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Dax & Dow


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Early check for support following a big run up into yesterday's close and continuing on upbeat trade war news overnight. The Dow ATH is the purple monthly chart resistance level just overhead so the bulls will be wary, they know next week's expected rate cut is fully priced but Powell is capable of wrong footing them yet again. I suspect if the ATH is broken it will be by drifting price action with one eye on retreat rather than a full rush dam burst.

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

@Caseynotes You've done a good thing by reminding us to overlook the naysayers and look at the underlining up trend in the Wall Street index.  Thank you.

seen it before at every hint of a downturn and it drags the unwary down, I presume one day they will be right and you'll never hear the end of it but it's worth stepping back and having a think before jumping in short when, off the top of my head, it's +13% annually since 1950.

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Both starting below the pivot (Friday's OHLC) and currently looking to retest, if bears can keep control of the pivot will be looking then for a retest of the recent low but if the bulls can take control will be looking for a retest of the recent highs. Dax with added volume profile just for the look of the thing.

H1 charts;

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2 hours ago, tehka said:

I wonder are we going into a repeat of July 2019 where Dow goes range bound between 27000 and 27300?

History repeats itself?

Likely to be caution until the Fed mtg Wednesday, everyone (the big guys) are already all in but have their finger poised over the sell button til confirmed just in case..

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20 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

"Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut."

 

https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

come down because of oil but now Saudi saying oil back on line expectations will reverse back up, 22 hours and counting ta-da.

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Dax and Dow starting out just over the pivot so awaiting clearer sign of direction.

Below is a look at yesterday's Dax on a 4 point bar Renko chart; the day started below the pivot (orange) and a failed attempt to break up through on the London open, that was followed by two further rejections before a break down through S1 (red), then a retest and fail leading to a further break down not quite reaching S2. The afternoon saw a complete retrace of the morning's move back up to the pivot.

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5 minutes ago, tehka said:

Have decided to stay away for the next 11 hours or so. Too much risk ahead of interest rate decision unless I want to take a 50-50 chance

Fairly slow going so far and probably likely to remain so, even inspite of the oil move I suspect a rate cut is still fairly well already priced in so may be more of a chance for a move to the downside rather than up, and be wary of the presser, price can swing on every sentence, especially with Powell who has a reputation for putting his foot in it. 

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Dax starting just under the pivot and at yesterday's point of control on the volume profile indicator (red bar, highest volume for the day was put through at this level). Dow starts above the pivot after the drive up in the last hour of the US session yesterday. Will be looking for Dow to test the highs and for Dax to follow.

Have added Ftse below which may react to the UK interest rate data today at 12:00, is starting out well below the pivot but just above daily chart support around S1.

H1 charts;

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