Jump to content

Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

Recommended Posts

There are two things which one must consider that is happening in relation to the Bitcoin price behaviour and Crypto's in general available on IG's platform.

One is that a bottom has been confirmed and we are witnessing the beginning of an upward trend. 

The second is that this is just like all the previous rallies that we have witnessed over the past 12 months and is the relief 'sucker' rally which will then lead to a new low or at the very least test the all time low. 

Lots of different experts are suggesting different things and I have no idea who is right or who is wrong. I cannot simply rely on the online media community and publications to make a judgement or informed trading decision. Therefore I must use technical indicators to help me establish if new higher lows and new higher highs are being formed. I need to satisfy myself that a trend reversal has been confirmed. I need to use the moving averages to tell me whether a trend is in play. I need to look at the strength of the trend and momentum to tell me whether this is genuinely bullish or just plain old bull poo. 

Even if it is the start of a bull move and I miss out by not getting in near the bottom then as someone who follows trend following principles that is fine. It is about catching the bulk of the move in the middle so right now it is too early to enter the Crypto and Bitcoin trade on the 'long' side unless you are merely speculating, gambling, hoping or of course you are a short term trader or day trader which is actually then fine to trade Bitcoin and Cryptos on the long side. 

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin is holding up rather well. If Bitcoin was to surpass the $4200.00 level then I think I would have to consider manually intervening and possibly closing my short. I still think the $6500.00 level is the crucial price point which will confirm a trend reversal. 

I have just quickly whipped up a chart with some illustrations as there are times when a visual message can say more things than lots of words. I have tried to keep the chart, SIMPLE, CLEAR and STRAIGHTFORWARD (SCS).

Bitcoin_20190223_10_27.thumb.png.3ba2ce8cc6fabd7becf575b22f6404c7.png

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin has crossed that psychological $4000.00 mark and hit $4151.70. If it can cross $4200.00 then things are really going to start getting interesting as the bulk of the downside has been done. Yes there could be a new low and we may see $2000 or so but the large chunk of the downside activity has occurred in my personal opinion. 

For me now going forwards the key is whether Bitcoin surpasses the $4200 level and stays above it. If it does then it is going to target at some point in 2019 the $6500.00 level. The price action will now either validate my assumption by its price behaviour or invalidate it. 

Share this post


Link to post

I have mentioned this before but the weekend does encounter major moves in Cryptocurrencies when they are trending up. I noticed this a couple of years ago. I had to keep my positions open on Friday as otherwise I would have missed some major gains. This is an extremely high risk strategy so I would not encourage anyone to do this but I did this in all my madness but reaped the rewards with some excellent returns. 

Very high risk and dangerous but for the serious Cryptocurrency traders it is worth bearing in mind when they are trending up strongly. 

Share this post


Link to post

Volume picked up around 12h ago but now starting to disappear...

Share this post


Link to post

@akatyk,

Bitcoin hit $4207.10 overnight. I now want to see how Bitcoin's price behaves. Does it go for an aggressive move towards $6500.00 with a few small corrections along the way or will it be slow and steady rising?

It is difficult not to let past performance cloud your judgement so most will be expecting Bitcoin to drop further based on historical trends over the past 12 months and more. My advice is just to trade the current price action with a stop loss in place. Trade the trend and exit when the trend reverses. If it does not then ride the trend until it reverses. 

Share this post


Link to post

My advice is unless you already have a position open, think twice about opening a new one :) I don't personally see any current opportunities, just previous ones playing out.

Share this post


Link to post

@akatyk,

You may be right but for those who opened when Bitcoin was trading in the $3000's have already made a nice profit. If you then add leverage to the mix then even more profit. 

One could have argued the same with US indices but they kept on going up and up and are still going up. Markets do not always conform to the emotions and principles that traders believe in. 

If you take personal opinions, beliefs and emotions out of the equation and base it purely on price action then Bitcoin and Crypto's have to be considered. If you feel that it is a relief rally or false breakout, then fine, your stop loss will allow you to exit either at a profit or small loss.

You are right you should absolutely think twice or even three times before opening a new position and next week will be an interesting week for Cryptos and a lot more will be revealed.

What is your basis for thinking that there are no current opportunities and you think only previous ones will play out? You may be right and I am not disagreeing with you but what is your basis for this? Is it just based on historical trends and price action? Is it history which is determining your view? If so then it would be so difficult to enter any trades if they had not performed as per historical notions. 

I am just offering a balanced view and a counter argument though I do understand and to a certain degree even agree with your assessment based on this specific moment in time.

My basis for not entering a new trade on Bitcoin would be due to the way the moving averages are sloping. For me they are not sloping upwards so I would wait until at least the 20 and 50 DMA were and the 100 DMA was either sideways or starting to slop upwards.

Litecoin is proving to be the most aggressive in its positive upward price action and its moving averages curves are sloping the most positive out of all the Cryptocurrencies that IG offers on its platforms at the moment. I am attaching the chart to illustrate this to the IG Community.

 

Litecoin_20190224_11_37.thumb.png.b9c6c173c3bad6124145e8427dc30fc0.png

Share this post


Link to post

Well Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies never fail to disappoint!

Normal service has resumed and a mammoth 300+ point drop in Bitcoin. EOS is down over 16% which tells me that it is speculators that are running the show on this asset class rather than real hardcore investors and investment firms. 

The question now is whether the big drop and the new low is coming which makes a good shorting opportunity or is this just a correction before the next upward leg resumes?

This asset class is as risky as they get. They make Commodity Trading look low risk! LOL

😀

 

Share this post


Link to post

More of the normal service is resuming with Bitcoin et al.

There is a lot of capital entering and flooding the Cryptocurrency market in anticipation of the next bull run. There will be plenty who will not want to miss out if this was to occur and hit several price points. If the price action supports the technicals then there is the possibility of lots of capital flooding this new asset class causing large daily price increases in not just Bitcoin but the other smaller Cryptos.

 

Share this post


Link to post

Unless Bitcoin can stay consistently above $4200 level then I fear that there may be another large drop coming and another new low looming.

Bitcoin needs some seriously positive news to begin a major bullish trend upwards. 

Share this post


Link to post

In some ways I just wish all the bad news about Bitcoin would come out and it just makes another new low and gets to the so called $1000 - $2000 level so that the whole asset class can move on, improve and start a major long term bull move. 

The momentum is still there when you read:

Warning: - Some of the articles may well contain bias. Also the credibility and accuracy could be questioned. Having stated this warning I do generally find that they are mostly correct and reported quicker than other sources. 

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin clearly has the largest market cap by a considerable distance. Ether and Ripple are both 2nd and 3rd and not really much between them. Stellar seems to be dropping down to the lower side of the top ten and EOS as emerged as a real competitor to both Ether and Ripple in terms of market cap.

I have attached the Cryptocurrency Market Cap link below:

https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

Share this post


Link to post

It seems normal service is resumed in Bitcoin and the other Cryptocurrencies offered by IG on its platform. This is also following a similar pattern that we have witnessed over the past 12 months and more. This pattern will change at some point but not until Bitcoin hits its bottom and then possibly hits it again to support any move upwards and confirm to the participants that the bottom is in place. 

Potential Trade Idea: 💡

This now represents a possible shorting opportunity. A good entry point for the short could be to go short on any days when Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies are going up. Using Oscillators may assist with any entry points. Ensure stop loss is in place and you know your exit price before entering the trade.

Disclaimer: The above is just a potential trade idea and it could be the wrong trade, there could be a strong upward move that means stop losses are triggered or generally a sharp trend reversal could occur.

Share this post


Link to post

I think the Crypto's are taking it in turns in having high performing days. Today it is Stellar. Yes it is Sunday but Stellar is up around 13% at the time of writing. Litecoin had a stellar week last week.

My prediction is that Ripple should have a stellar day tomorrow and this coming week. This is just based on lack of price action and activity compared to the others. It should have at least one to two days of positive large price gains in the next few days or so. 

Share this post


Link to post

Bitcoin just cannot stay above $4000 which is not a bullish signal to me.

It seems it will need a catalyst to get there but I am not sure what that could be. Bitcoin ETF news is rather quiet.

There are other Crypto's with faster transaction times. It seems to be slowly losing some of the 'edge' it once had.

Reputation alone will not get Bitcoin to move higher. There needs to be more substance. 

Share this post


Link to post

I have read several reports indicating that Bitcoin is in a strong consolidation period and the reports are inferring that this is prior to any move up. One could argue that the consolidation period may be prior to any move down.

There is no real trend to trade in Bitcoin at this moment in time. This could be a positive for Bitcoin as the volatility may be reducing and the wild swings and large moves up and down could be declining. 

Share this post


Link to post

There seems to be short term support at around $3800. It seems to be waiting for some form of news to help it move!

Share this post


Link to post

Tom Lee has suggesting that Bitcoin price is on verge of racing into bull market! When in 20 years time!!!

His recent 12 month predictions have all been out. That is not to say this one will be wrong but his track record is not great.

I have attached the article for your perusal. 

Tom Lee: Bitcoin Price on Verge of Racing into Bull Market

https://www.ccn.com/tom-lee-bitcoin-price-on-verge-of-racing-into-bull-market

Share this post


Link to post

Here is another twist to Tom Lee's mystical prediction powers.

Bitcoin Price Breakout Scheduled for August, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-breakout-scheduled-for-august-says-fundstrats-tom-lee

Let the price action determine your trading decisions. Use technical indicators or what ever analysis whether technical, fundamental or both to assist you in making an effective trading decision rather than this 'market noise'. 

Share this post


Link to post

Your content will need to be approved by a moderator

Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • IG ISA Season

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      6,371
    • Total Posts
      28,278
    • Total Members
      37,101
    Newest Member
    lulub2000
    Joined 18/03/19 16:55
  • Our picks

    • Flowless rally - APAC brief 18 Mar
      A flowless rally: It’s being dubbed the “flowless rally”. Equities are ticking higher, but without the fundamental buying-support one might assume. This is especially so when considering the milestone achieved on Wall Street on Friday. Finally, the 2815 resistance level has tumbled, and the bulls have cautiously, quietly rejoiced. There are yellow flags popping up here and there, however, and that is making participants wary. It goes back to this “flowless rally” business: the latest leg of global stocks big recovery isn’t being supported by investor flows. In fact, investor flows look to have diminished somewhat. The reasoning behind this move is somewhat speculative. The impact of share buybacks is one popular argument. Whatever the cause, confidence isn’t accompanying this rally.


      Economic conditions deteriorating: Maybe market participants are still scorned from the market correction in 2018. A bitterness and cynicism stemming from that is understandable. Much of the frustration comes, it would seem, from a widespread recognition that this rally has come in the absence of solid fundamentals. On the contrary, if looking at the macro-outlook, there are more reasons to be bearish than bullish right now. Global growth is (almost) irrefutably slowing, and some of the geopolitical sore-points dictating sentiment, like Brexit and the US-China trade war, are showing little new signs of progress. A major factor keeping this rally alive in riskier assets, perhaps concerningly, is a little case of “fear of missing out”.
      • 0 replies
×