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Dax & Dow

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Dax managed to get a bounce up off the trendline but struggling to make any headway as Dow bounces sideways on support.

 

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Dax takes a fun ride down 100 tick to revisit the Feb 15th low before popping back up to put in a new high of the day.

 

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After dax stumbled on Friday while dow gained, both looking to continue higher this week.

 

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Another dax stumble yesterday (as did dow) the up move is starting to look strained with volume dropping away. Influence of the 89% forecast chance of a US rate rise at end of March FOMC? The US CPI data at 12:30 with it's implications on potential US interest rates may stir the mix.

 

 

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Remain in step today following the drop yesterday that seemed to be more about Donald Trump's The Apprentice style 'you're fired' than anything else?

 

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Dax is going to try and follow dow and nikkei and break up past it's recent down trendline.

 

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20 min into the Euro open and dax looks more likely to retest the high at 12326 than the low at 12097. 

 

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Resurrecting this thread for an intraday commentary, refer to the Indices thread for the longer term charts.

Pre European open and Dow testing the daily pivot with Dax in tow.

Dow S1 is at yesterday's low 26300 and the first target for any up move is R1 is 26580.

Dax has S1 at 12230 and R1 at yesterday's high at 12330.

H1 charts;

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Dax has made several attempts to go higher but reined in by Dow which is just mincing around just below the pivot. Dow looks to have some support at 26400 but not much enthusiasm to try a move up. 

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DAX 4 Hour

Running out of steam?

Watch the osc zero line

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Dax H1 trying to make a break for R1 without Dow, sometimes it works but not usually;

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Dax has been jumping up to try to take a bite out of R1 all day but Dow not playing, even after the GDP beat and the US open, so leaving Dax to fall back to pivot each time.

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Dax really pulling away, if can hold above the daily resistance level 12353 the next resistance is not until 12453.

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S&P tried a strong push on high but got knocked back down, Dow and Dax the same. Big moves, lots of money being thrown around.

1 minute charts;

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After the false start this morning S&P well away into new ATHs, Dow and Dax following though still with some way to go to get to their respective ATHs.

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On the London open Dow stays centered at the pivot while Dax returns up to it's pivot having found support at 12290.

If Dax can break through the pivot the first target is 12350 then R1 at 12380.

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Watch out for the EUR flash GDP at 10:00 am today expected to come in at 0.3%.

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Quite an exciting round trip for Dow, first up to test R1 then R2 then back down to beyond S1 and now back roughly where it started. Dax couldn't keep up so instead targeted 12350 and held on.

Dow was a similar story to the S&P today, an attempt to push higher quashed then the same for the attempt to push lower. Still has plenty of support at this level.

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Taking a look at market profile for a few days, though MP has lost some of it's impact due to the adoption of 24 hr markets I'm looking specifically at the point of control and value areas. Let's see also if I can predict the high and low of day after the first hour of London open (bit silly to try on a fomc day but ...)

Dax currently looking for support. LT bull, MT neutral and ST is bull so looking to fade off support as well as buy pullbacks.

Dow is currently LT bull, MT bull and ST neutral so waiting.

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NB; don't forget German bank holiday today so the Dax spread stays high.

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Ok, so (during the London market open hours)  the LOD is going to be 12384 and the HOD will be around 12460 (between R1 and R2).

Even though being a Ger bank holiday and a FOMC day I really can't see what could possibly go wrong with this prediction 🙄

If by some inexplicable quirk of fate this fails miserably I'll keep trying on a daily bases in the hope of averaging out. 

 

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Dax at an "old" level   & H&S patterns 

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After a rather tedious morning session dax and dow make a break down for the pivot helped by a miss on the US manu PMI which came in at 52.4.

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The combo of mixed earnings results, slight miss on the US manu PMI and a frozen Fed's Powell yesterday lead to a loss of confidence in the indices that may turn out to be overdone as is often the case on initial reactions.

Dax is LT bull, MT bull/neutral and ST neutral/bearish. Currently lingering midway between S1 and pivot (as is Dow) and both looking a little lost.

Waiting for the Eur open at 7 am to give a hint at direction then the more important London open at 8 am. And then in the first hour of the London session to see if we can identify the low or high of the session and then try to plot out the opp high/low target based on the current 14 day average true range which is currently 90ish odd points.

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Well this is fun, the 90 point range was reached by the 7 am candle, resistance found at yesterdays value area low then a strong 30 min red candle down to find support at today's value area low  (12300) and we still haven't had the PMIs yet  😂

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    • Some excuse is needed for a pullback ...
    • The spike down in indices in the last hour was the same ol' trade war news, China stating they are less optimistic than the US and feel they have been mislead by recent talks where they felt they had agreement over a rollback of tariffs that the US now say is not the case. After 18 months of this you should be use to it by now. 
    • Dax, Nikkei and FTSE100 remain below recent (past 2 weeks) turning points and we have seen an interesting recent bearish candle in play on US large caps, a potential spike and retrace back down, which could signal rally exhaustion.  In the case of the Dow and Nasdaq this occurred with an overshoot of the 4H chart rally channel and in the case of the Nasdaq also the Daily and Monthly long term resistance trend lines (overshoot and quick retrace being a particular signal of an exhaustion phase).  In the case of the SP500 this has occurred with a hit right on the Daily resistance trend line and rejection, so far at least.  As I have mentioned before: with volume relatively weak and seemingly in a down trend; and with COT net long positions weak and weakening (not what one would expect of a breakout rally); and with Gold/Silver rallying; and with NMD at the turn points on all markets and as USDJPY has also taken a similar bearish hit; the odds of a bearish phase are good and the risk reward is decent. I am already Short Dax and FTSE100 off the previous turns but money where my mouth is this time on SP500, as the exposure is tiny, I am Short off the hit and turn on the daily trend line with tight stops just above.  
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