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Dax just moving up to the pivot for the European market open, shortened S/R levels from yesterday's lack of movement. The Dow R1 is the one to watch (yesterday's high), a break there should lead to further gains.

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Overnight looking for support. Daily pivots using Friday's data, Dax currently resting on S1 with Dow heading towards S1, may all turn around on the European open at 7am or the London open at 8am so watching firstly for who controls the pivot to indicate this morning's direction.

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Dax storms up to the pivot on the London open, finds sellers waiting.

M15 charts;

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The recent pattern of heavy overnight trading continues, as mentioned in the Indices thread the red lines here for both Dax and Dow are important support levels. Likely to see an attempt to check the pivot this morning.

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No attempt to check the pivot, Dax went for S3 and now back up to tag S2 while Dow tagged S1 then onto S2 and now reversing back up.

Fed chair Powell speaks at 1:45 may provide some reaction before the US open.

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Guest phil

Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.4%. Japan’s Topix index closed 0.2% lower, with technology shares among the worst performers after Apple Inc. dragged down peers following an analyst downgrade. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.8% by 5:50 a.m. in a broad-based sell off, with chemical companies weighing on the gauge following a profit warning from BASF SE. S&P 500 futures pointed to a loss at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.068% and gold declined. 

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Dow tags the pivot before the US close, Dax stuck at S1.

H1 charts.

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Both ducking under the daily pivot on the European open looking for support, will wait for the London open to confirm direction.

H1 charts;

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After an initial move lower Dow back to re-check the pivot with Dax following so direction for the session still undecided.

H1 charts;

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The Dax has just tagged yesterdays low and could now make an attempt at this mornings high. 👿

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Dow retraces 50% back to R1 while Dax sits on S1. Tomorrow may well bring continuation higher lead by Dow.

H1 charts;

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Starting the day looking for support, Dax below the pivot may find it here at 12392 or further down 70s then 50s. Dow above the pivot but has 2 resistance levels to climb through to get to R1 at 27013.

H1 charts;

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Wall St. is getting close to 27000 again and the Dax is lagging well behind. I expected a strong rally this morning especially with the FTSE looking bullish but that's not happened yet so here's my worry:

13:30 High UNITED STATES-JOBLESS CLAIMS - INITIAL CLAIMS

If this is a bad print Wall St could reverse yesterdays spike in a flash and we could see the Dax heading for 12250. 👿

Wall St. H1

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Dax H4

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Dow closing in on yesterday's high with CPI and jobs data in a few minutes. Data these days is a double edged sword, don't want to see figures so good they reduce the expectancy of a rate cut latter this month.

Dax struggling to stay above S1.

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Dow resting on R1 after a hard climb up during the US and Asian sessions while Dax is still pulling it's boots on. Dax made little effort yesterday and the burden of a sagging EU economy is really weighing. EU indy prod figures at 10am.

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Guest facepalm

The U.S. budget deficit widened by 23% to $747 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year, a chasm tied to Republican tax cuts that largely benefited corporations and the rich. Government spending increased to $3.36 trillion, up 6.6% from a year earlier. But Wall Street stayed sanguine: The Dow surpassed 27,000 for the first time, following Wednesday’s record 3,000 mark for the S&P 500. —David E. Rovella

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EU indy prod figures better than expected but still fairly dire, Dax not impressed, currently range bound.

m/m   0.9% against 0.2% expected  

y/y   minus 0.5% against minus 1.5% expected.

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Dow retesting the all time high from overnight but lacking real drive at the mo, it took the US market open to provide the push yesterday.

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Dow punches straight into R2 on the US market open while Dax still languishes below the pivot, the correlation really has broken down for now. 

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Guest Homer Enronride

What the hell is going om with Dax?

Moves like a dead fish in water

Could it be something with Deutsche bank?

 

 

 

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Dax still trapped in this down slide while Dow goes onto new highs. Both have just run into resistance this morning after getting a lift at 3:00am presumably off the better than expected China indy prod and retail sales data.

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Round trip for Dax from the pivot to R2 and back again, same for Dow but to R1.

Dax trying to hang onto the pivot, if not could see a test of S1 around 12290.

M30 charts;

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Dax back up to R1 (12370) after a visit to S1, Dow confirmed support at 27323 and heading towards 27400 again.

M15 charts;

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I don't like the look of Wall St. this afternoon, it appears to want to retrace to test 27285 if that beaks then we are starring at 27,000 and that could put the Dax back into a spin. 👿

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    • Going back to my FTSE analysis I see things as follows: 2 scenarios present themselves, other than fresh ATHs that is: 1) the move down to the turn on Thursday was a wave 1 (blue) off a larger scale wave 2 (purple) that should retrace, maybe in a complex fashion with a lot of whip saw price action maybe not, let's see; 2) the recent rally and drop to a new low was a 1-2 (red), which indicates a much stronger leg down is immanent. The #2 scenario would only be valid if price holds below the previous high (circa 7300).  I favour the #1 scenario. There was PMD on the 4H chart at wave 1 (blue), which suggests this is a turning point.  Also the 4H chart shows a 1-5 wave down to the 1 blue, which would be motive and suggests a trend change to the bearish side. There was strong NMD at wave 2 (Purple) which is consistent with a large scale retrace move. Just as with the US large caps, after the stop and turn up there was a sharp retrace drop to the Fib 76/78% zone before the current rally.  As the FTSE was in out of hours at the end of the week this market has not rallied as hard as the US markets.  Also we may yet see fresh ATHs on US large caps while the FTSE100 only puts in a counter trend rally. If we do see fresh ATHs on US large caps and only a retrace on FTSE and probably Dax and Nikkei as well then comparing these markets will be instructive for calling that top on US large caps.  We may, alternatively, see only a retrace on US large caps too if the top of the market in already in. Conclusion: we can anticipate a bullish period on all major indices BUT should guard against a quick reversal on FTSE 100 that would set up scenario #2.  Either way this market looks to have topped out so the coming months though to the Autumn will be critical to deciding things on all indices, and likely quite a few other markets. I am Long the FTSE 100, coincident with my Dow Longs and will swing this up for now but my bearish bias for the long term will keep we watchful for a break down of this rally and I will not be pyramiding this one, far too risky until things are resolved.
    • "....more broadly we have seen currency wars but these have not really captured the imagination of the MSM yet" Actually I'd argue we have had currency wars for some years already. History shows it goes in the following order: Currency war, Trade war, War. (Regrettably).  If I recall correctly the market falls of early 2015 (about 20% down) were blamed on Yuan being devalued by Chinese manipulation. Way before Trump! "....we suddenly get a super massive set of central bank policies that drop rates to zero" Again I'd say that has been going on for some years. Arguably you could say about 35 years since the Plaza Accord. Once fiat became unaccountable (no gold standard) the politicians proceeded to spend, spend spend =debt,debt,debt. Expect MMT  (US Democrats pushing modern monetary theory) to allow them to continue in that vein. Again history says these currencies will all eventually disappear, like species, approx 95% no longer exist.  Broadly I agree with what you say. The present financial system is critically sick that's for sure. It has propped up assets with huge doses of QE and zero rate interest policy (expect more of that when the ECB meets next month). You are correct about the size of stock markets. If the global market was a horse the bond market would be three legs of it! I digress.... However, if you are faced with massive debts then here are your options: 1) Default - Argentinian/Zimbabwe style. Not likely, at least until all other options tried - as that's the end game. 2) Grow the economy at a fast enough rate to meet and exceed future repayment obligations. In a global low anaemic growth environment? Unlikely. 3) Inflate like mad. It's the only viable option. You could, reasonably say, that after 3 massive QE sessions and ZIRP and now  NIRP that deflation is winning. Arguably it's all been a waste of time / money. Where's the kitchen sink? Presumably more of the same and then some helicopter money? It seems to me that this is more in line with Japan (targeted 10yr bond rate = 0%) which someone said in the 90s was  "...the dress rehearsal. The rest of the world will be the main event". Trying to get inflation without destroying the USD global reserve status is unlikely in my opinion and you can't help but feel that some sort of Bretton Woods global RESET will eventually emerge. It's certainly what Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Turkey etc are angling for.....and their central banks have been big buyers of bullion recently. That's why I'd recommend holding gold. Not as a trading strategy (which is what I appreciate this forum is). Nice sharing these thoughts with you>
    • So it looks like my crazy set of channels on the Daily chart is still holding well.  The breakout of the last channel line, which coincides with a nice zone of lateral S/R was retested but failed as I noted in my previous post.  I got Short off an initial rejection from this zone and Resistance line with a tight stop but price never came back so nicely in on a couple of Short positions and stop protected at BE.  Price moved back through the monthly lower channel line (purple) and put in a quick daily candle failed retest and dropped away.  It is possible we could see another retest of this resistance zone before any further move but a break below the 5760 level would be indicative that the Bear has resumed and obviously a break of the previous low around the $56 mark would once again bring $50 into focus.  
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