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Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

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To me, Bitcoin has to not only cross the $11,700 level but stay above it. If it can achieve that then let the games begin.

 

At the moment, Bitcoin is showing some immense resilience bearing in mind the large negative media coverage it has had and is still getting. 

 

Since the last major drop / correction there has been a change in Bitcoin's price behaviour. It is slowly creeping upwards but consolidating more frequently. The 4  hour chart shows this nicely. This is unlike the parabolic rise it saw prior to the December 2017 all time high. This is actually very good for Bitcoin long term. It means the volatility which is still there may well start to decline going forwards to avoid such big moves upwards and such big drops / corrections.

 

As liquidity increases and the market matures then the price behaviour of Bitcoin may become more stable if that is a word that I can apply. For me any drop below the $9,400 level would be worrying. 

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It’s certainly very range bound. Would be good to get an experts opinion on the price action, but I feel it’s coiling for a move up after this consolidation...

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Bitcoin really hating that 10k level but hopefully a bit of buzz around consensys for ETH (around 7000 confirmed going this year whilst last I think it was maybe 2?!) and an early rally next week will push that up hopefully.

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Facebook have apparently reversed their ban on Cryptocurrency Ads but have maintained their ban on ICO's.

It will be interesting to see how the price of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies react to this news.

India's stance on Cryptocurrencies is also very interesting. If they were to relax their stance then the price behaviour of Cryptocurrencies should be positive. 

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@rimmy2000, I think digital currencies and cryptocurrencies are the future. Blockchain which is the technology underpinning cryptocurrencies is the future. The utter garbage crypto's will fail and absolutely go to zero and so they should. Only the strongest will survive. Will this be Bitcoin? I don't know the answer but I think Bitcoin is the original 'grandfather' of cryptocurrencies and the first one to go mainstream with the biggest market cap so I think it has to survive in some form as otherwise the market will lose confidence in the entire project of decentralisation. 

If one puts into perspective that Bitcoin is still up from what the price was 12 months ago regardless of the 70% drop from its December highs. If you bought Bitcoin when the price was $2000.00 then you would still have a very health profit over a 12 month time frame.

I think this correction was necessary and it may drop further before any monster move upwards. If there is a monster move upwards then it is the institutions that join the journey that will make it happen and they will want to get in at the lower end. 

I have an open mind on cryptocurrencies and its future and will let the price action tell me the story rather than the utter rubbish that is published in certain media publications. One must ignore 'market noise'. 

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12 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

Just to add on from my previous post, Blackrock, are a monster in the ETF market.

with $6.3 trillion ... with a 'T' ... this made the IG EMEA brief. Potentially interesting developments. Further to this, something which i think is even more interesting is Coinbase has a green light to list coins deemed as securities. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-16/coinbase-says-it-has-green-light-to-list-coins-deemed-securities

 

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@JamesIG, thanks for this. I accept the traction has been slower than envisaged but real momentum is now picking up from potential ETF's to hit the market, regulations and clarification in different jurisdictions and retail investors showing real interest.

 

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Bitcoin is leading the charge as I write this. $7272.50 has been hit and it is currently 8%+ up. 

The question is whether this price behaviour is a trend reversal or just another spike towards a continuation of a downward move which has been in play since January 2018?

Trend strength will be key but for me until this clears $10,000 which is the psychological number crypto traders are waiting for then huge amounts of capital will not flow back into Bitcoin. 

 

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Bitcoin has retaken 50 day moving average for the first time since around May 2018. T

his is a positive sign from a trend followers perspective. Is this move really because of the Blackrock media? I just simply do not know. It could be.

I think Bitcoin will try and have a go at the $7900 area. There will be resistance but this could represent a short term bearish to bullish change in trend. 

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I have just noticed that as Bitcoin's price goes 'red', Gold's price goes 'blue' at time of writing which is 21:12. 

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$8,044.20 hit.

Bitcoin is going up, Gold is going down. 

For me until Bitcoin crosses and stays above the $9760.00 area a downtrend is still in play over a longer time horizon. This could still be the spike before the next leg down. 

If $11,440.00 area is crossed then it becomes very interesting as there could be a monster move coming to the upside. 

 

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All things becoming increasingly tied to the Chinese market it seems, now bitcoin. Following on from your post in the Trump trade war tread @TrendFollower a very interesting article from Moneyweek including a comparison chart of Bitcoin and the Shanghai index.

https://moneyweek.com/bitcoin-price-bounce-can-it-continue/

In the chart below we see the bitcoin price in black and the Shanghai Composite index in red over the course of this year. You can see the two have traded almost in lockstep, with bitcoin leading slightly.

bc1.PNG.954d0944a1bb9da80e48f4e10fb5dccf.PNG

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@Caseynotes, thanks for this. Very interesting.

I think there is big money in the US on the sidelines waiting for more clearer regulations in certain states. 

 

 

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Bitcoin is at an important juncture right now. Bitcoin has the potential to have a very positive price action from September to December period.

The question many are asking has Bitcoin bottomed out. I personally don't know. It could go down to $5,000 levels or even lower to $3000 levels if further negative news is released into the market. 

From a technical perspective it seems to be holding above $6000 rather well. In my personal opinion any break above the July high of $8507 may confirm a bullish reversal but whether this happens or not who knows.

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On Bitcoin that was a nice power surge through stubborn resistance at 7099.7 which was later used as support, presently retesting the recent high.

84432736_BTCUSD()H1.thumb.png.e5a0ab389bea80cf07e7980404f819b9.png

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Quite an extraordinary battle being played out over the 7400 level.

Very large volumes and a huge surge in shorts this morning looks like overwhelming the bulls.

bcsl2.thumb.PNG.11be93b054b547a374b528ebc422a866.PNG

bc1.thumb.PNG.6fac26c9f8526fbaaf200d1c94cbcbf4.PNG

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@TrendFollower it's holding for now as the last couple of hourly bars have pushed higher though there is still considerable resistance immediately ahead in the form of the descending trendline that defeated the last attempt to break higher.

814782960_BTCUSD()H1.thumb.png.500719faa9f43ce865a6507137ad6163.png1958785973_BTCUSD()Daily.thumb.png.630bb101f37ab3f444eef9df17aa01f1.png

 

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