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Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

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It looks like the sell off was rather short lived. It is 5:00 am UK time on Monday morning and Bitcoin is around the $9267 level. It seems to be holding up rather well as it low overnight was around $8901 level. 

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@elle,

Thanks for this. Interesting ‘Support and Resistance’ viewing.

I still think Bitcoin needs to hit $11.5k level from a ‘daily’ chart perspective for any downtrend in play to be overridden. 

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It seems Bitcoin is leading the way not only over this weekend but today in terms of price action.

It is making new highs for the day and just hit $9338.20. 

  • Great! 1

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I wanted to take this opportunity to share this which is from the website CCN but the source is the Wall Street Journal. This graph highlights Bitcoin's performance and percentage returns based on hard facts and evidence.

Wall Street Journal

Bitcoin is leaving other asset classes in the dust. | Source: Wall Street Journal

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Guest evelynharper

DjHvz_CXoAAwOX6.jpg

Because there was no reason for it to rise in the first place. It’s totally worthless. And oddly enough, the more expensive it gets, the more worthless it becomes, because at these prices it’s riskier to use it for actual transactions, and the more people use it, the less reliable it becomes transactions take a long time to complete, get dropped entirely, big bid-offer spread, etc.

It only went up because people expected it to go up further — they were buying it on what’s called the greater fool theory — that even though they’re foolish to buy it, there will be someone even more foolish who will buy it from them at a higher price some day. When that person failed to materialize, they started selling.

If you want to understand Bitcoin, you should read the book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Although written about 180 years ago, it’s still a marvelous explanation of human character. Read just the chapter on the South Sea Bubble. Sir Isaac Newton, a pretty smart guy, lost 20,000 pounds in that affair. “I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men,” he said.

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Guest evelynharper,

For a trader they want to see strong movement in price going in a direction and then simply trade that and profit. It does not matter if it is Bitcoin, Corn, FX pair, Dow Jones or an individual stock or a Bond. One must not get emotionally attached or let their personal views cloud their trading judgement. 

Bitcoin is the best performing asset this calendar year. It is one of the best performing assets since its inception in 2009 to date. Traders should just trade it and profit. When the trend reverses because people are selling or because it is so called junk or garbage, just merely short it and profit on the way down. 

Now there was a reason why Bitcoin was formed. I would suggest you read up on the history of how Bitcoin originated. Hint: You may come across the word 'decentralised'. 

I also know some fantastic books on Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain but I feel you already have a biased view towards Bitcoin so have made up your mind. How many actual books have you read on Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency or Blockchain? There is a lot of journalists and non journalists writing about this subject area without simply having the knowledge or intelligence to really understand the subject matter or appreciate what we are seeing right now. The media can be very dangerous in that it can print articles which may not be factually correct or supported by any evidence but the readers will just believe what they are reading. Their views will be formed by what they read. It will make sense to them. The media is very dangerous indeed. 

On the last bull move when Bitcoin went to $20000 it was being compared to the Tulip bubble. Well the Tulip bubble did not crash and then exceed the highest bubble point. Bitcoin could do just this if it continues. I would compare Bitcoin more to the 'Dot Com' era rather than Tulip mania. Just look at Amazon's story. Bitcoin simply got ahead of itself. Ask this question. Why are the likes of Fidelity, Facebook, et al all getting involved in this space?

There is a digital revolution coming. 

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Bitcoin's price has popped and it has just hit at 9:00 pm UK time around $9580.70. 

TrendFollower Predicton - Bitcoin will hit $10,000 imminently. 

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Within 7 minutes of my previous post Bitcoin has hit $9610.20. This is exploding to $10k very soon indeed. 

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Well Bitcoin's Price Behaviour is electric!

$9820.20 has been hit. The $10k level which in my opinion is going to open the flood gates will be critical. It is psychologically very important. There will be some form of large correction due as there is going to be plenty of profit taking, stop losses being triggered and potentially new shorts being opened thus amplifying the move downwards but then we may well see a run towards its all time high of around $20k. This may be a result of the fear of missing out FOMO. 

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I am predicting Bitcoin to hit $10,000 by the end of Saturday based on current momentum and trend strength. 

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16 hours ago (look at my previous post above) I predicted that £10k would be hit by the end of Saturday and that is exactly what has happened. In fact it happened before the morning UK time!

Bitcoin hit $10,944.50 overnight. Asia will have had a big part to play in this. 

Now we are going to see FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). This could take Bitcoin further upward to $11k and possibly even $12k before we see a major correction back to around $10k.

There will always be the fear of some serious profit taking, stop losses being triggered and new short positions being opened which could amplify the move downwards way below $10k. However, if the buying pressure is such and investors begin to HODL then the narrative could change and the large drop may not materialise until Bitcoin hits say $15k - $20k. I think it is perfectly feasible that Bitcoin makes a new all time high surpassing the $20k before its halving event in 2020 next year. 

Bitcoin is currently being supported by the following:

  • Price Action
  • Strong Upward Trend Strength
  • Volume
  • Momentum
  • Moving Averages Curves Sloping Upwards
  • Plus many more technical indicators

I am going to share the chart below where you will see Bitcoin's price is above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. Now just look at the curves. They are all sloping upwards which is an extremely bullish indicator. It signals that both the short term and longer term trend is strongly trending upwards. 

Bitcoin_20190622_10_23.png.9d93c981b2edae6ca899b8291d299204.png

Now look at the Parabolic SAR below:

Bitcoin_20190622_10_25.png.bc14bcd39f1c484c37a575ee0a308858.png

Now for those of you who are not familiar with the Parabolic SAR then during an uptrend the dots are below the price. Now as you can see from the chart above they are for Bitcoin. Now during a bearish trend these dots would be showing above the price. The Parabolic SAR indicator is signalling to use that Bitcoin (as if we did not know) is trending strongly upwards. 

Now just look at the 'Green' on the Momentum Chart in 2019 compared to the 'Red'. 

Bitcoin_20190622_10_28.png.758f34178470898b17dca93c43245f70.png

Just ensure if any large drop in Bitcoin comes then you have sound and effective risk management in place. Most traders will have large profits but many investors will have even larger profits. If these investors think that Bitcoin is going to go a lot higher and they do not sell and hold then Bitcoin has the potential to really go for $20k and a new all time high.

Correct me if I am wrong but the Tulip Mania did not have a bubble which crashed, then went above the all time high bubble price, did it? LOL. 😁

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Bitcoin has just hit $11,022.30. 

We still have the rest of today and then all of tomorrow. In my personal experience Bitcoin can make some of its biggest moves during weekend periods and this weekend is just an example to support my view. 

It is up over 10.72% just today.

From memory Bitcoin has had around 3-4 parabolic rallies like this. Can anyone name me another asset that has provide its investors and traders such phenomenal opportunities? Since the inception of Bitcoin the parabolic rallies have come every 2-3 years. What other asset has provided anything similar?

What you will now start getting is that Bitcoin is heading to the moon, or Bitcoin is going to hit $50,000, $100,000 or $1m. It will not anytime this year or even anytime during 2020. I can see Bitcoin hitting $20k and maybe possibly even exceeding it to make new all time highs before the halving event. How high will they be I do not know but I would be absolutely gobsmacked if Bitcoin hit $50k before the halving event. But this is Bitcoin so anything is possible and I have absolutely no idea how high the price could go. However once must keep focused and their feet on the ground and not get carried away with these ridiculous predictions. 

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The last time I saw this frenzy in Bitcoin was when there were tensions between US and North Korea.

I actually wrote at the time on IG Community in relation to that and the price behaviour of Bitcoin. I am now seeing similar activity and frenzy in Bitcoin when now there are US and Iran tensions. 

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Bitcoin is currently around $10,600 level. As long as it stays above $10k then $11k to $12k is a short term possibility. I was reading an article just this morning when the so called 'Crypto Experts' were suggesting that there is very little resistance between $12k to $20k. 

The profit potential is massive. However, the risk of a large correction is just as big. This is market is known for price dropping triggering lots of stop losses and then shooting back up again very quickly. 

This is high risk and not for the faint hearted but the rewards in my opinion are worth the risk if you have a sound risk management strategy and effective capital allocation strategy for this asset class. Do not trade more than you can afford to lose and certainly do not trade a high percentage of your trading capital unless you know exactly what you are doing and understand how the Crypto market operates.

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On ‎17‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 07:00, elle said:

Capture b1hr.PNG

 

Capture bitc.PNG

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There is a lot of volatility not just in Bitcoin but in Cryptos in general as traders decide how to play the start of trading on Monday morning. 

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It is 8:20 pm UK time on Sunday evening and Bitcoin has just $11k again. 

What is a strong possibility is that traders will start taking profits thinking Bitcoin is going to sell off but the upward move just continues and continues. 

 

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Monday morning 5:00 am UK time and Bitcoin is around $10.6k. I think it may consolidate around $10k and if it did then it would be extremely healthy. 

If reports are to be believed then 'Retail Investors' have not really entered Bitcoin like back in 2017 and also internet searches on Google is no where near the levels seen in 2017. It seems this rally is based on 'Institutional Investors'

Bitcoin's halving event occurs in May 2020 so we are still nearly 11 months away. If you look at historical patterns (no guarantee it will play out like that) then Bitcoin continues rising after the halving even before a large natural drop occurs. Therefore what we could witness is a year / year and a half of gains in Bitcoin which would take it easily above $20k based on current price action, strength of trend and momentum getting stronger as retail investors pile in and FOMO comes into play. 

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Bitcoin has hit $11369.90 and is looking strong right now. There will be lots of volatility so those with tight stop losses are going to get stopped out, there is no doubt about that. This is how Bitcoin has worked historically unless something new happens going forwards (which is possible). 

I do wonder how much US-Iran tensions are providing the backdrop for capital to shift as a safe haven play with Bitcoin? I see Gold and Bitcoin are both moving upwards together and the main driver could be (I don't know that it is) the US-Iran tensions. 

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On ‎23‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 15:14, elle said:

 

Capture bitc.PNG

Done :) 

Capture bitcoin vc.PNG

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I just came across this and thought it was rather interesting. One must take things with a pinch of salt as charts and figures can be presented to show what the messenger wants so one must be weary of this. Anyway it was interesting reading!

This One Chart Exposes Bitcoin's Nakedly Bullish Potential

https://www.ccn.com/op-ed/this-chart-exposes-naked-bitcoin-potential/2019/06/25/

Hint: This article mentions Gold too! 😁

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Posted (edited)

Bitcoin hit $12303.10 overnight. It is currently at 5:00 am UK time up around 800 points and around 7%. It is trading around the $12200 level. 

It is reported that there around 10 days in the year that if you did not hold Bitcoin then you would miss its best performance. The last few days will surely be included in that idea. 

I think exceeding its all time high of $20k is on the cards.

Not bad for a 'Bubble', 'Junk that is going to zero' or 'Garbage'.

Bring on more Tulip Mania's. They provide the best opportunities for traders to make money. If they use leverage then the profit potential is huge. 

Edited by TrendFollower
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Bitcoin really on fire but need really cautious approach its getting where it will love to destroy all the shorts 😀

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@mykig,

Bitcoin is extremely volatile. It can go up 1000 points or drop 1000 points in the space of a few hours.

Bitcoin has just hit $12962.70 so nearly $13k! It has since corrected back down to $12.k. 

The momentum is strong. The price action and trend is strong. The current move is being supported by volume. The moving averages have been blown out of the water. It is making new 52 weeks highs. 

It is a Trend Followers Dream. 

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On another thread which @cryptotraderstarted @wjw22 commented that Bitcoin is not money. Money is something that can be transferred or used in exchange for goods and services. Bitcoin (though not widely accepted - in fact miniscule acceptance at this stage compared to FIAT) can be exchanged for goods and services in certain places across the globe. 

They then go on to state that Bitcoin is not a store of value. These are just words. Since Bitcoin's inception in 2009 if you invested £1000 of your hard money into both Bitcoin and Gold then Bitcoin would have proved to be the better store of value than Gold. This is even after numerous 70% to 80% corrections! Bitcoin is not only the best performing asset in the whole world in 2019 but it is the better store of value since its inception. If @wjw22 has any evidence to support otherwise then please do provide. 

They then state Bitcoin is a Ponzi and a pyramid scheme. Again these are just words. The European Commission, UK Government and many large Government and corporations are looking at Cryptocurrencies and how it can be applied in certain jurisdictions across the globe. We are at a very early stage. These things take a lot of time. Evidence from a credible source needs to be provided to support such statements as otherwise they are just words which originate from bias, ego, stubbornness, etc. 

@cryptotrader, in case why you are wondering why I am not responding to your thread, it is because I want to avoid any aggressive discussions and arguments. We all have different levels of understanding and experience in this area. We all read different literature and research papers on this area. We all have different levels of knowledge in this area. Another reason is because I have done what you have a year or two ago in either this thread or the Blockchain Trilogy thread, cannot remember and it is pointless unless there are balanced arguments presented with credible evidence from credible sources. 

People first compared Bitcoin to the Tulip Mania. Now that it has blasted through that people are now comparing it to the Internet boom and bust. Why must we compare it to anything? The Bitcoin boom and bust and boom again could be new future being created without any copying of past historical incidents. Future performance does not have to be based on past historical performance. From time to time new history is created that is different from the past.

Bitcoin is a new asset and a new revolution which will create a new history and a new future. 

Now @cryptotrader your thread was about Bitcoin specifically based on your title. Not about Cryptocurrencies in general. Yes a lot of Cryptocurrencies are junk. If Bitcoin's store of value is laughable then its store of value performance in terms of protecting capital and increase the value of the capital is astonishing when compared to Gold in the same period of time since Bitcoin's inception. Someone is buying Bitcoin hence the price is going up. A normal person does not need buy one Bitcoin at $13000. They can buy a fraction of it using FIAT money. That is the beauty.

Countries like China and Russia want to end the US Dollar being the Reserve Currency. It is unlikely that the world will go back to the Gold standard. In this coming 'Digital Revolution' Bitcoin is one of the favourite to be groomed as the worlds first digital reserve currency which is not linked to any one specific country like the US. During US-North Korea, Bitcoin went up more than Gold. During US-Iran tensions, Bitcoin went up more than Gold. Therefore times are changing. People and countries do not want to store their money in something which can be manipulated by central governments and priced in US Dollars. Times are changing and power is shifting from the west to the east and countries like Japan have embraced Cryptocurrencies.

I respect the views of others but what tends to happen is that if someone is negative towards Bitcoin then they highlight the negative and do not offer a balanced argument. Likewise if someone is positive towards Bitcoin then they do not highlight the negatives. Even I am guilty of that. I accept there are negatives and flaws in Bitcoin and other Crypto's.  

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This is going to sound well out of left field........But Re; Bitcoin/Crypto.

It is not a widely known secret, but the Banks want to rid us of Paperless money and go Digital across the globe.  This will eventually lead to an RFID implant much like the digital chip in your ATM card.  However, all of your info will be stored on your chip.

Depending on what you believe re; info on the web, Conspiracy Theories etc., some liken this to the Mark of The ****.


So, keeping this short for fear as coming across as a Loon, be careful what you invest in re: Bitcoin.  We may all be inadvertently bringing in our very own Digital Slavery.  We're already being spied on by Google/Facebook etc.  GPS tagging, Permissions of Apps to access your phone.  Once they control your Finances too, we're screwed.


Some believe that Crypto is about freeing us from the Banks.  It's not hard to see the other side of who might have came up with the idea in the 1st place.

Will all this said, it's possible to assume that with the power of the Banks across the globe, then eventually Crypto WILL be the dominat currency.   However, before it becomes standardised, the value in the future may well be squashed as it becomes more regulated.

Happy Trading.  I'll leave this here. :D

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    • With the breakout of GBPUSD (would like to see a daily close above support there and ideally a breakout through the daily channel line) and EURUSD making up its mind about whether to breakout or not I look at the third pair in the Triad for clues.  My thesis is that when both of these markets rally it will be on USD weakness rather than intrinsic strength in either one BUT as GBP has been more depressed of later and with so much negativity around about GBP vs EUR the spring back relief rally will be stronger on GBP.  If right we should see EURGBP turn and drop fast and hard and continue to do so for at least as long as the primary pairs rally lasts. And that is what we have seen so far with what looks like an exhaustion overshoot of my daily chart channel line and drop back inside.  A drop away from this area is confirmatory of an exhaustion spike, and that is what we got.  There followed a small 1-2 retrace, relief rally, which retested the channel line but failed to break back though, and another small 1-2 before a short term channel (1H chart) break and failed retest and then we were off to the races. Recently there has been a consolidation in what could be a small pennant of another 1-2, probably the latter and then a fast break down from this formation to where we are now, testing the lower daily chart channel.  If I am right about a period of USD weakness then I would expect EUR to join the party soon and so we may see a relief rally off the daily channel lower line before a confirmed break. Worth watching the Triad to see how things progress over the coming days and during the Jackson hole panto.
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