Dax & Dow

[Caseynotes]

Initial push down on the US open;

M15 charts;

[Caseynotes]

On the zoomed out Dow H1 we can see the previous double top level 26250 (red) is within reach and price looks willing to test it in the near future, will look for that to be broken this week to signal a move higher for all the indices. 

[Caseynotes]

Dow completed it's drift lower to the pivot around 26100 while Dax ranging between 12125 and 12079. Fairly flat market so far.

[Caseynotes]

Both Dax ad Dow have fallen away from the pivot towards S1 and both have something of a triangle pattern going on in the M30 charts. Looking to see if the European open shows direction. Currently the Bears hold the pivot so looking to target S1 but that may change especially after the London open at 8am.

[Guest mykig]

Hope will get direction today as already crushed yesterday lol

 

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, mykig said:

Hope will get direction today as already crushed yesterday lol

 

Yes, looking at the dailies it's a pretty bleak row of insignificant candles stretching back over a week, the Ger econ senti at 10am may get a reaction but everyone seems to be waiting for the FOMC mon pol statement tomorrow.

Flat and balanced markets are difficult and not trading is often the better plan until they become directional again, otherwise it's a case of drilling down and finding short sharp targets playing the range.

[Kodiak]

Last week was a inside bar and yesterday was a inside bar

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Draghi is talking up a rates cut, see Dax, but what's going on with Dow?

Edited June 18, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

R3 and R4 levels for Dax and Dow here 🙂

[phillo]

On ‎05‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 10:47, elle said:

onward & upward

getting there

[Guest mykig]

Yes, looking at the dailies it's a pretty bleak row of insignificant candles stretching back over a week, the Ger econ senti at 10am may get a reaction but everyone seems to be waiting for the FOMC mon pol statement tomorrow.

Flat and balanced markets are difficult and not trading is often the better plan until they become directional again, otherwise it's a case of drilling down and finding short sharp targets playing the range.

wish everybody had read that yesterday to kept them selves safe from double edge sword thanks casey 

[Caseynotes]

Yes, and then they went real directional real quick. Now bull flags and stretched pivot levels and the FOMC later today will likely overshadow and subdue action before hand. May look for support confirmation during the day, can't really see them striking out for R1 before FOMC though Dax can be boisterous and may have a go. 

[Caseynotes]

Looking for trend continuation today though Dow may initially pullback to check support.

M30 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dow breaks and retests R1, moves onto R2. 

H1 chart;

[phillo]

On ‎19‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 04:46, elle said:

getting there

Done    

[Caseynotes]

Dow takes out 26708 and R2 and makes a start on R3, Dax meanwhile takes a breather between R2 & 3.

Dax and Dow H1.

[Caseynotes]

Dax looking to check the pivot at 12370 while Dow is looking up at the recent high of 26800.

Ger PMIs at 8:30.

[Caseynotes]

Dax moving sideways waiting for Dow to check support, Dow will try to hold here at 26730 and push up again, otherwise it's down for a test of 26708.

[Caseynotes]

Dow did retry for the high bit failed so back down to 26708 and found support, now back in the middle and not sure which way to go.

[Caseynotes]

And wow, that monthly resistance line (purple) which is also the ATH is just right there, but it's likely very strong meaning a very strong push will be needed to carry the ball over and touch it down on the other side.

In the meantime Dow checking the pivot from the underside and Dax looking to do the same. As ever, first looking to see who controls the pivot then looking for targets in that direction.

Nb/ pivot levels taken from Friday's data not Sunday's.

H1 charts;

Edited June 24, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

Dax tests recent support, Dow sideways. maybe the US market open will inject some omph.

[Caseynotes]

Both Dax and Dow look like rejecting S1, if so the next move will be on to S2 but the more weighty influence of the London market open at 8am may stir things up.

Dow recently tested S2 which is the recent low (26656) so that looks a crucial level for the day, if price can stay above then it should go on to test the pivot then maybe the recent high (26800). 

Dax will try to follow Dow but is weighed by the never ending gloomy news out of German manufacturing and the two charts are diverging. I suspect if Dow goes sideways Dax will go down.

H1 charts.

[dmedin]

Indices are almost as difficult to trade as forex.  Ugh I feel so stupid.

[Caseynotes]

21 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Indices are almost as difficult to trade as forex.  Ugh I feel so stupid.

Learn to recognise the difference between balanced and directional markets and stay out of when it's balanced.

Balanced;                                                                              Directional;

😉

[WallStFoxy]

3 hours ago, dmedin said:

Indices are almost as difficult to trade as forex.  Ugh I feel so stupid.

@dmedin

The DAX and the FTSE are pushed and pulled by wall st. and today it's not clear what will happen. Because wall st. pulled back over night today's move on the DAX & FTSE have been nervous.

[Caseynotes]

36 minutes ago, Foxy said:

The DAX and the FTSE are pushed and pulled by wall st. and today it's not clear what will happen. Because wall st. pulled back over night today's move on the DAX & FTSE have been nervous.

That's correct, Dow has been meandering towards the pivot while Dax has been knocking on the door but refusing to go through unless Dow is holding it's hand. So waiting on some decisive action from Dow on the US market open.

M15 charts;

 

[Caseynotes]

Not much on the European open, Dow flat below the pivot while Dax positioned just below it's pivot, red daily candle for both yesterday and bears currently controlling the pivot so target is S1 but waiting for the London open to check direction for the morning.

[BoJK]

Hi,

Do you guys trade prior trading hours (ie market closed but open for trade during weekdays)? I am trying to make a stop to my recurring losses...signz

[Caseynotes]

12 minutes ago, BoJK said:

Hi,

Do you guys trade prior trading hours (ie market closed but open for trade during weekdays)? I am trying to make a stop to my recurring losses...signz

I tend to trade Dax and stick to the London market hours because there is better follow through, I like to look at Dow and use as a leading directional indicator. Then I'll look to pivot points on the M5 chart, there is often a battle at the levels so wait til a winner emerges and join the ride on a pullback on the M1 chart.

 

 

[Guest jonah88888]

19 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Not much on the European open, Dow flat below the pivot while Dax positioned just below it's pivot, red daily candle for both yesterday and bears currently controlling the pivot so target is S1 but waiting for the London open to check direction for the morning.

Hi Casey, how do you determine S1 etc?