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This is beginning to look ominous across the indices. US poor open and DAX below12k.

Don't want to see a break below 25k.

Love my longs.

Was praying for calms for just a couple of months.  Don't look that way.

Also summer volumes may dry up so moves will be more pronounced.

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Dow open drive down to S3, markets have been pricing in the realisation there will be no resolution to the trade war any time soon and likely to get worse before it gets better.

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This is somewhat annoying could we have some calm for 6 months, please.

Would like to enjoy my longs... actually desperate too.

Have a horrible feeling we are looking at a 21750 retest.

24500 first support in my view if we break below.

Looking at a bounce then a gap below 200 dma. Thoughts guys?

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Looks like 25214 might get retested but it's a strong level with multiple confirmations, 21750 is still a long way off and a number of support levels before then.

 

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A lot has to happen with the Dow just that the chart looks horrible. Especially the MACD.

On both the bounces will speak volumes.

Foxy's line at 11800 looks pivotal. Does not feel like there is a lot of oomph in European markets.

They could take the biggest hit from the trade war.

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Both dax and dow have traveled back up to check the pivot and look to be trying an early break upward. The dow's open drive down yesterday on trade war concerns was compounded by lower than expected US PMI data later in the afternoon. Today will either see a retest of the lows or an attempt to bounce back up on thinking the sell off was overdone. 

image.thumb.png.0291f782474b58f40186363bf3a68f20.png

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9 hours ago, Bell said:

A lot has to happen with the Dow just that the chart looks horrible. Especially the MACD.

On both the bounces will speak volumes.

Foxy's line at 11800 looks pivotal. Does not feel like there is a lot of oomph in European markets.

They could take the biggest hit from the trade war.

@Bell

Either way, The DAX looks good to me a drop below 11800 should open a trap door and deliver some great shorts but if for some reason we get a bounce 12500 looks good on the long side, sounds like a win-win from here.

Edited by Foxy
wrong tag

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Appreciate the erroneous tag @Foxy but as I have now accessed this thread I thought I would add my 2cents worth FWIW.  To be clear, I do not trade the Dax but I do monitor it for congruence/divergence vs other indices.

I am currently of the mindset that the Dax was the first of my indices to top out, way back in Jan 2018 and looks to have posted a Head & Shoulders formation with an associated iceline zone between 11,700-900.  Stochastic and RSI are over bought, typical of a wave 2 end but there are 3 possible scenarios still in play as follows:

  1. Wave 2 (purple) not yet completed, will travel up to Fib67/78% and retest the medium term trendline that was broken back in Oct 8 when the US large Caps turned down sharply.
  2. Wave 2 Purple is already in (see Daily chart) and a smaller EWT 1-2 is also done and now the market will drop from here.  A break through the iceline would confirm this.
  3. The Dax will join the US large caps with a fresh ATH, negating the H&S (SP500 & Nasdaq at least, Dow is not there).  The price action from the Jan 18 top could be seen more as an A-B-C retrace (red labels), which supports a strong final rally to a fresh ATH, likely at or near the upper very long term resistance trendline.

Looking at the Daily chart there is a strong pair of parallel channel lines, however Momentum is still is very strong negative divergence territory, will take something to reverse this and we haven't yet had a drop sufficient to reset.  If scenario 2 is correct then I would anticipate a swift drop through the lower channel line that never looks back (or maybe a short term retest) as this would be a wave 3.  So for me the lower channel line break is the key trigger (not withstanding the dreaded fakeout!) followed by a break of the iceline support zone.

 

DAX-Weekly_240519.thumb.png.c93d169ea01092e0bc6af9155abbd8cf.pngDAX-Daily_240519.thumb.png.aa38e7a38228f32a27c0f9d607d8b119.png

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After the check at the pivot dax moved on to tag R1, currently back to join dow mid way between pivot and R1 awaiting the US market open.

May be a tame Friday afternoon and into US market close as it's a public holiday in the US on Monday as well as UK.

image.thumb.png.3b06250abdabe04163fcc73936504033.png

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