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Early check for support following a big run up into yesterday's close and continuing on upbeat trade war news overnight. The Dow ATH is the purple monthly chart resistance level just overhead so the bulls will be wary, they know next week's expected rate cut is fully priced but Powell is capable of wrong footing them yet again. I suspect if the ATH is broken it will be by drifting price action with one eye on retreat rather than a full rush dam burst.

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The consensus is for an ECB rate cut today (as posted in the daily dashboard thread) from -0.4% to -0.5% but if that doesn't happen the Dow will be badly knocked as well as Dax, it will rattle bullish confidence in the expected cut by the Fed next week.

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@Caseynotes You've done a good thing by reminding us to overlook the naysayers and look at the underlining up trend in the Wall Street index.  Thank you.

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

@Caseynotes You've done a good thing by reminding us to overlook the naysayers and look at the underlining up trend in the Wall Street index.  Thank you.

seen it before at every hint of a downturn and it drags the unwary down, I presume one day they will be right and you'll never hear the end of it but it's worth stepping back and having a think before jumping in short when, off the top of my head, it's +13% annually since 1950.

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20 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I presume one day they will be right and you'll never hear the end of it 

:D

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Another example of the pivots being tagged to the tick on Dax as post ECB dives to S1 then rallies to R2.

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Following on from this mornings post Dax rechecked the pivot on the European open then went on to test yesterday's high and then on to R1 while Dow is currently testing yesterday's high.

H1 charts;

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A triple top formation is formed on Dow 1H chart. It may find support at 20EMA though

Edited by tehka

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32 minutes ago, tehka said:

A triple top formation is formed on Dow 1H chart. It may find support at 20EMA though

It's a tricky one that as the neckline is all over the place and price would need to break down through S1 but it looks like the the bulls were waiting at the pivot point.

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Both starting below the pivot (Friday's OHLC) and currently looking to retest, if bears can keep control of the pivot will be looking then for a retest of the recent low but if the bulls can take control will be looking for a retest of the recent highs. Dax with added volume profile just for the look of the thing.

H1 charts;

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An inverted pinbar may be about to be formed on the 1H chart after bouncing off the 20 EMA.

This could be a bearish reversal back to 27000

Edited by tehka
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I wonder are we going into a repeat of July 2019 where Dow goes range bound between 27000 and 27300?

History repeats itself?

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2 hours ago, tehka said:

I wonder are we going into a repeat of July 2019 where Dow goes range bound between 27000 and 27300?

History repeats itself?

Likely to be caution until the Fed mtg Wednesday, everyone (the big guys) are already all in but have their finger poised over the sell button til confirmed just in case..

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Dax has followed Dow under the pivot, Dow currently taking a look at S1 around yesterday's low, will need to wait and see if we get rejection here and a retest of the pivot or a push through onto S2, either way Dax is likely to follow.

H1 charts;

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"Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut."

 

https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

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20 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

"Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut."

 

https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

come down because of oil but now Saudi saying oil back on line expectations will reverse back up, 22 hours and counting ta-da.

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Dow looking to break out up over the pivot on the US close having been restricted all day is very bullish.

H1 charts; 

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Edited by Caseynotes

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Dax and Dow starting out just over the pivot so awaiting clearer sign of direction.

Below is a look at yesterday's Dax on a 4 point bar Renko chart; the day started below the pivot (orange) and a failed attempt to break up through on the London open, that was followed by two further rejections before a break down through S1 (red), then a retest and fail leading to a further break down not quite reaching S2. The afternoon saw a complete retrace of the morning's move back up to the pivot.

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Have decided to stay away for the next 11 hours or so. Too much risk ahead of interest rate decision unless I want to take a 50-50 chance

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5 minutes ago, tehka said:

Have decided to stay away for the next 11 hours or so. Too much risk ahead of interest rate decision unless I want to take a 50-50 chance

Fairly slow going so far and probably likely to remain so, even inspite of the oil move I suspect a rate cut is still fairly well already priced in so may be more of a chance for a move to the downside rather than up, and be wary of the presser, price can swing on every sentence, especially with Powell who has a reputation for putting his foot in it. 

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Dax starting just under the pivot and at yesterday's point of control on the volume profile indicator (red bar, highest volume for the day was put through at this level). Dow starts above the pivot after the drive up in the last hour of the US session yesterday. Will be looking for Dow to test the highs and for Dax to follow.

Have added Ftse below which may react to the UK interest rate data today at 12:00, is starting out well below the pivot but just above daily chart support around S1.

H1 charts;

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Dax up from S1 on the open, pause at the pivot (orange) then on to just shy of R1 before breaking back down to the pivot for a retest.

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Dax and Dow breaking up over yesterday's high 30 min before the US open and the Dow's 'all time high' just over head (27401 monthly chart resistance purple).

H1 charts;

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Bulls will have to overcome that triple top resistance thing at 27300 first. But coming in so strongly, who knows they might actually succeed this time...

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Dax starting out above the pivot while Dow starts below, may take a little while to get back in step and decide on direction. Medium and long term remains bullish while short term is neutral.

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Dax bouncing between the pivot and H4 chart resistance, ranging and balanced, no overall direction.

M5 chart;

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Both starting below the pivot (Friday's data) so may see a check of support first, Dow with strong support at 26890. Not much movement on the European open so waiting for the London open, the side that controls the pivot controls direction.

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Dow starting well above the daily pivot while Dax sit on it's pivot. Dow looking well supported and may try to push on up from here rather than checking support first, expecting Dax to follow.

H1 charts;

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