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USD JPY Could we see a re-test of the 110 level?


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My latest reading on this pair is a continuation of my recent readings in that I see a completed wave B and turn at a near double bottom.  My indicators on Hourly and Daily are all showing for a rally and I have a tramline break and kiss back on the Hourly.


I believe this is a relief rally only but should go to 11050-11150 so a good circa 300 points on offer before I'm looking for a turn back down and a chance to join the major trend again.


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So the USDJPY is going according to plan with a rally behind USD strength (see also DX thread) but where do we go from here?  On my Hourly chart I have a good set of tramlines, with 2 tram breaks and kiss backs during this first phase of the rally and now the price action is coming up on a daily chart resistance tram.  Will it break through and if so how far will this go?


It is all too easy to get sucked into small timeframe thinking and I was on this one for a while.  I was at first thinking this might just be a small retrace, the Yen is strong right?  Follow the trend right?  But, if I look at the daily chart I see something different.  A big retrace rally in the offing and we havn't yet hit the Wave A of this move.  There is strong Pos Mom Div behind this move and the strength of the USD so my forecast is for this move to hit a Wave A after a break of the Daily tram (red) and then a retrace in wave B before a strong rally up to wave C conclusion before a resumption of the main trend down.  There isn't a lot of gain in it for the next few days, maybe wait for the tram break and pull back to enter for the final leg of Wave A but if I can spot the conclusion of wave B then Wave C could give up 700+ points.  Added to my lower Long that will be a decent haul.






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As you quite rightly point out Mercury, USD:JPY has maintained some quite strong momentum, and today has allowed a clearer picture to develop. Momentum up, past 61% fib level, past key 45° gann line in the last few days and broke daily tramline, and in news speculation terms, the BOJ appear to want to further attempt weakening of the currency, but technical analysis will dominate of course the traders moves.


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