Dax & Dow

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Dax trapped by the pivot today and unable to join Dow above, now both checking for support.

M30 charts;

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Both rallied to the pivot overnight and now rechecking support. Dax back at the overnight low and may find support there again otherwise it's onto S1.

M30 charts;

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Dax and Dow just pausing at yesterday's high having bounced up off the pivot on the open. For Dax R1 just ahead then Tuesday's point of control at 12345.

The profile is volume rather than market so the red bar (POC) is the level at which most volume was traded rather than the level where most time was spent, the blue bars are high volume nodes.

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Dow heads down towards the pivot looking for support on the US open but Dax holds on just below R1. 

[tehka 16]

I observe what appears to me like a Descending Triangle Pattern in the Dow daily chart. As the range get smaller and smaller it will eventually break out, I believe to the downside. That support level at 26750 would be the level to watch put for. I believe that this may happen in the next few trading days 

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Dax straight up to 12345 which was a big sell volume node from Tuesday mentioned a few posts up. Both Dax and Dow are above the pivot with Dow retesting now. 

[Caseynotes 1,394]

16 hours ago, tehka said:

I observe what appears to me like a Descending Triangle Pattern in the Dow daily chart. As the range get smaller and smaller it will eventually break out, I believe to the downside. That support level at 26750 would be the level to watch put for. I believe that this may happen in the next few trading days 

I'm always a bit skeptical about patterns and tend to look at them from the other way round because random patterns turn up all the time. So rather than see a pattern and then try to find context and significance I would prefer to already have context and then see the chart pattern or candle pattern or indicator signal confirming it because on their own none of these are worth betting on.

The weekly Dow is bullish, the US GDP is 2%, Trump hasn't upped the stakes in the trade war (yet). On the down side the world economy continues to slow though at a fairly gentle pace and is tied directly to the trade war so currently (now) the context is bullish and if I saw a pattern that supported that, great. If Trump suddenly upped the trade war stakes then there would be a good chance of a descending triangle pattern playing out, great.

 

 

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Good follow through after the initial thrust up on market open for both Dax and Dow, pulling back now in anticipation of the US open though being Friday not expecting fireworks this afternoon. US Durable Goods up 0.5% over the 0.2% expected.

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Slow start to the week, Dow trying to continue to work up from key support at 26714 towards Friday's high at 27013.

Dax closing in on daily chart resistance at 12405 (also the Friday high).

M30 charts;

[dmedin 227]

Wall Street is dipping.

[Caseynotes 1,394]

5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Wall Street is dipping.

But Dax not following, Dow checking for support having been unable to push up through 26940, not really a strong bearish move.

M30 chart;

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Dax pushed up to weekly chart resistance at 12495 and through R1 before pulling back to the pivot while Dow pushed through R1 before pulling back to settle mid way between the pivot and R1.

Plenty of Fed speak this afternoon as well as US PMIs at 3pm.

M30 charts;

[tehka 16]

A breakdown of support just happened on Dow. Might even go as low as 25950 at 50 EMA on the weekly chart.

I hope everyone was short

Edited October 1 by tehka
Typo

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Dow looking to hold at S1, same for Dax which coincides with the daily chart support level 12142

M30 charts;

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Dax looking to continue upward after initially checking the pivot on the London open.

M30 charts.

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Both starting above the pivot so looking for long opportunities, Dow targeting R1 (26610) and yesterday's high (26657).

Dax already tagged R1 on the European open has since pulled back.

M30 charts; 

[Caseynotes 1,394]

China threatens retaliation over the US putting trade restrictions on 28 Chinese firms pushes Dax down through the pivot (orange), bulls trying to regain.

M5 chart; 

[EdwardP 1]

Hi - what app do you use here ?

[Caseynotes 1,394]

10 minutes ago, EdwardP said:

Hi - what app do you use here ?

It's the MT4 platform with daily pivot support and resistance levels (orange, green and red) plus there is a volume profile overlay running left to right which is the grey lines with the high volume nodes in blue and the current max volume node in dark pink.

[Caseynotes 1,394]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

It's the MT4 platform with daily pivot support and resistance levels (orange, green and red) plus there is a volume profile overlay running left to right which is the grey lines with the high volume nodes in blue and the current max volume node in dark pink.

Updated Dax M15 chart;

[EdwardP 1]

I take it you trade manually, not algorithmically

[Caseynotes 1,394]

2 minutes ago, EdwardP said:

I take it you trade manually, not algorithmically

yeah. I'm looking for dips between levels or breakouts/breakdowns from levels on the lower time frame charts.

[EdwardP 1]

So, you sell R1,2,3 and buy S1,2,3 with TP at the other end, and SL 1-2 or 2-3 and you keep positions overnight ...

[Caseynotes 1,394]

1 hour ago, EdwardP said:

So, you sell R1,2,3 and buy S1,2,3 with TP at the other end, and SL 1-2 or 2-3 and you keep positions overnight ...

not as simple or as regimented as that, the next level could well be a TP as I expect some kind of resistance at each level and so wait to see which side takes control then look to climb aboard.

[cryptotrader 132]

question is as mid channel are we going down or up

looks to be down leading into china talks

[Caseynotes 1,394]

8 minutes ago, cryptotrader said:

question is as mid channel are we going down or up

looks to be down leading into china talks

Trump stirs it up again;

[cryptotrader 132]

So the ol 'Trump says something aggressive but doesn't mean it and that'll be redacted pretty soon when it all kicks off".

Long DOW with a long ol stop on it.

[Caseynotes 1,394]

Both starting out below the pivot and looking for support though as ever on the London open may see an initial test in the opposite direction.

A lot of indecision and very long tailed doji's seen in Dow yesterday at the peak volume node (dark pink) which anchors today's pivot point around 26300.

[EdwardP 1]

100 pnt spike - this will wake up half of the City

[Caseynotes 1,394]

2 minutes ago, EdwardP said:

100 pnt spike - this will wake up half of the City

yes, instead of retaliating against yesterday's news China just signaled they were open to making at least a partial trade deal with the US.