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Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

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Bitcoin is still trading around the $11.5k level after the weekend so it is showing some robustness.

It has still not crashed downwards to $8k or even $6k like some have suggested. It really has not gone below the $10k critical level for any significant period and where it has, it is quickly bounced back above it. So what does this mean? To me it means a steady period of consolidation which is very healthy for Bitcoin after its parabolic rise. This is not a bad thing at all. Corrections are inevitable. 

I personally think it will take another piece of positive news to push Bitcoin higher and it will need a strong catalyst. Bitcoin will need to be news driven for any the speculative capital and herd to come in with FOMO taking effect for it to hit $20k levels.

All I would say is just be weary of the online media, friends / relatives with very little knowledge or understanding as they can influence your thinking and have an impact on your emotions when it comes to Bitcoin and the Cryptocurrency asset class. This in turn can have an impact on whether you trade the price action for Bitcoin or not. 

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Bitcoin seems to be rallying at the moment and the other altcoins seem to be following suit. 

Bitcoin at $11.8k. Trying to go for $12k.

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I was just reading an article which states that famous investor - Mark Mobius - would consider buying Bitcoin if it continued its getting stronger. This is a great endorsement from a great investor. 

Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range over the past few days and so there is the potential of a breakout to the upside as we all know Bitcoin cannot stay quiet for too long when it is in a bullish mood.

Also in the past when Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range it tends to behave rather flamboyantly shortly after. The issue here is in which direction Bitcoin could breakout.

There are valid arguments for both breaking out upwards and breaking out downwards. Based on current trend strength and momentum I would slightly favour a move upwards and the odds and probability will be in favour of a move upwards. However, this does not mean it cannot go down so one needs to look at Bitcoin's price behaviour closely to see if there are any clues which could give an indication on its next directional move. 

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Carrying on from my previous post yesterday it seems a breakout is materialising. Looking at the 'daily' timeframe I think the possible clue is that Bitcoin may head towards around the $17k level with a consolidation / pause for breath before going for $20k and above making new highs. It first has to surpass $14k and $15k but if it can then I think there will be very strong momentum and support for Bitcoin to make new highs. 

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Well Bitcoin hit $13174.30 and up it continues. I could be wrong but capital may be flowing into Bitcoin with the US involved in tensions with Iran and the US Fed toying with interest rates and all the other negative drivers pushing capital into the modern safe haven of Bitcoin. I read somewhere yesterday that Bitcoin was one of the best hedges against the US Dollar and the current monetary system. I am not sure whether I believe that to be the case right now but it certainly has the potential to be in the next ten years or so.  

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Posted (edited)

Equities, Gold and Bitcoin going up right now.

Nice to see they can all be friends!😀

Edited by TrendFollower

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How a difference an hour can make!

Bitcoin along with its friends are all dropping heavily. This type of price behaviour is pretty normal in Cryptocurrencies for those who have experience trading them. They will appreciate this more so than those who do not trade Cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is still above $12k for now. 

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Bitcoin managed to defend the $12k level for now. Overnight in Asia should be interesting. 

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Well Bitcoin went down to $11.1k. 

It has managed to defend $11k which is still pretty positive but what we do not know is what will happen for the next couple of days. 

For me $10k level is still a key support level and a psychologically important price point.

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Bitcoin just hit $11053.90. It seems to have buyers at this level for now as it back up to $11250 level. How long $11k will hold is debatable. On current short term price action there is a strong possibility $11k is breached which means the bears will target $10k for sure. 

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Bitcoin's price is currently around the $11.6k level. It hit $11.9k overnight. It seems to have found support above the $11k level for now. 

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Bitcoin is still remarkably above the recent low of $10295.00 which is pretty remarkable.

For how long I do not know as $10k is being tested to the limit right now. If it breaks then I do fear a more deeper correction but if it holds then it is going to set up Bitcoin for another go above $14k. That is how I see it right now but my view can and most probably will change as the price behaviour in the coming few days will show us the narrative that it wants to perform. 

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It is these precise sharp price increases and these sharp and quick price declines and obscene levels of volatility that put a lot of traders and investors off Bitcoin. Until this changes the same level of extreme volatility will exist. 

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I try and ignore 'market noise' though I admit I am guilty of reading it. Maybe I should not read it but I certainly try my best to base my trading decisions based on price action rather online media content. 

Just today I have read some reports agreeing with Trump's comments on Bitcoin. I have also read some comments stating that the mere fact that a US President mentioned Bitcoin is positive in itself as you just cannot beat that level of free publicity. Also it is that the US is fearful of the potential that Crypto's like Bitcoin could challenge the US Dollar in years to come.

I have read reports suggesting that this may be the last time we may see Bitcoin at lower than $10k levels and other reports suggesting that Bitcoin could go down to $9k and even $8k.

Bitcoin's price behaviour is extremely volatile. In fact I cannot recall any commodity that I have traded and I include Natural Gas and Crude Oil that has demonstrated more extreme volatility than Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin is proving to be the 'King of Volatility' and this presents great shorting opportunities both on the 'long' side and 'short' side. It is 'price volatility' that creates great trading opportunities. 

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Today Bitcoin has traded within the $9.8k to $10.9k rang which is over 1000 points.

From a trading perspective especially for day traders and very short term traders this presents a fantastic trading opportunity as if you add leverage and trade in the direction of the short term move in Bitcoin then profits are there to be made. It will be extremely difficult of course as the intraday volatility is extreme to say the least. 

I am sure some of you may be 'scalping'. 

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Bitcoin has gone down below $10k which for me was the critical price point.

This price behaviour in itself will encourage more short positions to open and agressive short traders to add to their shorts thus amplifying the move downwards creating obscene levels of volatility.

This is because at some point there will be a short covering rally of gigantic proportions. 

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On 02/07/2019 at 09:10, cryptotrader said:

yeh i can imagine that there will be a pull back to around these levels. 

Shorting BTC FTW 😄 

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If you look at the 'daily' chart then anything above its 200 DMA on 'daily' chart is still bullish for Bitcoin. A break of below its 200 DMA would make me change my view as the price action would force me to do so. 

What we are seeing is a large and deep correction after an insane (best performing asset class) parabolic rally. As they say the shaper and higher the move upwards, the greater the fall. Even if you look at Fibonacci retracements and there is no legislation or rules that forces Bitcoin to act according to Fibonacci retracements but the potential of a decline down to $7k could be possible. I personally did not think we would see those levels but looking at the sheer strength and momentum then I simply cannot rule it out. 

This presents a great shorting opportunity for those who are not already shorting Bitcoin. The more experienced Crypto traders will make money on the way up and then make money on the way down. Therefore from a Crypto trading perspective it really does not matter if Bitcoin is trending upwards or downwards as they will be trying to trade in the direction of the trend rather than against it. 

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Just watch the mammoth 'short covering' rally that we are witnessing and that begins to unfold now.

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It is amazing what two hours can do. Well what do we have here? Maybe a short covering rally? I wonder!

As much as Bitcoin is unpredictable there are times when it is predictable as well. 

 

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My 'gut instincts' tell me that Bitcoin still has another big leg downwards followed by consolidation before any upward trending action can be resumed. Now my 'gut instincts' can be wrong but the price action and patterns leading to this decline are pushing me towards such thoughts.

The question for me personally is deciding when the optimum time to top up and add to my Bitcoin position is? I am not too concerned about getting in right at the bottom as I do not have a crystal ball and nor do I have access to the data, information and sheer speed that would allow me to add to my position at the bottom of this drop but now for me it is all about watching the price action, being patient and not letting my bullish bias cloud my judgement. I must try to ensure I do not make any emotional trading decisions. This is one of the hardest things for a trader and requires the utmost discipline in following their own rules. Yes at times rules must be broken but this should be rare and only for exceptional circumstances. 

Bitcoin's price behaviour is key to determining future trending direction. It will require some 'anticipation' and this will be tested no doubt by the price action. 

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Bitcoin is up over 9.2% right now and is at $10.6k. Even though historical theory will suggest this is a short covering rally, Bitcoin, is capable of blasting all the way up towards $11k such is its unpredictability due to its extreme volatility. Anything near the $12k mark would infer there is a possibility of a breakout towards new highs for 2019 but the downside risk still exists if it cannot surpass $12k. 

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There are a few traders who discuss 'Support and Resistance'. I tend to favour 'Psychological Resistance' and for me that is around the $10,000 price point for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently trading above this price point which is a positive but for how long I simply do not know.

I think what we have seen is a 'Short Squeeze'. This was inevitable and pretty much predicable apart from the exact timing of course! The question is whether the shorters will open new positions or add to their existing positions? Bitcoin shot up in the matter of minutes which was remarkable. In my personal opinion no amount of technical analysis would have allowed you to predict such extreme price action until AFTER Bitcoin's price has started to move upwards. 

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It is 6:00 pm UK time on Saturday 19th July 2019 and Bitcoin is touching distance from $11k. This is a resistance point that Bitcoin needs to surpass. I personally think it needs to surpass $12k based the 'daily' charts for it to have any chance of making a new high soon. 

Bitcoin is up 4% at the time of writing this post but Crypto's in general are on fire and guess what? It is Saturday, it is a weekend and I have started this several times in the past but Bitcoin seems to move sharply over weekends which catches a lot of people out who close their positions before the weekend.

 

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Silver made a parabolic rise towards $50 back in 2011. I am sure some of you will remember this.

I just zoomed out on the Silver 'weekly' chart and the similarities to Bitcoin's chart but in a shorter timescale were staggering. I include the Silver 'weekly' chart below.

2064278169_SpotSilver_20190722_22_19.png.03012087a637b0c3293525a29dafd429.png

The key difference is Bitcoin's recent price action compared to Silver's. 

Bitcoin_20190722_22_23.png.566034ad236fe8760385b7c7e771c767.png

Of course they are no where near the same but there are similarities if one wants to see them and looks closely. 

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EOS is up 2% at the moment and seems to have led the way upwards after a few days of declines. I want to see how Bitcoin reacts and whether it follows EOS's lead. 

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Posted (edited)

Bitcoin seemed to follow EOS and did indeed climb upwards as I anticipated was possible. 

It is currently up over 4% this morning and is back above the $10k price point which for me is psychologically important.

For those who are not in any long or short position on Bitcoin it is very tricky at the current price juncture. Bitcoin could easily begin another leg upwards in which case shorting would be very risky. Or simply it could continue going downwards (slow death style) making going long very risky. 

One must let the price action confirm a move in either direction so that anyone not in a position can take the trade in the direction Bitcoin is likely to move and continue in. One must not worry about getting into optimum or near perfect entry points of getting in right at the bottom on a long position or right at the top on a short position.

Edited by TrendFollower

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