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Dax & Dow


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  • 2 weeks later...

Another dax stumble yesterday (as did dow) the up move is starting to look strained with volume dropping away. Influence of the 89% forecast chance of a US rate rise at end of March FOMC? The US CPI data at 12:30 with it's implications on potential US interest rates may stir the mix.

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 year later...

Resurrecting this thread for an intraday commentary, refer to the Indices thread for the longer term charts.

Pre European open and Dow testing the daily pivot with Dax in tow.

Dow S1 is at yesterday's low 26300 and the first target for any up move is R1 is 26580.

Dax has S1 at 12230 and R1 at yesterday's high at 12330.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.f1b5419643b892db808b262c9eb0ed7f.png

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Quite an exciting round trip for Dow, first up to test R1 then R2 then back down to beyond S1 and now back roughly where it started. Dax couldn't keep up so instead targeted 12350 and held on.

Dow was a similar story to the S&P today, an attempt to push higher quashed then the same for the attempt to push lower. Still has plenty of support at this level.

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Taking a look at market profile for a few days, though MP has lost some of it's impact due to the adoption of 24 hr markets I'm looking specifically at the point of control and value areas. Let's see also if I can predict the high and low of day after the first hour of London open (bit silly to try on a fomc day but ...)

Dax currently looking for support. LT bull, MT neutral and ST is bull so looking to fade off support as well as buy pullbacks.

Dow is currently LT bull, MT bull and ST neutral so waiting.

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Ok, so (during the London market open hours)  the LOD is going to be 12384 and the HOD will be around 12460 (between R1 and R2).

Even though being a Ger bank holiday and a FOMC day I really can't see what could possibly go wrong with this prediction 🙄

If by some inexplicable quirk of fate this fails miserably I'll keep trying on a daily bases in the hope of averaging out. 

 

image.thumb.png.f53f6c85538b26b4770edc9041ada9e4.png

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The combo of mixed earnings results, slight miss on the US manu PMI and a frozen Fed's Powell yesterday lead to a loss of confidence in the indices that may turn out to be overdone as is often the case on initial reactions.

Dax is LT bull, MT bull/neutral and ST neutral/bearish. Currently lingering midway between S1 and pivot (as is Dow) and both looking a little lost.

Waiting for the Eur open at 7 am to give a hint at direction then the more important London open at 8 am. And then in the first hour of the London session to see if we can identify the low or high of the session and then try to plot out the opp high/low target based on the current 14 day average true range which is currently 90ish odd points.

image.thumb.png.d5d9d4c2f0b30fa6bb40910b24044836.png

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Well this is fun, the 90 point range was reached by the 7 am candle, resistance found at yesterdays value area low then a strong 30 min red candle down to find support at today's value area low  (12300) and we still haven't had the PMIs yet  😂

image.thumb.png.825db0fa7a422ff7bcea18acec105708.png

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