like a retrace and turn.  I favour the fresh all time highs before a big drop for the following reasons (this is the same for all major indices I think):

1. We have not yet seen NMD on Weekly/Daily charts at a major top
2. The form of the run down of late fits more with an A-B-C retrace, although you can make a case for a motive 1-5 too so not conclusive this one
3. The bounce away from the 6,800 (and respective zones for other indices, was very strong with good PMD, suggesting good momentum behind this move, I might expect a retrace to be a bit more circumspect before it got going...
4. On the US indices, and perhaps the Nikkei, I have a nice set of tram-lines that suggests another leg up is on the cards.

But as you say, first things first, we need to see a rally from here and trade what we see not what we'd like to see!

Let's see...

[Mercury]

Looking good @Caseynotes, Nasdaq has broken out of its Triangle on opening with strong price action, which means all the majors are now broken out of consolidation.

 

[Caseynotes]

Good beat on the ADP nfp today as well @Mercury, 227k vs 188k expected.

[Mercury]

Last month it was high too @Caseynotes but NFP was much lower so who knows but a least it seems to be providing air cover for the Bulls...

[phillo]

Hope the arrows explain 

[Mercury]

Retest of breakout looks on.