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Dax got it's bounce off S1 but had to wait for Dow to come down and bounce off it's pivot, the move back up is lacking drive though.

M15 charts;

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On the zoomed out Dow H1 we can see the previous double top level 26250 (red) is within reach and price looks willing to test it in the near future, will look for that to be broken this week to signal a move higher for all the indices. 

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Dow completed it's drift lower to the pivot around 26100 while Dax ranging between 12125 and 12079. Fairly flat market so far.

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Both Dax ad Dow have fallen away from the pivot towards S1 and both have something of a triangle pattern going on in the M30 charts. Looking to see if the European open shows direction. Currently the Bears hold the pivot so looking to target S1 but that may change especially after the London open at 8am.

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Hope will get direction today as already crushed yesterday lol

 

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1 minute ago, mykig said:

Hope will get direction today as already crushed yesterday lol

 

Yes, looking at the dailies it's a pretty bleak row of insignificant candles stretching back over a week, the Ger econ senti at 10am may get a reaction but everyone seems to be waiting for the FOMC mon pol statement tomorrow.

Flat and balanced markets are difficult and not trading is often the better plan until they become directional again, otherwise it's a case of drilling down and finding short sharp targets playing the range.

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Last week was a inside bar and yesterday was a inside bar

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Draghi is talking up a rates cut, see Dax, but what's going on with Dow?

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Edited by Caseynotes

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On ‎05‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 10:47, elle said:

onward & upward

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getting there

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Yes, looking at the dailies it's a pretty bleak row of insignificant candles stretching back over a week, the Ger econ senti at 10am may get a reaction but everyone seems to be waiting for the FOMC mon pol statement tomorrow.

Flat and balanced markets are difficult and not trading is often the better plan until they become directional again, otherwise it's a case of drilling down and finding short sharp targets playing the range.

wish everybody had read that yesterday to kept them selves safe from double edge sword thanks casey 
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Yes, and then they went real directional real quick. Now bull flags and stretched pivot levels and the FOMC later today will likely overshadow and subdue action before hand. May look for support confirmation during the day, can't really see them striking out for R1 before FOMC though Dax can be boisterous and may have a go. 

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Looking for trend continuation today though Dow may initially pullback to check support.

M30 charts;

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On ‎19‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 04:46, elle said:

getting there

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Done   :) 

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Dow takes out 26708 and R2 and makes a start on R3, Dax meanwhile takes a breather between R2 & 3.

Dax and Dow H1.

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Dax looking to check the pivot at 12370 while Dow is looking up at the recent high of 26800.

Ger PMIs at 8:30.

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Dax moving sideways waiting for Dow to check support, Dow will try to hold here at 26730 and push up again, otherwise it's down for a test of 26708.

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Dow did retry for the high bit failed so back down to 26708 and found support, now back in the middle and not sure which way to go.

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Posted (edited)

And wow, that monthly resistance line (purple) which is also the ATH is just right there, but it's likely very strong meaning a very strong push will be needed to carry the ball over and touch it down on the other side.

In the meantime Dow checking the pivot from the underside and Dax looking to do the same. As ever, first looking to see who controls the pivot then looking for targets in that direction.

Nb/ pivot levels taken from Friday's data not Sunday's.

H1 charts;

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Edited by Caseynotes
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Dax tests recent support, Dow sideways. maybe the US market open will inject some omph.

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Both Dax and Dow look like rejecting S1, if so the next move will be on to S2 but the more weighty influence of the London market open at 8am may stir things up.

Dow recently tested S2 which is the recent low (26656) so that looks a crucial level for the day, if price can stay above then it should go on to test the pivot then maybe the recent high (26800). 

Dax will try to follow Dow but is weighed by the never ending gloomy news out of German manufacturing and the two charts are diverging. I suspect if Dow goes sideways Dax will go down.

H1 charts.

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:(

Indices are almost as difficult to trade as forex.  Ugh I feel so stupid.

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21 minutes ago, dmedin said:

:(

Indices are almost as difficult to trade as forex.  Ugh I feel so stupid.

Learn to recognise the difference between balanced and directional markets and stay out of when it's balanced.

Balanced;                                                                              Directional;

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😉

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3 hours ago, dmedin said:

:(

Indices are almost as difficult to trade as forex.  Ugh I feel so stupid.

@dmedin

The DAX and the FTSE are pushed and pulled by wall st. and today it's not clear what will happen. Because wall st. pulled back over night today's move on the DAX & FTSE have been nervous.

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36 minutes ago, Foxy said:

The DAX and the FTSE are pushed and pulled by wall st. and today it's not clear what will happen. Because wall st. pulled back over night today's move on the DAX & FTSE have been nervous.

That's correct, Dow has been meandering towards the pivot while Dax has been knocking on the door but refusing to go through unless Dow is holding it's hand. So waiting on some decisive action from Dow on the US market open.

M15 charts;

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Not much on the European open, Dow flat below the pivot while Dax positioned just below it's pivot, red daily candle for both yesterday and bears currently controlling the pivot so target is S1 but waiting for the London open to check direction for the morning.

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Hi,

Do you guys trade prior trading hours (ie market closed but open for trade during weekdays)? I am trying to make a stop to my recurring losses...signz

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12 minutes ago, BoJK said:

Hi,

Do you guys trade prior trading hours (ie market closed but open for trade during weekdays)? I am trying to make a stop to my recurring losses...signz

I tend to trade Dax and stick to the London market hours because there is better follow through, I like to look at Dow and use as a leading directional indicator. Then I'll look to pivot points on the M5 chart, there is often a battle at the levels so wait til a winner emerges and join the ride on a pullback on the M1 chart.

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    • Going back to my FTSE analysis I see things as follows: 2 scenarios present themselves, other than fresh ATHs that is: 1) the move down to the turn on Thursday was a wave 1 (blue) off a larger scale wave 2 (purple) that should retrace, maybe in a complex fashion with a lot of whip saw price action maybe not, let's see; 2) the recent rally and drop to a new low was a 1-2 (red), which indicates a much stronger leg down is immanent. The #2 scenario would only be valid if price holds below the previous high (circa 7300).  I favour the #1 scenario. There was PMD on the 4H chart at wave 1 (blue), which suggests this is a turning point.  Also the 4H chart shows a 1-5 wave down to the 1 blue, which would be motive and suggests a trend change to the bearish side. There was strong NMD at wave 2 (Purple) which is consistent with a large scale retrace move. Just as with the US large caps, after the stop and turn up there was a sharp retrace drop to the Fib 76/78% zone before the current rally.  As the FTSE was in out of hours at the end of the week this market has not rallied as hard as the US markets.  Also we may yet see fresh ATHs on US large caps while the FTSE100 only puts in a counter trend rally. If we do see fresh ATHs on US large caps and only a retrace on FTSE and probably Dax and Nikkei as well then comparing these markets will be instructive for calling that top on US large caps.  We may, alternatively, see only a retrace on US large caps too if the top of the market in already in. Conclusion: we can anticipate a bullish period on all major indices BUT should guard against a quick reversal on FTSE 100 that would set up scenario #2.  Either way this market looks to have topped out so the coming months though to the Autumn will be critical to deciding things on all indices, and likely quite a few other markets. I am Long the FTSE 100, coincident with my Dow Longs and will swing this up for now but my bearish bias for the long term will keep we watchful for a break down of this rally and I will not be pyramiding this one, far too risky until things are resolved.
    • "....more broadly we have seen currency wars but these have not really captured the imagination of the MSM yet" Actually I'd argue we have had currency wars for some years already. History shows it goes in the following order: Currency war, Trade war, War. (Regrettably).  If I recall correctly the market falls of early 2015 (about 20% down) were blamed on Yuan being devalued by Chinese manipulation. Way before Trump! "....we suddenly get a super massive set of central bank policies that drop rates to zero" Again I'd say that has been going on for some years. Arguably you could say about 35 years since the Plaza Accord. Once fiat became unaccountable (no gold standard) the politicians proceeded to spend, spend spend =debt,debt,debt. Expect MMT  (US Democrats pushing modern monetary theory) to allow them to continue in that vein. Again history says these currencies will all eventually disappear, like species, approx 95% no longer exist.  Broadly I agree with what you say. The present financial system is critically sick that's for sure. It has propped up assets with huge doses of QE and zero rate interest policy (expect more of that when the ECB meets next month). You are correct about the size of stock markets. If the global market was a horse the bond market would be three legs of it! I digress.... However, if you are faced with massive debts then here are your options: 1) Default - Argentinian/Zimbabwe style. Not likely, at least until all other options tried - as that's the end game. 2) Grow the economy at a fast enough rate to meet and exceed future repayment obligations. In a global low anaemic growth environment? Unlikely. 3) Inflate like mad. It's the only viable option. You could, reasonably say, that after 3 massive QE sessions and ZIRP and now  NIRP that deflation is winning. Arguably it's all been a waste of time / money. Where's the kitchen sink? Presumably more of the same and then some helicopter money? It seems to me that this is more in line with Japan (targeted 10yr bond rate = 0%) which someone said in the 90s was  "...the dress rehearsal. The rest of the world will be the main event". Trying to get inflation without destroying the USD global reserve status is unlikely in my opinion and you can't help but feel that some sort of Bretton Woods global RESET will eventually emerge. It's certainly what Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Turkey etc are angling for.....and their central banks have been big buyers of bullion recently. That's why I'd recommend holding gold. Not as a trading strategy (which is what I appreciate this forum is). Nice sharing these thoughts with you>
    • So it looks like my crazy set of channels on the Daily chart is still holding well.  The breakout of the last channel line, which coincides with a nice zone of lateral S/R was retested but failed as I noted in my previous post.  I got Short off an initial rejection from this zone and Resistance line with a tight stop but price never came back so nicely in on a couple of Short positions and stop protected at BE.  Price moved back through the monthly lower channel line (purple) and put in a quick daily candle failed retest and dropped away.  It is possible we could see another retest of this resistance zone before any further move but a break below the 5760 level would be indicative that the Bear has resumed and obviously a break of the previous low around the $56 mark would once again bring $50 into focus.  
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