Dax & Dow

[Caseynotes]

30 minutes ago, Bell said:

Think we are in a rinse and repeat cycle till G20 and the big meeting.

May get resolution earlier. 

We could be getting ready for the blow off top before the big leg down.

Guess we cant pre-empt as that defeats TA.

On TA sometimes as you said some bits do feel like snake oil.

Probably feel that more around indicators. Patterns and Rand S levels feel more solid.

Yes, the storm will come when Trump slaps the 25% on everything, til then the basic fundamentals should grind price higher.

[Bell]

The trade war may be pulling back. That what seems to be the reaction.

If you look at the SH etf inverse S+P when this baby blows the short side over two years could be incredible.

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, Bell said:

The trade war may be pulling back. That what seems to be the reaction.

yeah but only for 3-4 weeks, that's the deadline Trump gave the Chinese when they turned up in Washington having just ripped up the core of the deal, Trump immediately upped from 10% to 25% on some goods and promised to do the rest if they didn't come back to the table.

[Caseynotes]

Looking for a dow bounce up off the pivot and dax to follow, failing that then a retest of support, 25723 for dow and the pivot for dax.

M30 charts;

[Bell]

The last couple of days the rhetoric between the two softened and that kick started the bounce.

Does not mean we won't get it - but thoughts are from media that they are accommodating each other.

I like the charts. If trade war kicks off we could see some frightening falls.

The market feels skittish. Is this '87 again?

[Caseynotes]

Dow looking lower for support but dax not following down, holding out for as long as possible waiting for dow to turn up a sign dax really wants to go higher.

[Caseynotes]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Looking for a dow bounce up off the pivot and dax to follow, failing that then a retest of support, 25723 for dow and the pivot for dax.

Went for the test of support, both now trying to bounce back up. 

[Caseynotes]

 

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Went for the test of support, both now trying to bounce back up. 

Dow bounced back to the pivot, rejected, down through 25723 and now approaching S1

[Caseynotes]

 

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Dow bounced back to the pivot, rejected, down through 25723 and now approaching S1

S1 held and now on the US open a strong bullish push.

[Caseynotes]

Dow has raced up to horizontal and trendline resistance looking for a break;

[Caseynotes]

On the London open Dax is hovering around the daily pivot 12330 . R1 is 12304 and S1 is 12150.

M30 chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax, dow and ftse keeping in step after a fail to push higher after the open saw a test of support, now waiting to see if they can bounce up from here or needing to find stronger support lower down.

[Caseynotes]

Coming up to the US open and dax has pushed down through 2 levels of support while dow is hanging around Friday's low. Recently we have seen the US market lift price after the London session has pushed them down.

[Bell]

If the D50 breaks at 11896 I would target 11400 as a key support area.

Feels more down than up but that could be the head fake.

[WallStFoxy]

@Bell

Yep I'm with you on that, so long as we don't get a rally above 12150 then 11400 has to the target.

[dmedin]

You guys remind me of the IG people at 07:30 and 10:30 every weekday morning, extremely abbreviated, not too much detail for those of us who are slow and stupid.  I can't make head or tail of it. 

Presented with this picture in hindsight.  If you think you've identified a bottom, would you just aim for a 30 - 60% bounce back?  

 

What value do you get from 1 hour and 4 hour charts?  Isn't it safer to look at day charts and base your position on previous days' closes?  How about referencing weekly closes too?  Wouldn't this pattern have been useful in predicting the following week's price action?

Edited May 21, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Presented with this picture in hindsight.  If you think you've identified a bottom, would you just aim for a 30 - 60% bounce back?  

@dmedin  the weekly chart would seem to indicate that the move down was the pullback and the subsequent move back up was the trend continuation. There are many ways to read a chart which is just as well as that is what makes a market. If everyone thought the same there would be no one to take the other side of your trade, who will be proved right depends as much on future events as anything else. 

[Caseynotes]

Dow has drifted up over the daily pivot overnight so we may see a retest of it before longer term direction becomes clear. On large ranging days like yesterday the S&R pivots are stretched so prior highs and lows increase in importance. Don't forget that if you are using IG's web based platform Monday's pivots are distorted by the 2 hourly Sunday candles so you need to find them from another source and put them in manually but Tuesday's are fine.

[Caseynotes]

Bit of a drawn out battle for control of the pivot today but looks to be away and heading for R1 and yesterday's highs.

[Bell]

My targets tend to be longer term. Do not feel as confident TA wise on the short term cycle.

This why I appreciate Casey. But we can all make good money playing a Long term cycle as well.

As for the Dow above 26k lets rock and roll long. Below 25k time to get more aggressively short in my eyes.

There we can allow 200dma as a res point. It may graze under and be a bear trap and shoot higher.

I feel below 25k the game changes.

[Bell]

Important to remember the growing power of share buybacks powering the US market.

Also international investment pushing it higher. If that moves out we could see air pockets below.

[Caseynotes]

Dax looking about to retest the pivot (12134) this morning, confirmed resistance overhead at 12177 and S1 below at 12082. The China company blacklist news overnight may cause a stir on the market open.

Dow in a similar situation, looking to retest the pivot around 25830 having retested resistance above at 25900. S1 is at 25760.

 

[WallStFoxy]

Fake out or Breakout?

[Mercury]

How sound is the line @Foxy

[WallStFoxy]

Starting to look like a fakeout!!

[WallStFoxy]

2 minutes ago, Mercury said:

How sound is the line @Foxy

It's a fair question but my lines are mostly based on the short term so for me, they're bang on. Here's a better view, but anyway it's done the job well.

[Mercury]

@Foxy

Although I can't quite see it, I assume you are suggesting the trend line is telling you that was a fakeout.  Maybe on a 5 min chart or something but if you remove the 1 hour trend line does it still look like a fakeout?  Couldn't it just as easily be a natural zigzag.  I would say nothing is yet conclusive on stocks 1 hour charts right now but it depends on your trading horizon, as you imply.  As I don't day trade I am waiting for something more substantial.  Still the point I was suggesting to you  is that where you draw the lines is important and zooming out helps to put things in context. 

[WallStFoxy]

13 minutes ago, Mercury said:

@Foxy

Although I can't quite see it, I assume you are suggesting the trend line is telling you that was a fakeout.  Maybe on a 5 min chart or something but if you remove the 1 hour trend line does it still look like a fakeout?  Couldn't it just as easily be a natural zigzag.  I would say nothing is yet conclusive on stocks 1 hour charts right now but it depends on your trading horizon, as you imply.  As I don't day trade I am waiting for something more substantial.  Still the point I was suggesting to you  is that where you draw the lines is important and zooming out helps to put things in context. 

@Mercury

If you are struggling to see the time frame on the chart just click on the chart for a full view. 

[Caseynotes]

Dax tagged R1 then fell in line with Dow, seems to be connected with increasing rhetoric about decreasing trade deal prospects coming out of China.

[Caseynotes]

An unusual and interesting move sees dax and dow not bothering with the pivot and head straight down overnight to S1 in the case of dow, dax got half way before the pair bounced. Expecting an early retest of the recent low and then probability says lower to test more substantial support but the EU market open coming up at 7am and the London open at 8 will reveal all.