Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Dax & Dow

Recommended Posts

Dax has followed Dow back up having visited S2 briefly and is now centered on the day's S1 which has become the point of control. Trade talks about to start, tomorrow likely to see even bigger moves.

image.thumb.png.6b5401743d1a09862ff1f6702ad40dd0.png

Share this post


Link to post

On the M30 Dow heading back up to the pivot, R1 is 26050 and S1 is 25555.

Dax stays low waiting for the Eur market open at 7am, R1 is 12200 and S1 11955.

image.thumb.png.c88e6d1ef8dda7bf5e84cd79de66fc61.png

Share this post


Link to post

With Dax up 130 points between 6am and 7:30 the implied volatility on options is up around 33 so will continue to leave alone for now.

image.thumb.png.f5ae4ab53840be84b3bc744c67adedc7.png

Share this post


Link to post

Both Dax and Dow oscillating about their point of control which is at the same level as yesterday. Marking time waiting for new news.

image.thumb.png.3606e01a7c865537fdfb8078e111e814.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax back up to the high of the day while Dow back up to the pivot and the only word to come from the trade talks was that the two sides would meet again in Beijing some time in the future. The rise in tariffs for a new tranche of goods is up from 10% to 25% and we wait for China's response. 

dd1.thumb.PNG.8d5b362470ec3be5ea8029ba95f3c33b.PNG

Share this post


Link to post

Not sure which way these are going to break this morning but the targets are clear.

image.thumb.png.4913b3c5bce58e3bb20dff80188d5fec.png

Share this post


Link to post

Break the downside for Dax, tried to bounce up off S1 but then pushed through, now stuck at the daily chart support level

image.thumb.png.cffa77f261851e23de69e442c878f650.png

Share this post


Link to post

Initial slide after the weekend and the trade war news then a midday slide on the China announcement of reciprocal tariff increases. China can't have much more in the way of US imports to tariff whereas Trump has lots more. 

image.thumb.png.4130b8270cfa9882560214e4f531e326.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax and Dow very much in step today, both held up at R2, not expecting any further news out of China in the short term, they don't have much left to impose a tariff on, and the US are going to wait 3 - 4 weeks before a possible further tightening of the screw.

image.thumb.png.49f3b15c1242157ba92bd6e57cc4fa2f.png

Share this post


Link to post

Both sitting just below the daily pivot and so that will guide as to direction today if price pushes up through. The support below looks strong and no major news expected other than Ger econ sentiment at 10 am.

image.thumb.png.7e361b41b4dbed4649e1dce116e97100.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax's attempt to run up stalled as Dow not willing to participate but looks to be setting up for another go.

image.thumb.png.85ab089f6690f4331b4d08fa3e05e508.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax making hard work of it today but on US open Dow looks like wanting to push up dax should follow.

image.thumb.png.6a3fd8d24354a06bf99a95a64e0e2093.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

Sorry did not get back to you been obsessing over a position.

Reason I trade etf rather than cfd is the margin requirements.

Read the gubbins on Cfd's and did not like them.

Dax at bottom of range should get a small bounce before breakdown. Strong Bearish engulfing pattern

dax2.png

Share this post


Link to post

Looking at a move to 11400 for the dax. That is my key support level

Share this post


Link to post
1 hour ago, Bell said:

Looking at a move to 11400 for the dax. That is my key support level

May do @Bell though it's got a lot of support levels to work through first.

Took an age for dax to push through 11960 today, frustrating. 

M30 with daily pivots and the daily chart with weekly pivots.

image.thumb.png.75696fd856cf1e502a675d63d5acad09.png

 

image.thumb.png.d88c113a975444ec43a5f2cb927253aa.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dax needs to clear 12018 for a run onto R1 at 12071.

Dow has overhead resistance at 25687 (yesterday's high) but retested support below at 25522, dow's initial direction this morning will affect dax and ftse.

M30 charts;

image.thumb.png.b5667a16857e2b682eb1ff1f5eef3249.png

image.thumb.png.427c67616de79d8f8300a686ac45318d.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Dax initially broke up but Dow not playing so back down for another retest of support with dax following, now attempting a bounce.

image.thumb.png.feac355c03406f6d07489fa0eac89572.png

Share this post


Link to post

@Roadrat,  similar situ as dax, looks to have just now failed to retake the pivot so it's a retest of the immediate low 25473 which it's approaching now, if that fails it's heading down to S1 around 25337.

Share this post


Link to post

@Caseynotes the Dow did hit 25337 as you predicted and has now bounced back to 25550.  Any thoughts on where it will go next?

Share this post


Link to post

Yes @Roadrat,  Dow did fall to 25337 as predicted but there is no trick to it, price must obey the rules and can't just wander about the chart at will. Once the sellers overwhelmed the pivot Price was forced to go in search of buyers, and the last place it found them was the most recent low at 25473 and if sellers over ran that level the next level down was S1 at 25337. Sometimes buyers in haste will intercept price along the way but they weren't that keen, and then the Trump announcement changed everything.

image.thumb.png.b24b82785173045a324492dd7edbb1c0.png

Dax and the Ger car manufacturers were the big winners with price leaping from S1 to R2.

Also posted below are the demo options trades I've been toying with lately for yesterday and today and though winners I can't say I'm taken with them, there's just no control, the first was just left till expiry and the second one I closed during the high vol but both spent most of the day in the red. I think I'll stop until I understand them better. 

image.thumb.png.b208f3551419b63b82e3161958de748f.png

opt2.thumb.PNG.007235ca68be6aff66892b53ca37e948.PNG

image.thumb.png.3c40f002b68f5385b74c98f1c89fe6cb.png

Share this post


Link to post

I know it dos't make any sense based on the news, but I think the bulls are back in control. I noticed before the news broke the H4 footsie was well above the market and the DAX wanted to follow but everything was lifeless until the news broke, this combined with the support levels on equities gives me the feeling that overnight will blossom. If not then Thursday will probably go south very quick.

Share this post


Link to post
Posted (edited)

No reason why the bulls shouldn't regain control, it's a hundred year bull market after all and there is a 3 - 4 week  pax on re trade wars and the US economy continues to flourish, so long the wheels keep turning there will be growth and that is always bullish.

Edited by Caseynotes

Share this post


Link to post
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

No reason why the bulls shouldn't regain control, it's a hundred year bull market after all and there is a 3 - 4 week  pax on re trade wars and the US economy continues to flourish, so long the wheels keep turning there will be growth and that is always bullish.

You are so right about that. So many people have bearish personalities even after 100 years of history they find it hard to get bullish after a correction, just one reason why around 80% of trades loose their shirts dealing on the markets, but let's not get to far ahead of ourselves, I'm looking forward to Thursday morning before I start to crow about the bulls being back this could just be a correction in the bear trend, if this sells off overnight I'm a Grisly again.

Edited by Foxy
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

Looking for an initial bounce up off the pivots for an eventual retest of the highs, no major news events on the calendar for today or tomorrow. 

image.thumb.png.96de7206163e631699cb7879ffb5d5b2.png

Share this post


Link to post

Having said yesterday I would stop trialing options on demo I changed my mind, how else to learn. I just closed out this mornings position as dax looks to stall at resistance, was targeting around 12130 anyway. Is there any simple way to place a target on the option to close without a complicated reverse position?

image.thumb.png.276eacd630585a4e01818aaf439dac9c.png

image.thumb.png.01b57e13ec4e9b3ee3b602cc8685acc7.png

Share this post


Link to post

Spoke too soon but never mind as dow and dax surge to break prior high resistance and head for R1;

image.thumb.png.6d97c056105da1b1a5292b1b49b7274f.png

 

Share this post


Link to post

Think we are in a rinse and repeat cycle till G20 and the big meeting.

May get resolution earlier. 

We could be getting ready for the blow off top before the big leg down.

Guess we cant pre-empt as that defeats TA.

On TA sometimes as you said some bits do feel like snake oil.

Probably feel that more around indicators. Patterns and Rand S levels feel more solid.

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Our picks

    • Post in Indices
      "UK retail sales at 9:30 and US durable goods at 1:30. Strong bear day yesterday though only Nikkei tested key support levels." Stay up to date on how the indices are moving and have your say.
    • Post in Successful strategy?
      Analysis of 43 million trades by DailyFX showed that 61% of trades are actually profitable (when looking at EURUSD specifically). Read more about that and check out their Podcast here. Have any questions? Ask away.
        • Thanks
        • Like
    • Brent Crude rally ends, time for the big Bear!
      "Looks to me like my question as to whether the the 25 April turn was a rally end or a simple retrace may have been answered as Brent price dropped hard through the supporting lower channel line.  I would like to see the recent lows broken to confirm but odds are that this market is now heading down.  Could this mean that Stocks have also topped out?"
      • 7 replies
    • Post in Dax & Dow
      What are your long term opinions on market movements? "As for the Dow above 26k lets rock and roll long. Below 25k time to get more aggressively short in my eyes."
        • Like
    • Post in US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity
      What's your trigger for opening a trade? Discuss with others on the Community, specifically about the US500: "I think there's a potential possibility of shorting S&P 500 brewing.  I want to wait to see if the 20 MA does drop beneath the 50 MA."
  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      6,746
    • Total Posts
      31,146
    • Total Members
      40,993
    Newest Member
    John_Mac
    Joined 24/05/19 11:56
  • Posts

    • You may well be right @786Trader there are a lot of fundamentals based theories around so yours is as good as anyone's.  My hypothesis is not based on Oil fundamentals but can be summed up in 2 words: Deflationary Depression. Regarding the Dow, this attached is my long term view.  
    • @ mindthegap Did not agree with much of the  linked you tube video. Thought he was full of it to be honest. BS with a sprinkling of useful truth.  He may have been to Asia but completely failed to understand them. Foxconn make Apple devices in China because there is no way Apple could make them as well, as quick or as cheaply in the US or even Mexico. For example. So either prices go up or Apples margins go right down. Plus everyone is paying more for anything made in china, including simple items like shoes. Not inflationary at all. Ever considered China may do to Apple what Trump has done to Huawei. Trump is a bull in China's shop. And we will all have to pick up the tab.  
    • Interesting postulation. The big bear? Not quite so convinced.  For mostly obvious political reasons to do with supply and demand. Brent to $28? Not anytime soon.  WTI crude an unlikely maybe, but Brent ? I am wholly unconvinced.  The markets are not over supplied. Demand is as strong as ever. Not to mention sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Saudi will not continue to sell oil on the cheap, even if Trump tells them to,  though the Russians will with their current batch of chlorinated crude.  A $28 Brent implies a Dow @18000 or less or vast reserves newly discovered. A market adjustment where the Dow rocks down to 20K late 2020 is a solid maybe, but oil?  Graphics tell a story, but the giant big bear has not convinced me.  Personally, I can see oil increasing through political tension and the strong possibility of actual conflict. The strait of Hormuz controls 30% of global supplies.   Support at the $68 mark is considerable.     
    • All blue though small gains;
    • @johnt4917, @nit2wynit, @dmedin, Different traders can have different strategies and still all be successful depending on how one defines success. A lot of traders define success as having more winning trades than losing trades.  My strategy incurs at times more losing trades than winning trades. However, the key measurement of how I personally define success is to ensure that the profit from my winning trades is greater than the losses on my losing trades. A consistently profitable trader could be deemed as having a successful trading strategy if this is demonstrated over many years. Some traders who consistently make higher profits than others over many years could be deemed as having a more successful trading strategy. So if for example I trade 10 times and 7 are losing trades and 3 are winning trades then that is a 70% failure rate and 30% success rate. Now some may deem this as an unsuccessful trading strategy. Now what if the profits on my 30% of winning trades were far greater than the losses on the 70% of my losing trades. If this was achieved consistently over many years then it changes the dynamic of how one thinks about a successful trading strategy.  Your personality, mind set and psychological approach to trading has a big influence on the type of trading strategy one ends up being more comfortable with and adopting. It is about finding the right trading strategy that suits you (we are all different) and then really fine tuning it to ensure it meets your trading goals and objectives. Once this is understood then one will quickly realise that there is no professional or amateur on IG Community but just traders. Some will be more experienced that others. Some will apply far more complex trading methods and conduct far more technical and challenging analysis. However, this does not mean they are more profitable or are making greater profits than those who are not.
×
×