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Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

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Bitcoin's price behaviour has turned bullish again. $10,199.10 has just been hit. I would love to see Bitcoin cross $12k - $14k and go towards its all time high.

I personally feel that Bitcoin is going to correct by around 80% after this current upward move (halving event) and when it does I would like to think I am smart enough to accumulate more physical Bitcoin. I have acquired physical Bitcoin as I think anything less than $10k is a bargain should Bitcoin surpass its all time high of around $20k. 

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Guest Jeff c

Hi team can anyone give me hope that oil will retract back to 51 as ive read alot on over production and the tripoli event and china but now with trumps carry on will it come back down?any takers please reply cheers trenfolloer sorry its in wrong section but im on phone and not sure how to get to oil section for your help

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17 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

Bitcoin's price behaviour has turned bullish again. $10,199.10 has just been hit. I would love to see Bitcoin cross $12k - $14k and go towards its all time high.

I personally feel that Bitcoin is going to correct by around 80% after this current upward move (halving event) and when it does I would like to think I am smart enough to accumulate more physical Bitcoin. I have acquired physical Bitcoin as I think anything less than $10k is a bargain should Bitcoin surpass its all time high of around $20k. 

i too think doubling my money is good. 

  • Great! 1

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@trade247,

Not just doubling your money but far bigger. Just look at the returns for Ether, Bitcoin Cash and co from January 1st 2020 to right now. The returns are staggering and just a mere 100% is not even close the returns that can be made on Crypto both on the 'long' side and the 'short' side. 

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I thought during this period of panic in world markets that risk assets would have dropped the most significantly. There are not many more riskier assets than Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in particular. Now though Bitcoin has dropped what is interesting is that it has gone down significantly more less than US indices and other major indices around the world. 

This could be Bitcoin playing catch up and is about to tank or it could be that it is witnessing stronger save haven attributes than previously which are coming into play.

If Bitcoin declines less than other major assets then it will be a positive and healthy sign for me. I am very intrigued in how Bitcoin's price behaves in a period of 'Risk Off'. 

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Bitcoin is actually holding up rather well when I look at the recent drop in Gold and other assets. Yes it has declined but not anywhere near the levels it should have compared to other assets.

I was just looking at the volatility of Bitcoin and read a report about how Oil is showing higher volatility than Bitcoin. Times are changing and Bitcoin at these unique and concerning times is still $8.5k speaks volumes. 

Yes Bitcoin could continue declining to $7k but equally it could be $15k by May 2020. Such is the unpredictability at the moment. The best thing a trader can do is monitor the price action and try and establish any directional movement which could manifest into a breakout and later a strong trend. There is no secret formula or equation apart from monitoring the price action (Following the tape). 

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Bitcoin is trading around $8.6k and we are now in March. So two months left before the halving event. 

I do wonder whether we will see Bitcoin not go up before the halving event but instead after the halving event? So people may begin selling Bitcoin prior to the halving event as the asset is not going up like they thought. Buyers then come in and drive the price upwards once these weak hands have sold and the price shoots up afterwards?

I don't know but it is certainly intriguing with a strong element of uncertainty. Even when using technical analysis there are many different scenarios that could play out. 

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The question for me now is whether the downside in relation to the Coronavirus has been played out? If so then I see a huge move coming for Bitcoin prior to the halving in May 2020. If there is more downside, Bitcoin could continue moving downwards for a few weeks yet or at least stay around the current range. 

I think Bitcoin has held up rather well considering how other assets performed which to me shows strength and resilience which other assets simply did not show. Just look at the volatility levels of Bitcoin in this same period compared to other assets and you will see the point I am making. 

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Bitcoin has hit $9.1k around 14 hours after my post above.

I think Bitcoin will have another go at $10k.  

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Posted (edited)

So as Bonds and Gold go up, stock markets around the world are tumbling downwards.

Bitcoin is however joining the upward brigade and is moving upwards behind Bonds and Gold. So there are signs of it behaving like a safe haven. 

Let me also add that during this current market turmoil what is less riskier mid caps / small caps or Bitcoin?

One could argue that Bitcoin is showing more robustness during this current carnage than large caps included in major world indices. 

So is Bitcoin right now really more riskier and more volatile than Stocks and Commodities? I am talking about right now and not how Bitcoin was behaving historically. 

Edited by TrendFollower

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I am now thinking whether Bitcoin is going to see a big move upwards with a strong solid foundation and a stronger trending upwards movement.

The key question I want answering is whether Bitcoin will now take out $11k and if it does then I think we could see a big move but if it cannot then I think it will be unlikely to make a new high prior to the May 2020 halving event. I have no idea how it could react after the halving event. Some have suggested that Bitcoin will flush out the weak holders by not rising as expected and then the big boys will come in after the halving event and drive the price upwards. I do not know if this is true so the price action will be interesting for the remaining of 2020. 

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Cryptocurrencies operate within the 7 days a week and 24 hours market which means you have to have one eye on them at all times, especially on weekends and Sundays!

Bitcoin is down 6% on Sunday afternoon and others are faring much worse. This latest move keeps in line with the longer term downtrend I have been referring to in previous posts. It also is going to shake out a lot of 'longs' and cause panic Monday morning. 

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If things continue as they are and the Coronavirus situation gets worse then Bitcoin could revisit the $3.8k to $4k price area.

Bitcoin is one of the highest risk assets so traders and investors should not try and be clever and go long or buy Bitcoin when it is trending so strongly downwards. I have not doubts that we will experience false breakouts and false rallies to entice both traders and investors but both investors and traders must remain disciplined. 

There is no other trade but the short trade right now across most assets apart from Bonds. 

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I called it yesterday evening that I saw Bitcoin revisiting the $3.8k price area as my post above and at the time Bitcoin was around the $6k level. 

Low and behold Bitcoin hit $3883.10 overnight. 

It has bounced back up to $5.6k at the time of writing this post but there is a view that Bitcoin fills around 90% of the gaps on CME. 

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This weekend will be very interesting for Bitcoin. Bitcoin can make rather strong moves over weekends. 

Will investors and traders see value and try and get their positions in before the May 2020 halving event?

Or will Bitcoin struggle along and then take a clear direction after the halving event? It is not a given that Bitcoin will shoot upwards before May 2020 and I remember what happened to Litecoin before its own halving event.

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I accept Bitcoin could fall further and it did touch $3883.10 during the carnage but it is currently trading at around $5.4k which to me shows some serious resilience compared to the likes of Silver (Precious and Industrial Metal). All I ask is for you to look at the charts for both Bitcoin and Silver and just see the price behaviour of both. Both went down but Silver went down far more. 

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So Bitcoin has reclaimed $6k and is at $6.2k at the time of writing this post. It sure seems to be like it is behaving like a safe haven regardless of whether it actually is or not. 

I accept what we could be experiencing is just merely a short covering rally / false breakout / fakeout or whatever you want to call it.  We have certainly seen a large bounce from the $3.8k low which was touched upon. So I would not be surprised to see another dip. 

If Bitcoin continues to go upwards now then for me it may be perceived as a 'form of insurance' against Coronavirus getting worse and major economies around the world throwing more money at the problem causing severe economic problems which cannot be contained down the road. 

Bitcoin = Potential / Possible form of INSURANCE against broken monetary policy

 

 

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I want to compare the price action of Gold this coming week against Bitcoin to see with all the bad news around the world which one behaves more like a safe haven this coming week. 

I shall start this experiment tomorrow with daily results to see how both Bitcoin and Gold's prices behave in the coming trading week (Monday to Friday) and see which one behaves more like a safe haven. 

PRICE BEHAVIOUR - BITCOIN vs GOLD - STARTS TOMORROW

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If people start moving from assets into cash then at some point cash will begin to lose its value. At that point Bitcoin will start to look very attractive. 

Bitcoin is one of the most riskiest assets around and if it is garbage, rubbish, junk and not a currency or safe haven then why on earth is it not crashing and burning to zero now? Any answer to this question can only be an assumption based answer as there is no evidence for any of us including myself to prove otherwise. 

What we can do is use the price action and price behaviour as evidence of what is happening but the reasons why may not be as clear cut.

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Below are the lowest prices for both Bitcoin and Gold at 7:00 am UK time on Monday 23rd March 2020.

 

BITCOIN - $5674.70

 

GOLD - $1482.58

 

Let us see where they both finish by say around Friday 5:00 pm UK time. I am intrigued as to how they both will behave in terms of price action. There is nothing like 'Following the Tape' and letting the price action rule our thoughts. 

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@TrendFollower,

 

After reading your opinions on Bitcoin, I get the impression you only buy real Bitcoins and not contracts. Is this the case? When I look at the margin requirement, there appears no advantage at all to trade Bitcoin over Indices.

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@HPbrand,

No not at all. I have recently bought physical Bitcoin via Coinbase but only to see how easy and simple it was. I have the app on my phone and a Crypto Wallet via Coinbase on my phone as well. I just wanted to see how easy it was. It is only a small amount of Bitcoin. 

I am investing in Bitcoin and Ether using XBT Provider One products. Have a look at my XBT Provider thread under 'Forums' and 'Cryptocurrency and Blockchain' or you can just search for it using the box and magnifying glass. I made these long term investments when Bitcoin was around $2000. 

I also trade Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Stellar and Ripple using IG's UK Spread Betting account both on the 'long' side and 'short' side over the past few years. 

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Below are the lowest prices for both Bitcoin and Gold at 7:00 am UK time on Tuesday 24rd March 2020.

 

BITCOIN - $6344.50

 

GOLD - $1551.50

 

Now the margin requirements are less on Gold than Bitcoin when you use IG's UK Spread Betting platform but if we work on £1.00 per point then you can see that Bitcoin has gone up by around 670 points and Gold has gone up by around 69 points. This is obviously a rough calculation and not exact but it gives you an idea of the picture I am trying to paint. 

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@TrendFollower.

I have thought about Bitcoin and looked into trading crypto. I have come to the conclusion it's not for me.I will stick with Indices. Wish you great fortune trading them!

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@HPbrand,

No worries. It is most certainly not for everyone. It is a high risk asset and very volatile.

I treat Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies just like any other asset when trading and when you look at the charts there are similarities.

As I trade on price action, I really don't care what the asset is. It could be Bitcoin, it could be Lean Hogs or even US indices. It does not matter to me because I am looking at the price action of the asset. 

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Below are the lowest prices for both Bitcoin and Gold on Wednesday 25th March 2020.

 

BITCOIN - $6475.40

 

GOLD - $1596.50

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Apologies for not updating yesterday's prices. I shall try and update two sets of prices today to see where both Bitcoin and Gold finish later on in the evening. It is not really a fair fight as Bitcoin will be available over the weekends where as Gold will not be. 

Below are the lowest prices for both Bitcoin and Gold on Friday 27th March 2020 at around 8:45 am. 

 

BITCOIN - $6616.10

 

GOLD - $1613.33

 

So we will see where both end up tonight and see which has performed better over this trading week. 

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So this weeks experience concludes. Below are the highest prices both Bitcoin and Gold touched today. 

 

BITCOIN - $6703.90

 

GOLD - $1625.75

 

So over the week Bitcoin went up around 1029.20 points. Gold went up around 143.17 points.

Over the course of the week when the world was in turmoil in relation to Coronavirus the better trade, more effective trade and more profitable trade per point using leverage was Bitcoin rather than Gold though they both went up. 

Now in my mind I had a feeling that Bitcoin would outperform Gold this week but you cannot trade on feeling. However I did not want to state my assumption and I wanted to let the evidence in terms of price action show that trading is all about putting your emotions to one side, putting your personal feelings and thoughts to one side and trading the asset that gives you the greater chance of making the most profit in the same time period. This experience proves that for the week gone had you gone long on Bitcoin and Gold and then exited your traded before Gold closed this evening then you would have made more money on the Bitcoin trade. Now hindsight is a wonderful thing but if you now look at both charts and ask yourself what is it telling you and what is it showing you. 

Of course you could have traded both and made money on both or traded neither. If you were going to trade one of them I know which one it would have been based on data and evidence rather than personal thoughts about Bitcoin and Crypto. Even if you look at the last ten years then Bitcoin's price performance smashes that of Gold's and until people start looking at the data and evidence rather than personal opinion based on 'market noise' and 'media bias' then they will not be able to overcome this barrier / blocker that will not allow them to trade their capital more productively.

I am not suggesting people start trading Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies as I accept it is not for everyone but this notion that Bitcoin is more riskier than other assets is only true if you are trading blindly. If you are trading based on price action, trends, signals/indicators, charts, etc. then Bitcoin really is no more riskier than other assets. This is especially true if you have a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system. 

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Strange Days: S&P 500 Is More Volatile Than Bitcoin This Month

https://www.coindesk.com/strange-days-sp-500-is-more-volatile-than-bitcoin-this-month

There are so many 'fake news' and 'myths' about volatility and Bitcoin compared to other assets. Also whilst Bitcoin was immensely volatile in the past as the new concept was introduced, it is now becoming less volatile (though I accept it is still is very volatile). If it gets large institutional investment in the future then I believe there is a chance that its volatility can decrease further. 

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Has anyone noticed the strange behaviour of Bitcoin price at  8pm Friday until 8am Saturday?

I'm new so could someone explain the gap in the chart, displayed in the screenshot attached.

Some Fridays the chart stops for 12hrs and other Fridays for 7 hours, can you execute trades during these periods,  I thought crypto was 24/7.

1.png

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