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more from China, now offering to buy extra 10 Bln worth of US goods to ease trade war.

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Dax and Dow continue the climb back up, Dow resting at R1 with chart resistance ahead at 26364 and 26423.

Dow has chart resistance and R1 overhead at 12131.

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Dax tags R2 after a brief pause at R1 while Dow heads on to R1 after pushing through yesterday's high.

M30 charts;.

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I am net short and pessimistic on DOW. In my opinion, this rally should be seen as an opportunity to short DOW .

 

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Dow checking support, may find it at 26761. Dax following.

M30 charts;

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On 11/10/2019 at 12:22, T19 said:

I am net short and pessimistic on DOW. In my opinion, this rally should be seen as an opportunity to short DOW .

 

Could turn out that way but difficult to know with any degree of certainty how the trade talks will pan out, seems to be real progress this time round. Retail have been increasingly short all week as price has continued to rise.

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Dow pauses at R1 and Dax settles mid way between R1 and R2. Both looking for further continuation to the up side.

M30 charts;

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Dax perched on the pivot and looking higher, Dow in a similar position. A push up on the European open this morning but may see a check of support on the London open before attempt to check yesterday's highs.

H1 charts;

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Dax moving up to test yesterday's highs, Dow powers up to the pivot, if Dow can break the pivot Dax should see R1

H1 charts;

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Dow bulls trying to secure the pivot while Dax also struggling to make headway.

H1 charts;

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Half the Dow 30 companies are reporting earnings this week including Boeing, Cat and Microsoft on Wednesday. 

Adding the weekly calendar here, see below.

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Dow checking support on the open having tagged R1 early morning while Dax keen to get on with it.

If support is found above the pivot will be expecting a retest of R1 for Dow  and a rally to R1 for Dax.

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Dax motors on up to R1 with a brief pause at the pivot while Dow saunters up from S1. Dax has run into yesterday's resistance so likely to wait here and watch Dow.

H1 charts;

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First a miss from Cat and then a slight beat from Boeing though with a reduced production outlook sees Dow down then climbing back up from S2.

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Dax on a bit of a round trip taking off to visit R1 then back down to resistance turned support 12817 after a slight miss on the Ger PMIs. Should steady now and wait for Draghi's last ECB rate decision and presser, not likely to drop a bomb for Lagarde who doesn't mind a bit of QE herself. 

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Both Dax and Dow have pushed strongly up off the Pivot so R1 is the initial target though we often see a check of support on the London open. A break below the Pivot changes the targets to S1.

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Dax and Dow nudging resistance coming up to the London open, will often check support initially before attempting to push higher.

Weekly charts below and it's been a strong month for Dax as Dow keeps looking for an excuse to break the high.

The big day is Wednesday with the FOMC rate decision and Apple and FB earnings report. 

H1 and weekly charts;

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Dow starting out atop the pivot while Dax just below, the overall trend remains bullish but as ever may see an initial probe to confirm support before an attempt to test resistance.

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Dax pushing up to the pivot on the European open, Dow holding just below the pivot. Likely to be fairly lite while waiting for the big drivers (FOMC and Earnings) this evening. If we see a Dow capture of the pivot could see follow up and an attempt at yesterday's high around R1 but a check of support to see how firm the base is seems more likely.

H1 charts;

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Both starting above the pivot, may check support before testing higher. With US earnings good and the rate cut out of the way, the ADP nfp a beat bodes well for tomorrows NFP and US GDP a beat at 1.9% would expect continuation higher.

H1 charts;

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Donald Trump obviously not happy with yesterday's Fed decision as 'trade worries resurface' today ....

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5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Donald Trump obviously not happy with yesterday's Fed decision as 'trade worries resurface' today ....

It was China expressing doubt that a trade deal would ever be reached with Trump in the White House and that they want all tariffs removed before new talks but that won't happen, US economy is doing well while China's production figure continue down. 

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DAX looks like it is going in for a pullback.

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Well ... viewed in the weekly light, it isn't that bad.  Just a bit of indecision between Fibos.  :)

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17 hours ago, dmedin said:

DAX looks like it is going in for a pullback.

Pullback maybe but what is a pullback, it's profit taking with a countertrend attempt to reverse that peters out. Those three candles don't look like that, maybe some profit taking on the first red but the second pushed down hard and then was bought straight back up and the same on the third. The long wicks and small bodies would indicate to me buyer strength rather than seller strength. So it looks more like profit taking and a buyer pause followed by 2 attempts to reverse both of which ran into strong buying.

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Both pushed down on the European open though both remain above the Pivot so if can find support above will be looking for further upside gains. If the bulls lose the pivot then looking to the short side.

H1 charts;

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    • Some excuse is needed for a pullback ...
    • The spike down in indices in the last hour was the same ol' trade war news, China stating they are less optimistic than the US and feel they have been mislead by recent talks where they felt they had agreement over a rollback of tariffs that the US now say is not the case. After 18 months of this you should be use to it by now. 
    • Dax, Nikkei and FTSE100 remain below recent (past 2 weeks) turning points and we have seen an interesting recent bearish candle in play on US large caps, a potential spike and retrace back down, which could signal rally exhaustion.  In the case of the Dow and Nasdaq this occurred with an overshoot of the 4H chart rally channel and in the case of the Nasdaq also the Daily and Monthly long term resistance trend lines (overshoot and quick retrace being a particular signal of an exhaustion phase).  In the case of the SP500 this has occurred with a hit right on the Daily resistance trend line and rejection, so far at least.  As I have mentioned before: with volume relatively weak and seemingly in a down trend; and with COT net long positions weak and weakening (not what one would expect of a breakout rally); and with Gold/Silver rallying; and with NMD at the turn points on all markets and as USDJPY has also taken a similar bearish hit; the odds of a bearish phase are good and the risk reward is decent. I am already Short Dax and FTSE100 off the previous turns but money where my mouth is this time on SP500, as the exposure is tiny, I am Short off the hit and turn on the daily trend line with tight stops just above.  
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