Dax & Dow

[Caseynotes]

Dax has followed Dow back up having visited S2 briefly and is now centered on the day's S1 which has become the point of control. Trade talks about to start, tomorrow likely to see even bigger moves.

[Caseynotes]

On the M30 Dow heading back up to the pivot, R1 is 26050 and S1 is 25555.

Dax stays low waiting for the Eur market open at 7am, R1 is 12200 and S1 11955.

[Caseynotes]

With Dax up 130 points between 6am and 7:30 the implied volatility on options is up around 33 so will continue to leave alone for now.

[Caseynotes]

Both Dax and Dow oscillating about their point of control which is at the same level as yesterday. Marking time waiting for new news.

[Caseynotes]

Dax back up to the high of the day while Dow back up to the pivot and the only word to come from the trade talks was that the two sides would meet again in Beijing some time in the future. The rise in tariffs for a new tranche of goods is up from 10% to 25% and we wait for China's response. 

[Caseynotes]

Not sure which way these are going to break this morning but the targets are clear.

[Caseynotes]

Break the downside for Dax, tried to bounce up off S1 but then pushed through, now stuck at the daily chart support level

[Caseynotes]

Initial slide after the weekend and the trade war news then a midday slide on the China announcement of reciprocal tariff increases. China can't have much more in the way of US imports to tariff whereas Trump has lots more. 

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow very much in step today, both held up at R2, not expecting any further news out of China in the short term, they don't have much left to impose a tariff on, and the US are going to wait 3 - 4 weeks before a possible further tightening of the screw.

[Caseynotes]

Both sitting just below the daily pivot and so that will guide as to direction today if price pushes up through. The support below looks strong and no major news expected other than Ger econ sentiment at 10 am.

[Caseynotes]

Dax's attempt to run up stalled as Dow not willing to participate but looks to be setting up for another go.

[Caseynotes]

Dax making hard work of it today but on US open Dow looks like wanting to push up dax should follow.

 

[Bell]

Sorry did not get back to you been obsessing over a position.

Reason I trade etf rather than cfd is the margin requirements.

Read the gubbins on Cfd's and did not like them.

Dax at bottom of range should get a small bounce before breakdown. Strong Bearish engulfing pattern

[Bell]

Looking at a move to 11400 for the dax. That is my key support level

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, Bell said:

Looking at a move to 11400 for the dax. That is my key support level

May do @Bell though it's got a lot of support levels to work through first.

Took an age for dax to push through 11960 today, frustrating. 

M30 with daily pivots and the daily chart with weekly pivots.

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax needs to clear 12018 for a run onto R1 at 12071.

Dow has overhead resistance at 25687 (yesterday's high) but retested support below at 25522, dow's initial direction this morning will affect dax and ftse.

M30 charts;

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax initially broke up but Dow not playing so back down for another retest of support with dax following, now attempting a bounce.

[Roadrat]

Which way do you think the Dow will move next?

[Caseynotes]

@Roadrat,  similar situ as dax, looks to have just now failed to retake the pivot so it's a retest of the immediate low 25473 which it's approaching now, if that fails it's heading down to S1 around 25337.

[Roadrat]

@CaseynotesThanks for the information

[Caseynotes]

@Roadrat

[Roadrat]

@Caseynotes the Dow did hit 25337 as you predicted and has now bounced back to 25550.  Any thoughts on where it will go next?

[Caseynotes]

Yes @Roadrat,  Dow did fall to 25337 as predicted but there is no trick to it, price must obey the rules and can't just wander about the chart at will. Once the sellers overwhelmed the pivot Price was forced to go in search of buyers, and the last place it found them was the most recent low at 25473 and if sellers over ran that level the next level down was S1 at 25337. Sometimes buyers in haste will intercept price along the way but they weren't that keen, and then the Trump announcement changed everything.

Dax and the Ger car manufacturers were the big winners with price leaping from S1 to R2.

Also posted below are the demo options trades I've been toying with lately for yesterday and today and though winners I can't say I'm taken with them, there's just no control, the first was just left till expiry and the second one I closed during the high vol but both spent most of the day in the red. I think I'll stop until I understand them better. 

[WallStFoxy]

I know it dos't make any sense based on the news, but I think the bulls are back in control. I noticed before the news broke the H4 footsie was well above the market and the DAX wanted to follow but everything was lifeless until the news broke, this combined with the support levels on equities gives me the feeling that overnight will blossom. If not then Thursday will probably go south very quick.

[Caseynotes]

No reason why the bulls shouldn't regain control, it's a hundred year bull market after all and there is a 3 - 4 week  pax on re trade wars and the US economy continues to flourish, so long the wheels keep turning there will be growth and that is always bullish.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Caseynotes

[WallStFoxy]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

No reason why the bulls shouldn't regain control, it's a hundred year bull market after all and there is a 3 - 4 week  pax on re trade wars and the US economy continues to flourish, so long the wheels keep turning there will be growth and that is always bullish.

You are so right about that. So many people have bearish personalities even after 100 years of history they find it hard to get bullish after a correction, just one reason why around 80% of trades loose their shirts dealing on the markets, but let's not get to far ahead of ourselves, I'm looking forward to Thursday morning before I start to crow about the bulls being back this could just be a correction in the bear trend, if this sells off overnight I'm a Grisly again.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Foxy

[Caseynotes]

Looking for an initial bounce up off the pivots for an eventual retest of the highs, no major news events on the calendar for today or tomorrow. 

[Caseynotes]

Having said yesterday I would stop trialing options on demo I changed my mind, how else to learn. I just closed out this mornings position as dax looks to stall at resistance, was targeting around 12130 anyway. Is there any simple way to place a target on the option to close without a complicated reverse position?

[Caseynotes]

Spoke too soon but never mind as dow and dax surge to break prior high resistance and head for R1;

 

[Bell]

Think we are in a rinse and repeat cycle till G20 and the big meeting.

May get resolution earlier. 

We could be getting ready for the blow off top before the big leg down.

Guess we cant pre-empt as that defeats TA.

On TA sometimes as you said some bits do feel like snake oil.

Probably feel that more around indicators. Patterns and Rand S levels feel more solid.