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Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

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I am under no illusion that Bitcoin and the other alt coins will be driven up by speculators and then they will face a large 20% to 30% correction. This is the nature of the beast until volatility reduces which is the long term aim. I think the volatility will reduce in the years to come but it will take years. We are merely at the start of the journey.

Right now for me Bitcoin has got to stay above the $10k level and defend that and as long as it does that then I am bullish based on current price action and trends. 

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2 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

On another thread which @cryptotraderstarted @wjw22 commented that Bitcoin is not money. Money is something that can be transferred or used in exchange for goods and services.

To begin, money is more than that:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy

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@wjw22,

I understand what money is. It was a simplified statement. 

I would like to invite you to read the beginning of my blockchain trilogy thread and even my Bitcoin Digital Gold thread and then see what you think. If you still do not see any value in Bitcoin then that is fine. I have read my books, articles, research papers, etc. in relation to Crypto, Blockchain and Tokenisation.

Now I do not know what you have read (how credible it is) and how much you have read and understand this whole area but I accept everyone on the IG Community will have different levels of knowledge and appreciation on the subject area and therefore we will all have different views and opinions. 

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It will be interesting to see how deep this correction goes and at which price buyers emerge again.

The smart money would have been accumulating / adding to their Bitcoin 'Long' position on the way up and way before the recent parabolic rise Bitcoin just experienced. 

 

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Just now, TrendFollower said:

It will be interesting to see how deep this correction goes and at which price buyers emerge again.

The smart money would have been accumulating / adding to their Bitcoin 'Long' position on the way up and way before the recent parabolic rise Bitcoin just experienced. 

 

reversion seems to be settling around 12500 but could go either way at this point. Pretty parabolic move going in. Would be more on the side of taking a bit out then adding risk on.

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31 minutes ago, cryptotrader said:

reversion seems to be settling around 12500 but could go either way at this point. Pretty parabolic move going in. Would be more on the side of taking a bit out then adding risk on.

I feel the overall short term trend is still up (albeit taking a breath at the moment) - I have taken scalping trades on swings since last night but always aware of how far each swing is!.

Agree with Crytotrader  - there is quick profit here but as always...manage your risk and retain your capital.

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@FFS_Daytrader,

You may see a short term bounce depending on what timeframe you are viewing but this is Bitcoin and its volatility and price behaviour can wrong foot traders at times. It could go down further which it did to around $13336.20 but it is trading around $12177 at the time of writing this post. So one could say that it has seen a bounce. Will it decline further? It could do. I would like to see Bitcoin stay above $10k. This is the level Bitcoin must defend before its next parabolic move upwards.

A move below $10k would provide a bearish outlook and could entail further selling pressure. I think $20k and surpassing its all time high it the move traders are waiting for on the 'Long' side and this should happen this year in 2019. 2020 prior to the halving event could see further speculative capital drive Bitcoin even higher before an 80% drop comes which will provide another fantastic long term shorting opportunity. 

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7 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

@FFS_Daytrader,

You may see a short term bounce depending on what timeframe you are viewing but this is Bitcoin and its volatility and price behaviour can wrong foot traders at times. It could go down further which it did to around $13336.20 but it is trading around $12177 at the time of writing this post. So one could say that it has seen a bounce. Will it decline further? It could do. I would like to see Bitcoin stay above $10k. This is the level Bitcoin must defend before its next parabolic move upwards.

A move below $10k would provide a bearish outlook and could entail further selling pressure. I think $20k and surpassing its all time high it the move traders are waiting for on the 'Long' side and this should happen this year in 2019. 2020 prior to the halving event could see further speculative capital drive Bitcoin even higher before an 80% drop comes which will provide another fantastic long term shorting opportunity. 

It was a "small" bounce and now 11000 is next level to watch to go long - not shorting now as short covering may provide the upward swing on US open.

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@FFS_Daytrader,

I would be careful. If you do not want to go short then wait for the selling to finish before going long. Even if you are a short term trader using a shorter term timeframe wait for the trend to reverse and let market indicators signal to you that this is the case before thinking about going long.

If you already hold a position in Bitcoin then you may consider adding to your position on such drops. 

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No positions open now - took bounce for a small profit. My charts indicates support at 11,000 so that is my point to consider indicators for a long trade.

Thanks for your view - even at 11000, I manage risk/capital so can cover (worst case scenario) of a drop to zero.

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@FFS_Daytrader,

It seems your view of support at $11k was broken. It hit around $10.3k. My issue with support and resistance is that with an asset like Bitcoin which is extremely volatile that it will merely break through any support and resistance. I can understand using support and resistance for established assets but Bitcoin is anything but established yet. This will take a good few years and the volatility will need to substantially decrease.

Like I stated before, Bitcoin needs to defend the $10k level. For me if it can then it will show a sign of strength. This level will also attract a lot of buying due to the size of the correction we have all just witnessed. 

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Bitcoin seems to be back at around $11k this morning at 5:00 am UK time. 

  • The chart below shows how Bitcoin is still trading strongly above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's. 
  • The MA curves are all sloping upwards. This is a very bullish indicator. 
  • Bitcoin would have to drop to around the $9.5k to go below its 20 DMA. 

Bitcoin_20190628_05_26.png.e8a253d8383c2bd60c220ee8fb8b27ff.png

So for me Bitcoin must defend the $10k level but the lowest it could drop is around the $9.5k level or remain above its 20 DMA. If this is breached then there could be a deeper correction. 

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9 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

My issue with support and resistance is that with an asset like Bitcoin which is extremely volatile that it will merely break through any support and resistance.

This is just wrong, S/R works for any asset on multiple time frames, the question is what is meant by 'work'. S/R can not tell 'who' will win any particular battle, it can only show 'where' that battle is most likely to take place.

Support and resistance will just as often break as not, big traders use S/R to find like minded types to help turn price, small traders use S/R to know where to look for a battle and the chance to ride on the victor's coat tails to the next battle, whichever direction that may be.

Plotting S/R levels can only be done on Bar or Candle charts that show the price action wicks and can't be drawn on a Line chart which don't.

image.thumb.png.dab1666426ab43e6763e0f24018b5217.png

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

This is just wrong, S/R works for any asset on multiple time frames, the question is what is meant by 'work'. S/R can not tell 'who' will win any particular battle, it can only show 'where' that battle is most likely to take place.

Support and resistance will just as often break as not, big traders use S/R to find like minded types to help turn price, small traders use S/R to know where to look for a battle and the chance to ride on the victor's coat tails to the next battle, whichever direction that may be.

Plotting S/R levels can only be done on Bar or Candle charts that show the price action wicks and can't be drawn on a Line chart which don't.

image.thumb.png.dab1666426ab43e6763e0f24018b5217.png

 

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

This is just wrong, S/R works for any asset on multiple time frames, the question is what is meant by 'work'. S/R can not tell 'who' will win any particular battle, it can only show 'where' that battle is most likely to take place.

Support and resistance will just as often break as not, big traders use S/R to find like minded types to help turn price, small traders use S/R to know where to look for a battle and the chance to ride on the victor's coat tails to the next battle, whichever direction that may be.

Plotting S/R levels can only be done on Bar or Candle charts that show the price action wicks and can't be drawn on a Line chart which don't.

image.thumb.png.dab1666426ab43e6763e0f24018b5217.png

Both you and Trendfollwere are correct to a certain extent and each trader must use the system which is "best suited" to them.

My charts indicated 11000 is next level to watch to go long, not necessarily to act on. Yes it got broken and thats the area (IMAO) to look at placing a trade. So now an in trade and in profit - i like to trade volatility but this roller coaster is not for everybody.

I enjoy the diverse opinions on this forum (remember there is no right or wrong...only opinions); please keep the views coming as it helps us all to be better traders no matter what system we use.

Edited by FFS_Daytrader

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18 minutes ago, FFS_Daytrader said:

My charts indicated 11000 is next level to watch to go long, not necessarily to act on.

Sooo, BTC does respond to support and resistance levels then?

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@FFS_Daytrader,

No problem. Thanks. 

Most traders will have a unique trading system designed for their personality, risk tolerance and ambitions. You are exactly right. We share our opinions and thoughts. It may be right for some and wrong for others.

I agree having such diverse views can help all of us including myself become even better traders. No trader knows everything and no trader has experienced everything.

What I would advise you is to really be passionate about any asset you are interested in. So if you have that enthusiasm for trading Bitcoin then I would highly recommend reading about the subject area. Conduct some fundamental analysis of Bitcoin. Understand how it works what it was intended for. Try and understand how it works and get a strong appreciation of Blockchain technology which underpins Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies. Try and research real use cases announced by large organisations and see if you can appreciate these and think these in years to come could be applied by other organisations. 

If you can then link real time information released by the media to the real time price action and technicals then it will really help you to understand why the price of Bitcoin is behaving the way it is. It is still largely driven by news released online by the media. It is controlled by a larger degree by the 'whales'. They move the price not the small Crypto investor. High Net Worth investors are investing in Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust. Just have a look at the latest news relating to Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust. 

Also try and understand what Bitcoin's limitations are and what is currently being worked on to overcome those limitations. So to give you one simple example, transaction processing times and ability to handle large volume of transactions. Others such as Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash have slight advantages on Bitcoin in some areas. Bitcoin with its first mover advantage and clout can overcome these but one must remember that others are not standing still and they are looking to improve too. 

When you combine positive / negative news flow and fundamentals to technicals you begin to see how and why the price trends emerge both up and down. This can be very useful when looking at momentum and how to trade Bitcoin in terms of directional sense. 

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@FFS_Daytrader,

Bitcoin seems to be trading in the $11k - $12k range at the moment. It is around $11.5k at the time of writing this post. I think any consolation and 'breather' will be extremely healthy for Bitcoin as the mania has not even started yet. 

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Posted (edited)

For me i'm short, that last move being the top at 13,849.74, being the end of the wave 5 of 1.

Now an A,B,C correction is in place, weekly pivot point is at 9,500 and that should draw btc down like a magnet, i'll close my shorts at that level and then reverse trade it off from that level for sure, and then reevaluate the using fibs and elliott waves.

Edited by PJ19
spelling error

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These are my pullback levels

9,755.37   (38.2%)

9,500         (pivot-weekly)

8,489.70   (50%)

7,224.03   (61.8%)

Hopefully price should find support at the above extreme.
__________________________________________

Should we start to break down then here's my key support levels that i see 

5,422.06   (78.6%)
4,917.94   (83.3%)


Personally i tend to favour the 78.6%-83.3% retracement zone, especially based on my own experience relative to the initial/1st move up off the lows

btc.30.06.19.Capture.JPG

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Last one was a bit blurred, lets see how this one loads and looks likebtc_30_06_19.Capture.thumb.PNG.89f6551cbe32ded1b1b3d2f73def4e8e.PNG

 

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13 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

@PJ19,

Do let us know if your 'Fibonacci and Elliot Waves' works with Bitcoin or other Cryptocurrencies. 

In general i've found that crypto trade way different to fx and the like. That said, elliott waves as well as fibs work with btc. On the first move the 78.6 as well as the 83.3 are normally hit, the odd time you have price back at the 90%.

On this way down, and moving the retracement to new lows as it goes, then the 23.6 as well as the 38.2 offers points of interest to add to shorts.

If price break below 11,321.37 level, then it looks like 9,755.37 is next, and the move could be quick.

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@PJ19,

I personally cannot see Bitcoin going back to the $4k to $5k levels anytime this year in 2019. In my opinion it is not a given that Fibonacci retracements will be adhered to or followed. It is not an obligation. I think the most it will fall is back down to $9k to $10k. It is being suggested that Bitcoin will consolidate between $10k to $14k before the next move upwards. That next move upwards is going to go towards an all time high and $20k plus. 

If the market allows Bitcoin to fall too heavily then it risks allowing the market and participants to lose confidence in the asset. I do not think the whales and large institutions getting involved will allow this to happen. I think Bitcoin will see wild swings and it will be extremely volatile with any tight stop losses being executed. 

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Same here, but it must always be considered, and thus prepared for any such move.

I would say the opposite, the big money prefer lower prices, and given that btc can be heavily shorted, it's not outwith expectation for this to happen.

I'd like to see the 9,500 area holding personally, but at worst case the 7,650 area, and at that area i'd have buy orders in place. 

A breach of that then we're heading much lower, let's hope not, as it would indeed re-test the recent lows.

11,321 now breached, so looks like down to the 9,755 zone, i've orders at the 9,500, as btc likes to run such levels

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FYI, if  you change the pivot points to a monthly setting, those are real key levels, it has found resistance at the R3, tested the R2 a few times, and has just sliced through that (as i had mentioned earlier noted above), so sub 10k for support at  R1, and i would think a bounce from there.

Ultimate entry point at 'Pivot' around the 7,650.

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@PJ19,

Crypto's taking a tumbling which was expected. There will be a lot of profit taking as on traditional assets this has to be down before market closed on Friday in the time zone they are operating in. Cryptos offer a 7 day a week and 24 hour trading so selling can occur over the weekend. 

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@PJ19,

If you look at the Pivot Points on the 'daily' then you will see a potential $10.5k price coming should this aggressive downward price action continue. 

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