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Interesting to see what comes out at 1:30, Dax and Dow got a shot in the arm from the ECB, though no cut today still looking in that direction.

Dax and Dow rally to R1.

M5 charts;

image.thumb.png.9d062d21466c5d341d9bbe34c1237027.png

 

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Well.  I certainly didn't see that coming.  i actually thought it was going to drop so placed a trade but doubted it so got out right away.  I'd have lost.  Been out today, then dropped.  Wow.

 

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1 hour ago, nit2wynit said:

Well.  I certainly didn't see that coming.  i actually thought it was going to drop so placed a trade but doubted it so got out right away.  I'd have lost.  Been out today, then dropped.  Wow.

 

yes, when the Indices decide on a big move they can be quite stylish and such a day is not too uncommon.

 

image.thumb.png.84df7b165fef51c5227db3b48305e7b8.png

image.thumb.png.6e76dec8c5d4d4d59921e384bc221f4c.png

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What the hell has happened today?  Did I miss something in the news?  Brexit? Boris?

 

The whole world has slumped!

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11 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

What the hell has happened today?  Did I miss something in the news?  Brexit? Boris?

 

The whole world has slumped!

lol, and on no news, amazing.

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1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

lol, and on no news, amazing.

ooor, could it have had something to do with the ECB rate decision where everyone was expecting some sort of EU  easing in mon pol to match the US expectations, even a rate cut, then the release said no but hinted soon, then Draghi's presser and said a cut was never even discussed, but now after the plunge saying well ... Sept def. 

Just Draghi playing yoyo with the market.

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21 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

ooor, could it have had something to do with the ECB rate decision where everyone was expecting some sort of EU  easing in mon pol to match the US expectations, even a rate cut, then the release said no but hinted soon, then Draghi's presser and said a cut was never even discussed, but now after the plunge saying well ... Sept def. 

Just Draghi playing yoyo with the market.

I've no idea what all that means.

I have more research to do :D

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

What the hell has happened today?  Did I miss something in the news?  Brexit? Boris?

 

The whole world has slumped!

 

Genuine, serious question for you.

Did you consider what I said when I quoted a very well-respected chap who said 'Master inter-day trading before attempting intra-day trading'.

Scalping/minute-trading isn't working out ... if there is a higher chance of success doing inter-day / swing trading why aren't you thinking about doing that instead?

Edited by dmedin

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4 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I've no idea what all that means.

I have more research to do :D

you don't necessarily need to know what but do need to know when something important is going to happen, many impose on themselves a trading blackout 20 min before and 45 min after a red data release. see the cut out below  from my daily dashboard post from this morning or look at any econ calendar.

image.png.0f407bcca62d3465db2a8ec2d573989e.png 

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Just now, dmedin said:

Scalping/minute-trading isn't working out ... if there is a higher chance of success doing intra-day / swing trading why aren't you thinking about doing that instead?

What's not working for me is a resolute idea that I stick to.   At the moment I've mixed up what i want to achieve and how to achieve it.   Being pulled between going long for small, where there's no way my psychology could handle a 40 point up 30 point down uptrend.  I'm not comfortable giving back that kind of profit.  I'm still in the stages of a development plan.  It's fine tuning.  I've considered Intraday this week. 

Case in point.  If I'd been trading with my 2k account and £5 per point that £50 win £16 losses would have been £250 up £80 down.  They're the kind of results I often made on the Demo. (if you don't know what I'm talking about i refer to my post in Is Spread betting for Fools and the subsequent results following the Dax spike 2 days ago)  I made 50 riding the up and down.  If I'd only gone long I'd have made about £25.  Sure the day would have been easier, but i was practicing my in and out points too.  The fact i gave it all back and more yesterday is still part of my learning when the reversal is on a time frame I'm not used to.  It dropped today clearly.  I was just too early anticipating it.

I don't want to place a trade and walk away.  I want to place several trades in 2 hours and walk away knowing the profit is there.  I won't be able to rest knowing I have a long trade open.  Look what happened today.  I WAS going to go Short with a £25 Stop; the biggest stop I would have ever placed at 50ppp.   Ironically it would have taken me Up before it went down, but I'd have been monitoring it all day.  It would have taken me right to the Stop Limit.  It's not what I want to be doing.

Therefore If I can be pretty certain of my in points, then why is it not possible to have a higher ppp and shorter limit?

I've said in the past.  It depends on what your goals are.  I have the time to trade all day if I want too, but it's too long.  the last 2 days I've over traded.  I've gone from a New Starting Balance of 986 up to 1028 back down to 910.  I will get this back up to 1k next week.  I'm just not sure about what my preferred Instrument is going to be.

I'd be happy to make £50 per day in 2 hours.  I can do it if i can find the right instrument.  The Indicies are highly volatile that's now clear to me.  I'm still on the fence whether i should be Buying Selling £2 shares or SB.

Clock is still ticking.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

from my daily dashboard

I had no Idea you had such a thing lol.

OK.  I'll put some time toward it.  But regardless, I did say it was going to rally to R1 :D.  With no other info than the chart.  I also said to my partner last night that i felt the market was stiffled and a drop was imminent.  I just didn't trade it coz I was asleep.

Edited by nit2wynit

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@dmedin Sorry Inter day, not Intra.

I can't sleep knowing i have a trade running.  To me it's like letting the engine run on your motor and going to bed hoping it still has fuel in it.  lol.  Probably not the best example.

But i will try it on certain trades.  The shares I've found etc often have had massive Guaranteed Stop that would sink me if activated.  So so far I've not found something I'd hold that has limited costs.

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Posted (edited)

@nit2wynit

I've been running a trade on Coca Cola (short) for two days and it's going well so far.  The possibility of waking up to a huge gap up open is there but for a well-known company, after earnings release, it is remote.  Maybe I just don't fear it so much because I haven't experienced it yet.

Edited by dmedin

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Maybe I just don't fear it so much because I haven't experienced it yet.

So you don't have Gstop on it?

I can't remember that last trade I considered going next day on but I do remember the GS being 374 if triggered..................it was 2 per point.....

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

So you don't have Gstop on it?

I can't remember that last trade I considered going next day on but I do remember the GS being 374 if triggered..................it was 2 per point.....

No I don't.  Maybe I should.  I doubt Coca Cola is going to collapse overnight though.  :D

The spread is already enormous ... indicating that there's a lot of other people selling right now too.

 

Edit: spread is narrowing now...

Edited by dmedin

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33 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Edit: spread is narrowing now...

At current support but suggests further drop. But I reckon it'll bounce and go back up.  I'd take profit now and go back in if it favours .  That is not advice lol.  Just my initial thought.  In garden drinking a beer.  I'm not trading now till next week.

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17 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I thought the same, took the money and ran :D

Woohoo.  Profit while it's there.  Now double up on stake and use profit as a buffer...lose it all....that's what I do......lol

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7 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Woohoo.  Profit while it's there.  Now double up on stake and use profit as a buffer...lose it all....that's what I do......lol

I'm just like that too.

But I have found that since I started taking my time and not trading to scalp or 'day' trade I am stemming my losses and can occasionally make some money on a swing/position trade, which gives me some hope that I can make this work long term.

Sadly I don't think I can do this for a living, even although I want to one day.

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Sadly I don't think I can do this for a living, even although I want to one day.

Well........I have been an entrepreneur for 20 years.  Never to be rich but to buy freedom.  Time has always been more important to me.  In hindsight it was never a choice.  I just don't want to Work.........Day Job.  Etc.  Same money each week.

 

However.  Every single thing you do requires want, passion, discipline and a plan.  At times you've got to risk big to make little, risk little to lose little and risk nothing to gain nothing.  If you do any of these things an gain lots then stick with it.

 

My biggest loss on a project was 80k.  Left me with nothing.  After all my small previous successes this cost it all.

 

Trading Dax for first time this week taught me something new.  While trading Ftse at 5 per point I'd scalp 3 or 4 points at key SR.  But I'd only risk 2 points. So 10.  Trading Dax at 50p I need to leave 25 for long game as It moves so much.

 

There is a balance in PPP Stake, Spread and Reward that I've still not figured out.

 

 

I received a tip on Snapchat before the spike the other day but I was watching Dax.  Check it out.  Tomorrow I'll work out what it would have cost to SB and what I might have earned buying and selling.

 

This is not the place for this chat.  Maybe keep it on your thread.

 

 

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Dax and Dow making their way up to the new daily pivot, whom soever controls the pivot controls short term direction and with price so close on the open there is likely to be an initial battle to take control.

Intraday keeping it simple, price above the pivot look for longs price below look for shorts.

image.thumb.png.5f3234f978c7750ba66bc62e67e16a29.png

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

Trading Dax for first time this week taught me something new.  While trading Ftse at 5 per point I'd scalp 3 or 4 points at key SR.  But I'd only risk 2 points. So 10.  Trading Dax at 50p I need to leave 25 for long game as It moves so much.

The average true range for dax daily is currently 125 points while for ftse it is 55 points, that's fairly typical of the differential between the two, 20 point moves for dax throughout the day are quite common. Yesterday's big one hour slide is quite rare though a couple of times a week there will be 100 point moves over several hours so it's a case of expecting the 20 move but be ready for the occasional larger one.   

Edited by Caseynotes
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Bit dull today after yesterday but US GDP Q2 came in a beat at 2.1% (annulised), Dow hovering just above the pivot and Dax just below, all very cautious so far with the US market open coming up. For the last few weeks US traders were happy to drive price up right into the close but not looking so brave today.

image.thumb.png.e2bc3fe1e65dd0791ca650c4e467200d.png

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Both have shifted under the Pivot this morning, Dow currently trying to bounce up off S1.

Bulls will be looking to capture the Pivot then test Friday's highs while the Bears will be trying for a test of Thursday's lows.

Starting holiday season this week so may see calmer markets this month though there will be US/China news this week and NFP on Friday..

image.thumb.png.738aabfc7c5039a378c3d24fa71fa98c.png

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DAX daily

I wish it would be as simple as this😁

 

 

DAX mirror.png

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Dow above the pivot and looks to have checked on the 7am bar so may be set for a test of the recent high 27275 next, Dax just ducked under the pivot on the European open but now looking to get back above, if we do get a move higher on the London open Dax should look to test the recent high at 12461.

image.thumb.png.67a3085303d267056f11dbb3aa03532c.png

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Dax breaking down past last Wednesday's low 12168 after the EU business climate data came in at minus 0.12. Dow looking to test  S2.

H4 charts;

image.thumb.png.5fe2799bd405f12088ba9c9dfa28255c.png

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Dow having another try for 27275 resistance above the pivot while Dax well below the pivot but looking to challenge resistance at 12180 with support below at 12069.

image.thumb.png.c98156c865f01be2ab2c7ef10594883d.png

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London open and Dax looking for R1 around 12225 while Dow starts under the pivot 26937 and looking to test.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.9c2f468580735835ef5a2b32c7529b1b.png

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Following on from this morning's post and Dax did go on to check R1 and Dow on to check the pivot, both now waiting on the US open.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.37fe087a7eb00f49a3bc82e5de29cb99.png

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