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3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Is any of this stuff actually important?

Nope ... they're still going to lose lots of money from day trading.

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Why would that be? Check through the posts above, the morning direction calls have been accurate and the targets have been hit and not used any of the 'stuff' some seem to think should be in the Academy as though it was an essential prerequisite to trading. Does time scale or which indicators you use actually matter, seems more important to develope the skill to read multi time frame chart structure and understanding what the candles are saying than anything else. Price is always just looking for support or resistance, that's what a market is.

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Using data from Sunday (rather than Friday) for the pivots as it was a reasonable sized candle and the market seems to be respecting the levels. Dow sitting atop the pivot and looks to have it well in control. Dax powered straight up to R1 on the London open, the next target is Friday's high and daily chart resistance level 11989 (orange) then round number and R2 12008.

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Edited by Caseynotes

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Following on from this morning's post Dax  took out 11989 and just missed R2 before falling back to R1. Dow made a stab for R1 but missed though remains above the pivot, US market closed today so may be a quite afternoon ahead.

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Dax tags R2 on the European open, Dow already past R1 having been climbing steadily since 2am.

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Only a complete numpty (or someone who knows which way they're going to go, like Donald Trump) trades the indices just now ... up and down and up and down ... why lose money?

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If you can chart read and find the right levels you can see ahead, from this mornings post price pushed through R2 for Dax and R1 for Dow, but Dow has been held up at the H4 chart resistance level (blue dotted line) and as Dax is often well correlated to Dow (which is why I post them side by side) Dax is held up as well.

So we await to see if the buyers or sellers are victorious at 26365 Dow.

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Waiting for the London open and both are just checking support, Dax at R1 while Dow just below R2 at the Daily chart resistance level 26550 (orange).

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M15 charts and Dax has got itself caught in a coil while Dow grinds back up having found support at 26500.

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Good beat on US non-manu PMI, 56.4 over 54 expected, Dow up to R3 and Dax making a move towards R1

H1 charts;

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Go on my son.  I've got a lot of losses to make up for 🤓

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Some really filthy chop on the Dax yesterday just couldn't make it's mind while Dow just cruised on ahead, could be concern on UK leaving on a no-deal and/or over EU GDP figures today at 10am q/q 0.2%, y/y 1.1% expected but might be optimistic.

Both starting over the pivot this morning so after a test of support will be looking for resistance targets above then all stop for the US NFP at 1:30pm.

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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Some really filthy chop on the Dax yesterday just couldn't make it's mind while Dow just cruised on ahead

Haha, just hate that filthy chop :P🙈

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Haha, just hate that filthy chop :P🙈

I know, it was just directionless mince the whole day, the outage came as something of a relief 😡

  • Great! 1

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Ascending Triangle Pattern spotted on Dow 1H chart

 

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Traders taking the Dow right up to yesterday's high before the NFP is very bullish, numbers out in 15 min.

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Aaaaaaand ... back down we go.

Gold shooting baaaack up again.

Manic depression baby!

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Aaaaaaand ... back down we go.

Gold shooting baaaack up again.

Manic depression baby!

stay tuned, still digesting, there is an awful lot of data in the report so not unusual to be a mixed bag, the headline number was down but the average hourly earnings was a beat 0.4% when 0.3 expected, still no real move in either direction in Dow yet.

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Looking to climb higher though may see a check of support first. The big problem for indices this week is the Fed rate decision Wednesday next week, the expectation is for a rate cut but will they really do that if the indices are making new highs, or to put it another way is the expectation of a cut enough to push into ATH's. 

H1 charts;

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Both have pushed down through the pivot looking for support, the long, med and short term are all bullish so not anticipating a deep correction and there are plenty of levels where buyers might step in. As in the indices thread we may be due a short period of consolidation so thinking more range play than trend ride until the picture becomes clearer. 

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Dax continues to make steady gains Dow was more cautious yesterday but both start above the pivot on the London open having already tagged R1. As is often the case may check for support before attempting higher.

H1 charts;

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27000 is a psychological level for the Dow, so I expect to see some resistance at this level, Opportunity for a quick scalp/swing, if you guys are into these kind of things..

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6 minutes ago, tehka said:

27000 is a psychological level for the Dow, so I expect to see some resistance at this level, Opportunity for a quick scalp/swing, if you guys are into these kind of things..

yes, around that level was the early July high resistance and then provided support once broken all through the rest of July.

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4 hours ago, dmedin said:

Apropos of Trump making the Chinese 'play by the rules' ROFL, here is Sh!t for brains trampling over the Fed's supposed neutrality yet again.

If the Donald wasn't a billionaire he wouldn't get away with any of this.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-zero-negative-interest-105815945.html

 

Yes, lower the interest rates below zero, and refinance loans. That man makes me laugh..  ..out loud sometimes. The bank refused me when I asked for that deal.

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ok that's interesting - a big rally into the close on Dow, a sure sign of real bull strength.

Dow daily and H1 charts;

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    • Hey @dmedin, our analysts did a piece on this yesterday you might be interested in.  https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/what-will-happen-to-the-premier-oil-share-price-after-the-electi-191210
    • They are expecting a good Christmas and will be opening a new robotic 🤖 warehouse in 2021.  So it looks good for a wee long.  🐮
    • When looking at these markets and the trading behaviour of the average retail trader it seems to me that many don't really understand the market they are trading, there are also psychological factors that influence decision making to the detriment of trading success. If you are not confident in your understanding of the market then you are solely dependent on technical analysis but TA is not a given, it can only play out if assisted by fundamental and macro factors, those factors currently point to bull continuation. So the US major indices are routinely hitting new all time highs, the retail trader thinks they need to sell the high in order to buy back lower (buy low sell high right) so the retail trader (the crowd) are constantly trying to pick the tops (and patting themselves on the back thinking they are being contrarian). The positioning data of IG clients tell us this is exactly what's happening. Every time price goes higher the sell position ratio increases, when price is falling in a down trend the buy position ratios go higher. So clearly this is all wrong, when price is continually rising you need to buy high and sell higher. You buy breakouts or pullbacks, you should not be looking to sell a bull trending market at all. So why do they do it? The market is too high (no it's not), it must be the bears turn (wait and see first), but I need to sell the highs, the saying says so (no, you're not an investor), the chart is looking 'toppy' (just no), the TA is pointing down (doesn't matter without fundy and macro assist). An understand of a market comes with experience, until it does stick with the basics and look for longs in an uptrend, don't try to second guess the market and end up constantly fighting against it.
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