Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Dax & Dow

Recommended Posts

Dax managed to get a bounce up off the trendline but struggling to make any headway as Dow bounces sideways on support.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngGER30(£)H1.pngUS30(£)H1.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Dax takes a fun ride down 100 tick to revisit the Feb 15th low before popping back up to put in a new high of the day.

 

GER30(£)M15.png

Share this post


Link to post

After dax stumbled on Friday while dow gained, both looking to continue higher this week.

 

dd2.PNG

 

Share this post


Link to post

Another dax stumble yesterday (as did dow) the up move is starting to look strained with volume dropping away. Influence of the 89% forecast chance of a US rate rise at end of March FOMC? The US CPI data at 12:30 with it's implications on potential US interest rates may stir the mix.

 

 

GER30(£)H4.png

Share this post


Link to post

Remain in step today following the drop yesterday that seemed to be more about Donald Trump's The Apprentice style 'you're fired' than anything else?

 

dd3.PNG

Share this post


Link to post

Dax is going to try and follow dow and nikkei and break up past it's recent down trendline.

 

GER30(£)H4.pngUS30(£)H4.png

Share this post


Link to post

20 min into the Euro open and dax looks more likely to retest the high at 12326 than the low at 12097. 

 

GER30(£)H1.png

Share this post


Link to post

Resurrecting this thread for an intraday commentary, refer to the Indices thread for the longer term charts.

Pre European open and Dow testing the daily pivot with Dax in tow.

Dow S1 is at yesterday's low 26300 and the first target for any up move is R1 is 26580.

Dax has S1 at 12230 and R1 at yesterday's high at 12330.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.f1b5419643b892db808b262c9eb0ed7f.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax has made several attempts to go higher but reined in by Dow which is just mincing around just below the pivot. Dow looks to have some support at 26400 but not much enthusiasm to try a move up. 

image.thumb.png.853eda5f4b82c21c5635bfe865d893c0.png

Share this post


Link to post

DAX 4 Hour

Running out of steam?

Watch the osc zero line

DAX-4-hours.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax H1 trying to make a break for R1 without Dow, sometimes it works but not usually;

image.thumb.png.f0fb0ce059c697515900bd2208400e78.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax has been jumping up to try to take a bite out of R1 all day but Dow not playing, even after the GDP beat and the US open, so leaving Dax to fall back to pivot each time.

image.thumb.png.41ecb452cc3e65a46b6d2f3ca8383e30.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax really pulling away, if can hold above the daily resistance level 12353 the next resistance is not until 12453.

image.thumb.png.bccdfd05c742e1528d3518cd359eb127.png

image.thumb.png.60d485eed9b533d572cf455172d19117.png

Share this post


Link to post

S&P tried a strong push on high but got knocked back down, Dow and Dax the same. Big moves, lots of money being thrown around.

1 minute charts;

image.thumb.png.42543bde35971c003307ae64c7d1dfb9.png

image.thumb.png.9b6e4b6a4f4fc0c4c385bf7d5c05c797.png

Share this post


Link to post

After the false start this morning S&P well away into new ATHs, Dow and Dax following though still with some way to go to get to their respective ATHs.

image.thumb.png.56f50dee8e1f6acc8bb57c1d5f87a6cb.png

image.thumb.png.3a273a58b51158ccb7808c220ee047a8.png

image.thumb.png.3772828940e582a5d3464fdf1b5ed180.png

Share this post


Link to post

On the London open Dow stays centered at the pivot while Dax returns up to it's pivot having found support at 12290.

If Dax can break through the pivot the first target is 12350 then R1 at 12380.

image.thumb.png.5493258b53c848598b39c247bc65296e.png

Share this post


Link to post

Watch out for the EUR flash GDP at 10:00 am today expected to come in at 0.3%.

Share this post


Link to post

Quite an exciting round trip for Dow, first up to test R1 then R2 then back down to beyond S1 and now back roughly where it started. Dax couldn't keep up so instead targeted 12350 and held on.

Dow was a similar story to the S&P today, an attempt to push higher quashed then the same for the attempt to push lower. Still has plenty of support at this level.

image.thumb.png.d0a2d4002a06488ee8904693529160e1.png

Share this post


Link to post

Taking a look at market profile for a few days, though MP has lost some of it's impact due to the adoption of 24 hr markets I'm looking specifically at the point of control and value areas. Let's see also if I can predict the high and low of day after the first hour of London open (bit silly to try on a fomc day but ...)

Dax currently looking for support. LT bull, MT neutral and ST is bull so looking to fade off support as well as buy pullbacks.

Dow is currently LT bull, MT bull and ST neutral so waiting.

image.thumb.png.f1e30e37b859c8caf6be2ff930eb6b00.png

image.thumb.png.363c0aa4c9577674c082341b5082ad4d.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

NB; don't forget German bank holiday today so the Dax spread stays high.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Ok, so (during the London market open hours)  the LOD is going to be 12384 and the HOD will be around 12460 (between R1 and R2).

Even though being a Ger bank holiday and a FOMC day I really can't see what could possibly go wrong with this prediction 🙄

If by some inexplicable quirk of fate this fails miserably I'll keep trying on a daily bases in the hope of averaging out. 

 

image.thumb.png.f53f6c85538b26b4770edc9041ada9e4.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax at an "old" level   & H&S patterns 

Capture dax.PNG

Share this post


Link to post

After a rather tedious morning session dax and dow make a break down for the pivot helped by a miss on the US manu PMI which came in at 52.4.

image.thumb.png.5d23d42cd53043f956efa0bf0ed8ac7e.png

Share this post


Link to post

The combo of mixed earnings results, slight miss on the US manu PMI and a frozen Fed's Powell yesterday lead to a loss of confidence in the indices that may turn out to be overdone as is often the case on initial reactions.

Dax is LT bull, MT bull/neutral and ST neutral/bearish. Currently lingering midway between S1 and pivot (as is Dow) and both looking a little lost.

Waiting for the Eur open at 7 am to give a hint at direction then the more important London open at 8 am. And then in the first hour of the London session to see if we can identify the low or high of the session and then try to plot out the opp high/low target based on the current 14 day average true range which is currently 90ish odd points.

image.thumb.png.d5d9d4c2f0b30fa6bb40910b24044836.png

Share this post


Link to post

Well this is fun, the 90 point range was reached by the 7 am candle, resistance found at yesterdays value area low then a strong 30 min red candle down to find support at today's value area low  (12300) and we still haven't had the PMIs yet  😂

image.thumb.png.825db0fa7a422ff7bcea18acec105708.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Our picks

    • Post in Indices
      "UK retail sales at 9:30 and US durable goods at 1:30. Strong bear day yesterday though only Nikkei tested key support levels." Stay up to date on how the indices are moving and have your say.
    • Post in Successful strategy?
      Analysis of 43 million trades by DailyFX showed that 61% of trades are actually profitable (when looking at EURUSD specifically). Read more about that and check out their Podcast here. Have any questions? Ask away.
        • Thanks
        • Like
    • Brent Crude rally ends, time for the big Bear!
      "Looks to me like my question as to whether the the 25 April turn was a rally end or a simple retrace may have been answered as Brent price dropped hard through the supporting lower channel line.  I would like to see the recent lows broken to confirm but odds are that this market is now heading down.  Could this mean that Stocks have also topped out?"
      • 7 replies
    • Post in Dax & Dow
      What are your long term opinions on market movements? "As for the Dow above 26k lets rock and roll long. Below 25k time to get more aggressively short in my eyes."
        • Like
    • Post in US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity
      What's your trigger for opening a trade? Discuss with others on the Community, specifically about the US500: "I think there's a potential possibility of shorting S&P 500 brewing.  I want to wait to see if the 20 MA does drop beneath the 50 MA."
  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      6,746
    • Total Posts
      31,150
    • Total Members
      40,995
    Newest Member
    marcorosso13
    Joined 24/05/19 14:00
  • Posts

    • Great notes guys. This a really interesting thread. Of the couple of Dax trades that I have done. I do think it a worthwhile index to trade. The 11400 zone is my first main target where Merc highlighted the gap on the chart. This next 6 months could see outsize moves now we will have more Brexit uncertainty and trade war moves. Under the hood Global capital seems to tighten even though we have Fed easing. There is more debt to sell - interesting to see when the rubber really hits the road. Casey looked at the sentiment a couple of weeks back and suggested too many were short orientated. I agreed then. Does feel now that sands are shifting beneath. But the short side is always there...  
    • End of May sees the end of May. You missed a trick there. 
    • After the check at the pivot dax moved on to tag R1, currently back to join dow mid way between pivot and R1 awaiting the US market open. May be a tame Friday afternoon and into US market close as it's a public holiday in the US on Monday as well as UK.
    • You may well be right @786Trader there are a lot of fundamentals based theories around so yours is as good as anyone's.  My hypothesis is not based on Oil fundamentals but can be summed up in 2 words: Deflationary Depression. Regarding the Dow, this attached is my long term view.  
×
×