Jump to content

Dax & Dow

Recommended Posts

Dow tagged it's ATH overnight (= monthly chart resistance level purple) and has since just pulled back slightly, Dax is following. Good news data last week shows the US economy remains strong with mostly good earnings reported as well as emerging markets outlook improving bodes well for Dow, and where the Dow leads others tend to follow.

image.thumb.png.8a701e014af4774f50354e2c6dfb3171.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Flags formed after a strong day yesterday, support seen at the daily pivot so looking for a break past yesterday's high and an attack on R1.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.5c97bb9ca7ead20fc1a94467571462e5.png

Share this post


Link to post

Little change so far, both remain in a bull flag. US non-manu PMI at 3pm 53.5 expected (see PMI chart).

image.thumb.png.f47c9cea59808a78f0fb366ed3adf87a.png

image.thumb.png.5669f216f5c73e06a97dfa3ac0bcf7fe.png

Share this post


Link to post

Still within the bull flag, Dax raced up to tag R1 on the London open while Dow looks at the daily pivot. Looking for a break of the range top and continuation.

image.thumb.png.52b6b17f751b6598e46e1ee6563ce1f7.png

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Dax and Dow maintaining the bull flag though Dax pushed up to tag R2 after the check of support following the London open for both Dax and Dow. Now following the US open and another test of support so will be looking for a test of resistance next.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.6f835b0116e0e7b6e5d484ec69ed49b4.png

Share this post


Link to post

Both remain in a bull flag. Interesting lesson here. Why isn't price going higher? Bulls have driven price up but at the moment see no reason to buy the high until there is new stimulus, price drops down to the bottom of the tight flag range, bulls see that as a buy the low opportunity. Not much of a low you say but as far as the bulls are concerned it's as low as they are going to get as things stand. Bulls are clearly in control and it would need real bad news to make them cover and run. You don't need technical analysis to see this, in fact covering the chart in TA is just going to obscure the picture and mislead, or even worse, cover the chart in TA in an attempt to bolster your bias for a move in the opposite direction. TA is just an indicator and market movers will use it or ignore it as they choose, same as any other indicator.

image.thumb.png.bda27daf17872e4af9f34f93b6467b1e.png

Share this post


Link to post
2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

cover the chart in TA in an attempt to bolster your bias for a move in the opposite direction

ūüėĀ

Share this post


Link to post

wtf, I was wondering why my alarms were going mad >

image.thumb.png.d3392cb67da57adbab37c30ea60372d6.png

 

Michael Hewson 

@mhewson_CMC

China Ministry - China and US have agreed to lift tariffs as deal progresses. Amount of tariff relief in phase 1 depends on content.. Equity futures rising.

7:26am · 7 Nov 2019 · TweetDeck

  • Like 1
  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Pullback overnight to the new daily pivot, if supported here will be looking for a retest of yesterday's highs. Not much on the calendar today but always the possibility of breaking trade deal news.

image.thumb.png.2bc32ad104607fe8f02e63f17941175f.png

Share this post


Link to post

Early push through up to R1 for Dow, Dax follows. Ger econ sentiment today though still negative is expected to show signs of recovery and Trump speaks on the economy at 5pm may impact the markets today.

image.thumb.png.055967c0498487a33db03d1f8bef4f5b.png

Share this post


Link to post

A tag on the highs just before London cash close yesterday and then a pullback to mid range. Both below the daily pivot this morning so would expect to see an attempt on the pivot on the London open, success or failure will determine either R1 or S1 as the next target.

image.thumb.png.1c3994a70e12b138c0ce6166bd25e729.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Dax and Dow looking to bounce up off S2 meanwhile more good news as EU industrial production m/m stays positive in spite of forecast to decrease 0.2%.

image.thumb.png.49cc4e3bc8daf6327f8bd1dd30ffc800.png

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Dow starting above the pivot while Dax starts below, usually see Dax fall into line and follow Dow when this happens. On the longer term time frames both are at or near their highs so expecting continuation until PA proves otherwise.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.28272baa7b6413651f9019b2a00273a5.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dow has ramped itself up over R1 and looks content to perch there awhile, Dow attempting to follow. Will see on the London open if there truly is support at R1 or if needs to check lower. US retail sales at 1:30 otherwise not much on the calendar but as it's a Friday probably expecting caution rather than a further push to the upside.

image.thumb.png.ec5e7ec360add8080a4e5d2b170e9c7a.png

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Dow just tagged it's all time high again just for the sheer fun of it and just to show it can. Been a disappointing week for 'the crowd', every morning hoping for the market to roll over and every evening having to choke on yet another ATH. But just as well really as someone has to provide the other side of the market. 

image.thumb.png.f155182ed3a4bd833d16e6a42a7354c9.png

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

I did some spring cleaning and I have three timeframes for the S&P500, Nikkei225 and Dax on my main monitor. It is partly because of this.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/post_of_the_day/2011/03/31/How_Many_Candles_Should_be_Viewed_on_a_Chart.html

Well this is what the Nikkei225 looks like with a yearly R1 pivot where the daily R1 pivot is and the Flash Manufacturing PMI in at 48.6.

JPN225H1.jpg

JPN225M15.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post

Dax attempted to break higher on the London open off the weekly pivot point but Dow stayed behind and looks content to wait for the US open.

H1 charts; 

image.thumb.png.a17cc58ed8358e4ef62a50196e5531af.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dow drops down to check support after yesterday's highs and finds it at the daily pivot level, Dax follows. Dow looking to bounce.

H1 charts;

image.thumb.png.7f155191c96d0dc50e9207b58a539b82.png

Share this post


Link to post

In an uptrend the initial play at the start of the day is more often than not for a check to see where support is, Dax thinks Dow has found it at 28050 and has started back up to find resistance. We need to keep an eye on Dow to make sure this is the case while watching Dax head back to the daily pivot.

image.thumb.png.5df07fe983914d7392c55b6d7fa97e0c.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

@Caseynotes No I was just enthusiastic about the bounce off support.  There was a fairly big drop on the hourly chart last night.  :D

Share this post


Link to post
3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

@Caseynotes No I was just enthusiastic about the bounce off support.  There was a fairly big drop on the hourly chart last night.  :D

yes, on news re; China, the pattern of late has been for Dow to find support in London session before girding it's loins for a march onward in the US session but can't really expect too much today¬†ūü•≥

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Caseynotes , you may be right about the news, but the drop started at 8 am Tokyo time.

Share this post


Link to post
15 hours ago, AndrewS said:

Caseynotes , you may be right about the news, but the drop started at 8 am Tokyo time.

that's right @AndrewS, it wasn't Trump signing the bill that made to markets react it was the high level of vitriolic response from the Chinese and threats issued by a number of high ranking officials. They are convinced it's a Trump ploy to introduce new leverage into the trade talks but the bill was in fact introduced by the democrats and was actually a ploy to embarrass Trump. The Chinese don't understand 2 party politics.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      11,962
    • Total Posts
      60,586
    • Total Members
      80,585
    Newest Member
    92ts11
    Joined 12/08/20 16:43
  • Posts

    • If in the UK you can buy physical silver (coins or bars) from the royal mint or royal mint authorised dealers. Just search the internet. You probably want to buy whatever is captial gains tax exempt (I think silver britannias are). Shop around for the best price and also be careful about VAT as I think you may have to pay that on some purchases and not on others . Of course when you buy physical silver in UK as an investment you also have to consider what GBP/ USD is up to as any change in¬† exchange rate in future will affect your return (as silver is priced in USD). If you don't want physical then you could buy shares in a silver ETF (eg. SSLN) which is¬† backed by physical metal or if you want to spread bet it you could buy spot silver. It all depends why you want to buy it. If just as an investment then you get a better return buying etf or spread betting (easier to cash in when you want to and potentially less hassles with tax). If you are worried the banking system will freeze up and you can't get money out at some point in the future ( possibly not likely but you can never rule it out) then it's physical - stored outside the banking system either with a company or stored somewhere by yourself. I'm not an expert on this but have just read a bit about it lately as lots of articles suggesting silver will go higher over the next months / year. ¬†
    • I don't know. But there is good profit taking.
    • Bad fundamentals?
×
×