Dax & Dow

[Caseynotes]

ok, lets call the session low for Dow is the value area low 26400 and so the target atr high is at 26525 and Dax the low is also the value area low at 12300 and with the target atr already beaten will be looking instead for R1 and yesterday's point of control at 12390.

Once again, if it all goes wrong then maybe if I keep doing it long enough it will all average out 😅

[Caseynotes]

Dax made the target (12390) quite comfortably but Dow got hung up the pivot and couldn't break through and just now survived a fierce push down to retest 26400, looks to being bought back up from that level again so maybe another try on the pivot to follow.

[Caseynotes]

On the US open Dow bounces up off the recent low 26345 having pushed it's way down through 26400, should next have another try for the pivot at 26481.

Dax moving back up to R1 having spent the last couple of hours resting on it's daily pivot and point of control (12345).

[Caseynotes]

Dax like Ftse has taken off early but lets wait and see.

LT bull, MT neutral, ST bear/neutral. The daily ATR is 94 points.

The 30 min chart looks to have a session low at 12310 and we would be looking at a target around 12400 (R1) but will wait for 1 hour after London open to confirm.

[Guest Ironman100]

(Caseynotes)

I agree good point!

[Caseynotes]

Similar situation as just described in the Ftse thread, Dax already well on the way to the proposed target from this morning and a diminishing RR. Perhaps I should also incorporate a breakout rule to add for these situations? After all, I'm just making it up as I go along. Thoughts anyone.

[Caseynotes]

NFP coming up, both charts looking like wanting to go higher, this 12400 is a big level for Dax and if can get a break to the upside could see a run to R2 around 12475. Dow needs to break the green dotted hourly resistance level to try for yesterday's point of control the red dash at 26415 then yesterday's high at 26481.

[Caseynotes]

The NFP data was actually mixed, though the jobs increase number was good the just as important Average Hourly Earnings increase was less than expected.

Dow stalled at R1 while Dax stalled before R2 and Ftse just missed R2. Being Friday afternoon difficult to say where to from here.

[Caseynotes]

So just to round today off, the morning call was good but waiting for the hour after London open meant missing a large move but I still placed the option anyway (demo) when price was below R1, so the buy call at strike at £10/point was 13s so the max possible loss was £130, it was my intention to close at end of day (which would have been pnl neutral) but I forgot.

ps, does anyone know how to close an option after market close?

[Caseynotes]

Dow may have bottomed out at 25955 and there is the possibility of initial market over reaction and a subsequent attempt to fill the gap. Dow currently sitting at 26020 and a move higher should attempt a test of 26175 while tested support is at 25955.

Dax still looking for support.

[Caseynotes]

This one is more difficult, it could be that both the high and low are already in. Dax has put in a strong London open (on a UK bank holiday) M30 bar and what looks like the session low at 12155 but found resistance at the already tested 12246. So, because there is a gun to the head am looking to target higher at 12350 nearly 2x ATR, but given that price just come down from there seems reasonable if the big move down was an over reaction.

The buy call on demo was at 3 for £10/point.

LT bull, MT neutral, ST bear, Daily ATR is 110 points.

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax making hard work of it with the UK on holiday, those Europeans are useless on their own 🙂  

Dax went back down to take another look at the low after the strong open but has since been making it's way back up. Dependent on the US session now to get a lift up above 12246. 

[Caseynotes]

Today's option worked out well in the end, closed before market close for 3R, even though missed the big rally of the last ten minutes. 

Both having got above the Daily chart resistance level (orange) should reach higher.

[Caseynotes]

Dow continuing on to fill the gap with less than an hour to go in the US session, Dax struggling a bit out of hours but making good progress to the pivot. This is a strong bull day and bodes well for the rest of the week. 

[Caseynotes]

Dax Option;

LT bull, MT neutral, Current bull. Daily ATR 116 points.

News; 10:00 EU econ forecast.

Possible LOD 12249.

T1 12353. T2 12373 (R1). T3 12414 (ATR)

Buy Call  @strike (12310) for 3 @£10/point - risk £30. Close out trade before market close at 4:30 pm.

Summary of yesterday; Buy call yesterday spent nearly the entire day out of the money til about an hour before close when price took off, closed out at plus 3R  (3x risk).

Reminder that this is on demo and that I've not traded options before and am still waiting for someone to tell me I'm doing it all wrong (which I may well be as the book I've ordered on options trading still hasn't arrived yet ) 😧

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Dow pushes down through support towards S1, currently at 26120, Dax trips past S1 currently at 12120.

[Caseynotes]

As if things weren't bad enough now my own demo platform has started mocking me. I obviously expected the option trade yesterday to be minus £30 on start up this morning and so the headline was but I find that the demo has put it's own trade on without any action from me.

 

[Caseynotes]

On the Eur open Dax looks to be trying to continue the pullback rally with the daily pivot a target. Dow visited it's own pivot overnight and wasn't too impressed but has settled at Monday's point of control. Bit worried it might be a balance day, waiting for direction to become clear.

 

[Caseynotes]

High implied volatility levels after yesterday's big move so high prices and very balanced, not looking to take anything from there.

[WallStFoxy]

US30 Looks set to test yesterdays low.

[Caseynotes]

Indices attempting a bounce up from here, not sure why, I don't think the Chinese have just changed their mind 🙂

[Bell]

The bearish daily engulfing offers shorting opportunity in my view.

I agreed earlier with you on US that the bearish sentiment would create short squeeze.

I would now havea crack at a short on the Dax and the INDU.

[Bell]

Sorry mate wrong picture had the daily dax Bearish as well

 

[Bell]

Think we can start looking to short through an etf.

Would pyramid in - we may get a little bounce then a further breakdown.

[Caseynotes]

@Bell,  nice charts, I've always liked the look of those from Stockcharts.com, don't often see them here in the UK. Are they set in the US time zone? 

Yes, may well be setting up for a bearish move, especially if the trade talks fall flat which the indications seem to be pointing directly to though the news throughout today has been very mixed.

 

[Caseynotes]

Update of the daily chart, I was going to ask @Bell, was that why you were looking to trade an etf  because of being US based and so no contracts for difference available?

[Caseynotes]

Dow initially broke lower lead by Dax this time but  the move down looks to have stalled, very volatile PA and implied volatility on the options is around 26 making them expensive again today so no option taken.

[Caseynotes]

Tiring and frustrating, no firm control and long tails both ends of the candles, no sooner have you got in you are scrambling to cover.

[WallStFoxy]

25 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Tiring and frustrating, no firm control and long tails both ends of the candles, no sooner have you got in you are scrambling to cover.

Always feel a bit cheated when so much of the trade happened overnight, it's hard to join a rally so advanced so I'm hoping we get a repeat of Monday's trade.

[Caseynotes]

The big move coming late in the day for Dax as it follows Dow down after US open while US futures started the move down an hour before hand.