Jump to content

GBPJPY - All timeframes point lower. Looking to sell rallies


PIA_First_IC

Recommended Posts

Having another look at GBPJPY this week as all time-frames are highlighting a downward bias on selling into rallies.

 

Monthly: After the monthly Ichimoku Cloud had capped buying, follow through selling is likely to form an AMR (Acute Monthly Reversal Candle). In this scenario a Bearish Outside Candle

GBPJPY ig M.png

 

Weekly: Holding within a bearish Ending Wedge pattern. On a break of trend line support at 144.90 the target (start of the edge) is 135.60. The Marabuzo from week 5th February (midpoint from open and close) is seen at 152.86

GBPJPY ig W.png

 

Intraday (four-hours) – Mixed trading for the last 9 days has resulted in the cross forming a corrective channel formation. Upside barriers are:

  1. 2% Fibonacci pullback level at 151.33 (from 156.61-147.96)
  2. Bespoke resistance at 151.35
  3. Trend line resistance is seen at 151.75
  4. Aforementioned Marabuzo level at 152.86

GBPJPY ig 4.png

 

Selling at 151.30 with a stop at 153.30 and a target of 135.60 (wedge target) offers a reward to risk ratio of 7.85/1 (we would recommend moving the stop to entry on a move through 144.90)

 

In regards to the PIA analysis, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result.

 

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Soybeans Elliott Wave Analysis  Function - Trend  Mode - Impulse  Structure - Impulse for (5)  Position - Wave 1 of (5) Direction - Wave 2 of (5) Details - Wave 1 of (5) completing with a diagonal. Wave 2 bounce is emerging before the price turns downside for 3 of (5). Invalidation now at 1226’6. Not much has changed since the last update.   Soybean Price Analysis: Elliott Wave Perspective Signals Continued Downward Trend   In the realm of commodity trading, Soybean has recently undergone a significant downturn, marking a nearly 7% drop since March 21st. This decline appears to be part of a broader trend that commenced back in June 2022. However, before this recent descent, there was a brief period of respite characterized by a corrective bounce starting in late February.    Delving deeper into the price action, an Elliott Wave analysis sheds light on the intricacies of Soybean's movement. The daily chart's decline since June 2022 reveals a corrective pattern, delineated into waves A-B-C, as denoted by blue annotations.   The initial wave, labeled as Blue Wave 'A', terminated at 1249 in October 2023, exhibiting a distinct diagonal pattern. Subsequently, a modest rebound ensued, marked by Blue Wave 'B', which concluded at 1398 in November 2023. However, the ascendancy was short-lived as the bears regained control, manifesting in the ongoing development of Blue Wave 'C'. This wave, evolving into an impulse wave, has currently progressed to wave (5) following the completion of wave (4) in March 2024.   Zooming in on the H4 chart, a granular analysis reveals the sub-waves of wave (5). Wave 1 of (5) concluded with a diagonal structure, followed by a corrective phase as the price undergoes a temporary upside correction to complete wave 2. Despite uncertainties regarding whether wave 2 has fully concluded or will undergo another upward leg, the overarching trajectory remains clear – a downward break is anticipated to continue wave 3 of (5), leading to further downside movement.   In light of this analysis, the prevailing sentiment favors sellers, who continue to assert dominance over the commodity market. As long as the price remains below 1226’6, the outlook remains skewed towards further downside potential, with the possibility of reaching the lowest price point since November 2020.   In conclusion, the Elliott Wave perspective offers valuable insights into Soybean's price dynamics, signaling a continued bearish trajectory in the near term. While short-term fluctuations may occur, the broader trend suggests that sellers are likely to maintain control, shaping the commodity's price action in the foreseeable future.   Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!        
×
×
  • Create New...
us