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RE: EURUSD

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Continues sideways, may be breaking down and looking to test major support from the weekly chart (11320), lots of space below.

 



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Hi Caseynotes,

 

Another tough market to call just now (see also my comment on Cable).  Again a probable EW4 with lots of whipsaw action.  I think the Euro is acting more strongly than GBP at present and I am targeting a return to the up-sloping tram (green) on the Daily chart for a completion of this move and the W4.  At this point we should see a strong drop off to the bottom.

 

BTW, this also fits with the EURGBP situation in that I am forecasting the EUR to rise vs GBP to about 8100 level before any potential drop.

 

Here are my charts:



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Hi 

 

Nice chart series, I love the work you put in. It's important to know the significant levels and to plan ahead how to react if they hold or break, speaking of which Cable making another strong move on 14180.

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Couldn't agree more.  I was never successful when I didn't have a long term roadmap with support/resistance levels marked out.  Even if this usually leads to several scenarios I find it vital to have them mapped out.  Do like to hear from others on support/resistance in case I have missed some though, which happens all to often!

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If you are interested in a short term day trade a Long on EURUSD may be in the offing.  I have a triangle formation around a EW3-4 move RSI/Stochastic over slod on the hourly chart and positive momentum building (not a divergence but I wouldn't expect on here).  My bigger picture suggests resistance on the Daily up-sloping tram, possibly near the junction with the Daily down-sloping tram, which should contain this rally.  One final move up will complete a 1-5 of Wave C and then we could begin a drop to the bottom.  This aligns with my analysis on EURGBP and GBPUSD, the latter of which is in line for a rally (not a change in long term direction though).  I'm targeting about 11500 for a turn and shorting opportunity.  I'm not going for a Long right now, I prefer to stalk the Short further up but if I was I'd be waiting for a break of the upper line of the Triangle as there is a distinct possibility of a drop to the congestion areas (double green lines) below, which is also the Fib 38%.  Oh! as I was writing the lower line has indeed been broken, next stop Fib 38%.

 

Here are the charts:



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and cable just broke the 14050 at the same time. Lots of space below for cable.

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Snap!  LOL!

 

Tempting to see a Short immediately on GBP/USD but I'm wary of a retrace in a relief rally (i.e. a better entry a little later).  Having said that you are right it could run down strongly from here.  I am already short at the previous 2 turns so will play it cool for now.  Any Short here on GBP/USD has to either have a very close stop or a very wide one to allow for the retrace (the former is better). 

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EURUSD still has weekly support level just below at 11315. Cable forming a flag below 14050.

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I agree, I make it support at 11315 and resistance at 11410 (going back to 31 March)

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I have support range of 11300 to 11325 but I anticipate this will be broken on the next test and if it is this is a good place to Short (or on the subsequent retrace relief rally).  Agree Resistance at 11400 to 11450 but it could make the upper trend tramline before any reversal near 11500.  For me this is all set for a drop, it is just when and how high it will reach that is at question.  Similar to GBP, if it does make a higher high and gets near that tramline and rebounds then I'll go Short but if it comes back down to test the 11300-325 area I'll wait for that to complete and look for a retrace entry.

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Yes, gone sideways since the end of March with two failed attempts to break through and hold 11400. Next likely move is down to re-establish where the big buyers are waiting. If crashes through 11315 may travel down to around 11180 where there was 4/5 days of strong order flow.

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Possible ending Triangle in confluence with congestion zone (lower edge of 2 horizontal red lines).  2 possible Short entry points as either Red line.

 

Anyone got anything on this one?

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With the USD index at close to major lows it's hard to make a case for much room on the upside for the Euro. Seems happy travelling sideways (since late March) untill it gets a major push from somewhere. But levels are made to be broken so ...

 



 

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Ah yes!  That is the age old problem with support and resistance, they get broken and reverse.  That is why I try to couple them with EW cycle analysis to decide whether they are one likely to be one or the other.  Sometimes it still comes down to a coin toss but in this case I feel the long term trend remains down and resistance lines will hold.  We'll know soon enough...

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I agree with your long term bias and we are at a major daily support zone for the USD index. Though it is important with bias not to be slow in changing it if the evidence says you should.

My fav situations re; support/resistance levels is when a level gets broken, and a re-test back to the level fails confirming the break and changing support to resistance (and visa-versa). I wont play a straight breakout as a rule, though sometimes the attempt to re-test itself fails and turns into a flag which can be tempting. 

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Totally agree with both the point about being open to what's playing out and your method for trading a breakout, I favour the kiss back also, although if it is breaking out in a Wave 3 you won't get a kiss back because it will surge.  Still I like to have a bigger picture view to help me hone in on these break outs (they are often false and professionals very often "fade" them, especially where there is a false break of a long term trend line.  Sometimes you just have to go with it and set you stops to avoid a kiss back stop out.

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At least something is going right.  Until Stock markets and commodities resolve their current tipping point I'll focus on selling the pullbacks on EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP for the medium term.  I think these are all heading down, the former 2 perhaps to a long term trend completion?

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EURUSD I shorted as it's broken through , be nice if I can get a winner,C

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Make sure you keep an eye out for tier 1 data releases, especially 09:30 for GBP and 13:30 for USD. Poor retail sales figures from the US. Unexpected data can turn a market or may just be a temp hold up before continuation.

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While we fret about and wait for the stock markets and Oil to resolve the current uncertainty EURUSD is not lacking clarity in my view and has made a major turn.  Look out below!  I think this one goes all the way to and probably past recent lows at 10490ish.  Having hit the top on this one my strategy is to hold for the long run and sell the rallies.

 

Same set up is apparent on GBPUSD and EURGBP.

 



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The bears have indeed triumphed in breaking the 2 week range. While a possible bullish attempt to regain the weekly support turned resistance level of 11315 remains the re-test and failure just after the break suggests it is unlikely, the next target for the bears is 11150.

 



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Agreed, I expect a retrace rally in the small timeframe before that target is approached, which could offer an entry point for a Short, all depends on the wave profile but a decent retrace of the Fibonacci levels will offer a guide to entry and stop level.  More later as things develop, for now I'm holding what I have stop protected and waiting for a decent retrace rally to happen and conclude before considering any further trading.

 

Again same message on the other 2 related crosses (big move on GBPUSD over night!).

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Not sure why so sudden and big a move over night, re GBP, with rate decision today, does someone know something? admittedly BOE unlikely to do anything but there is often ***** in the detail.

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Come on, I should not be getting **** for using the word  d e v i l  in the phrase **** in the detail. It makes me look like I'm swearing like a trooper.

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LOL!  Corporate nonsense!  It's not like we are actually IG employees FFS!  As long as no one is being actually abusive who cares about a bit of so-called bad language?  I mean just for fun right!

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I suspect it is more a case of price being held up for some reason but the market really wanted to do the same thing as the Euro and just went a bit later.  This is a good example of why I'm not that bothered about data releases, except to manage immediate volatility.  That is not to say that certain events don't trigger a reaction, even a change in direction, just that these things are usually "known" via rumour so the market has already taken a lot of the events into account by the time the actually occur.  There are few real surprises with policy decisions because it causes such outrage, the Swiss Franc peg vs the Euro being one that illustrates the point, so I think that policy direction is slowly leaked ahead of announcements to soften the ground.

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Language doesn't worry me, though it is clear that people are becoming less and less tolerant and ever increasingly more easily offended. But the repeated ****  makes me look like I'm suggesting something when I'm not. We have been asked to report over zealous auto  ****ing. I'll have to start a list.

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