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Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

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@cryptotrader, possibly but in my opinion combined with a little bit of experience, Bitcoin will need a 'driver' or 'catalyst' in the form of news released to the market before this may happen.

I mean this is Bitcoin so it could just happen anyway!

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2 hours ago, cryptotrader said:

we looking at a reversal ?

I kind of agree with Trendfollower but I would put forward the other side of the coin. Unless there is some new data, news, information the pattern is most likely to continue. But there is no need to try to out manoeuvre or second guess the market, if it is going to try another leg down it will become very clear and there will be many opportunities to jump aboard. Yes, at some point there will be new data that will spring the pattern but no one can foresee when or what that may be.

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@Caseynotes, I could not have put that any better.

For those who do not have a position on Bitcoin then I would be inclined to wait and see if Bitcoin clears its last meaningful high which was around the $8260 area.

For me that would be a clear signal to go long. In theory it should attract the 'herd' waiting on the sidelines after the trend followers, traders and speculators have jumped in. This could cause a spike in the price of Bitcoin due to large buying thus amplifying the price effect of Bitcoin on the long side. 

Having said that I would like to see if Bitcoin hits $10,000 again as that would then attract even more buying and closing of shorts, further exaggerating the move upwards for Bitcoin. This would be a psychological price point in which new buyers who did not enter on previous rally to $20000 may be tempted to join in. The media and positive news released will play a crucial role in any Bitcoin rally. 

There is still some considerable risk that Bitcoin drops back below $6000 so one must have a sound risk management strategy in place in terms of stop losses. 

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If anyone studies the historical patterns of Bitcoin's price action from say February 2018 onwards then one could make an assumptive argument that Bitcoin's price will rise during the month of September 2018.

However, past performance is no guarantee of future price performance. Also none of us have a crystal ball!

One needs to see higher lows being formed which lead to higher highs in time. This would be very positive for Bitcoin thought there is that long term downward trend which is still in play and could still materialise based on any major negativity within the crypto market. 

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God that's it - look at it go.

Like you said @PandaFace you're looking at 3900 BTC traded in 2 hours over this drop on Coinbase Pro - That's looking at close to $27,580,000 in volume when priced at $7k. And that's only on the BTC USD pair so if you took their total flow in it must be massive.

 

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Bitcoin is one of the best performing cryptos available on IG's platform today and it is down at the time of writing around 6% and nearly 450 points!

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I am looking for Bitcoin to hold around the $6100 level. If it does and then another move upwards arises then that could be a very good confirmation signal that we have seen a bottom in Bitcoin for now. However, if it does not hold then...

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47 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

I am looking for Bitcoin to hold around the $6100 level. If it does and then another move upwards arises then that could be a very good confirmation signal that we have seen a bottom in Bitcoin for now. However, if it does not hold then...

I struggle to understand the basis for placing a value or target on Bitcoin. About 10 posts up (as recently as Monday) the view was bullish, with september correlating to a good month',  and it could hit $10,000 but today we are hoping that it will hold the $6.1k mark..?

To be clear, I am not having a go, -never would- but I cannot see how predictions can be made on this asset class. I don't see in the above any credible prediction for this fierce selling.. some people must be losing quite literally thousands in this game..? Maybe it is because I am not close enough to the discussion..?

Don't get me wrong, I'd potentially be interested in taking a punt on a couple of cryptos, but I have no idea how to plot and understand a stable and risk-favoured point to go long..? $6,000, $5,000, $2,000, $200?

In this article, a quoted tweet suggests the price could be being manipulated. https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-price-crash-cryptocurrency-market-value-ethereum-ripple-eos-cash-a8523761.html

I might now follow these crypto threads a bit more closely as the price is dropping, but not sure if that means I am near to taking a position. I prefer assets that I can associate a value to. For instance, today I spent a couple of hours hands-on where I met a regional manager, had a tour, sampled a product, asked questions, double checked the accounts then added about £4k increasing a position on said stock. Alternatively I could have bought about 3/4 of a single bitcoin, I suppose. The bitcoin I have no idea what the 'right' value is. Or what it will be worth next week, or by the end of the year. 

I find it intriguing but also baffling.. 

Great thread by the way.

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They are great to follow as they are an exaggerated microcosm of any market.

The discussion at the end of last week was 'is bitcoin about to reverse' (from the long term technical pattern), the answer today is yes.

I myself am not interested in trading it but I use the live charts on the weekends to experiment on demo with indicators, strategies and to practice execution. With bitcoin and it's min spread of 50 points and min stop 50 points or more a small time frame chart will have a break even level and stop level at top and bottom of the screen while price bobs about the middle, it's laughable, though admittedly if you can 'catch a ride' no doubt worth it.

Great fun.  

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@rimmy2000, I think what is happening is a discussion on Bitcoin's price movements and behaviour with people discussing their thoughts. I don't think anyone is really making predictions as no one has a crystal ball and no one can tell the future. Bitcoin is such a volatile beast that one cannot tell what it is going to do in the next hour never mind the next day or week. We are all merely discussing our inner thoughts in relation to the price behaviour of Bitcoin. 

If you look at the Bitcoin daily chart then you will find that it is clearly in a long term down trend from after Christmas to date. You will see any major spikes up going lower and lower. I have been following Bitcoin for the past few years so I am not surprised at all that we could be discussing Bitcoin attempting $8000+ or down to $6000 levels. I have seen Bitcoin hit from $1000 to $20000 in the same year! Previously I have seen Bitcoin go from $100 to $1000 in a very short time. I have also seen Bitcoin go from $20000 to $6000 in just as short a timeframe. 

Many including myself did not know when or why the current 'blood bath' was going to take place but if you have been following Cryptos then one will know that this is not unusual. In fact after a while you get used to it. The key is to understand what the medium term to long term trend is. The day traders will deal with the short term trends. Cryptos can drop like a stone without any prior warning. This one may have been down to the negative stance on the Goldman Sachs news where they have delaying their decision on entering the Crypto market. This is just an assumption as I do not know for sure. Cryptos are very sensitive. They react to positive and negative news with an amplified reaction. 

I follow the price action of Bitcoin and cryptos in general. Bitcoin has been a long term short play since the $20000 levels were hit and the chart will illustrate that. There will be some traders that have noticed the large spikes up during this downward trend and decided to trade them. There are numerous strategies that can be used in which to try and make money on Bitcoin.

@rimmy2000, I would not encourage you to take any punts on Cryptos. If you do not understand the market then it is best to stay away. If you prefer assets that you can value then do not trade or invest in Cryptos as you will it difficult and extremely challenging to value them.

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thanks @TrendFollower, it is good to see what you guys are up to. I think for me trading BTC would mean I'd struggle to sleep at night through the fear! I'll keep watching.. Keep me in the lopp on this one :)

 

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@rimmy2000, no problem. Will do. 

I invested in the XBT Provider One product for Bitcoin which is essential an Exchange Traded Note (ETN). It is a high risk product but I managed to invest in it when Bitcoin was around the $2,000.00 levels. I have just kept it in there as I did not want to physically own any Cryptocurrencies. I just wanted to trade them both long and short. However, this was an investment into Bitcoin using what is essential a Swedish Bitcoin ETF. You can select either EUR or SEK and there is currency risk but I have used it as a long term hold in Bitcoin. 

IG's Spread Betting platform is for the shorter to medium term trading opportunities on Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies. 

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12 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

@rimmy2000, no problem. Will do. 

I invested in the XBT Provider One product for Bitcoin which is essential an Exchange Traded Note (ETN). It is a high risk product but I managed to invest in it when Bitcoin was around the $2,000.00 levels. I have just kept it in there as I did not want to physically own any Cryptocurrencies. I just wanted to trade them both long and short. However, this was an investment into Bitcoin using what is essential a Swedish Bitcoin ETF. You can select either EUR or SEK and there is currency risk but I have used it as a long term hold in Bitcoin. 

IG's Spread Betting platform is for the shorter to medium term trading opportunities on Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies. 

whats the decay / beta slippage like on that thing?

Edited by cryptotrader

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Great thread, guys. Very interesting discussion.

I found it interesting that a Bitcoin whale with a wallet containing nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin suddenly became active last week after being dormant for over four years. In the days before this week's price decline, the owner of this wallet began transferring millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin to several exchanges. So I shorted Bitcoin! The position is still open with a very fat, blue P&L figure beside it :D. Alas, this position is on my demo account :|.

Have a read: 
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9bfnff/near_1b_are_currently_on_the_move_from_a_silkroad/

 

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@cryptotrader, Bitcoin is an expensive product to trade, custody, store and service at this point. The ETN has around a 3% premium so yes I accept it sounds expensive but for someone like me who does not want to physically acquire any Cryptocurrencies just yet, wants a long term position to hold then it sort of makes it a viable approach for someone like me. 

I accept that there will be natural decay. Also when you hold a position long term in a leveraged ETF then it is worse than holding the same leveraged position in the underlying asset. However this ETN for Bitcoin is not a leveraged product. There would far greater beta slippage in a leveraged product using say x2 or x3 leverage. The way ETN's are structured are quire complex and there could well be minimum beta slippage in this product. To answer you question I don't know the extent of any decay beta slippage on the ETN for XBT Provider One but I too would be interested in knowing if there is any. I am sure there is likely to be even slight slippage. 

I mean working out beta slippage is not simple. You cannot just merely calculate it from a statistics perspective. It does depend more specifically on a sequence of gains and losses. Also these ETN's may be very volatile as Bitcoin's volatility is as volatile as they come.

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Eeek - I don't know dude, I don't think i'd be holding that ETF long haul. Not if you're thinking about the long term aspect, and especially if you believe in these things as much as you say you do. Gotta be important to get in the mix and start using them.

On another note - holly **** cryptos are getting slaughtered. Haven't seen it this bad in a long time. I didn't expect such a pull back on the 6k levels of BTC and ETH I expected to be hovering around 800 after these recent bubble pops. It's an all or nothing thing for me on this and have taking out the initial investment (and then some) so plan is long haul leave this for x number of years and hope for the best but the short term vol movement is annoying.

I'd personally not play the leverage game with this as that would be crazy, and i'd stick clear of ETFs due to costs and just look at the underlying asset and a self managed cold storage.

I wanna reiterate my original thoughts on this post. But gaud I hope BTC holds above 6 otherwise god knows. Also I would like to redact my 500 MA hope :D

 

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There has been lots of online media publicity recently around the XBT Provider One Bitcoin and Ether products which are ETN's and not ETF's. If you look back historically on my posts then I have clearly stated they are ETN's.

I would like to think that I can offer balanced views and arguments on this thread. Please see below some of the articles in relation to this. I would just like to reiterate that the suspension is only for around 10 days or so. 

Bitcoin and ether tracker suspensions are 'normal' SEC reaction, says TETF CIO https://www.etfexpress.com/2018/09/10/268158/tetf-cio-comments-bitcoin-and-ether-tracker-suspension

Bitcoin ETN Suspension Not a Big Deal: Securities Lawyer

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-etn-suspension-not-a-big-deal-securities-lawyer/

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Bitcoin's price behaviour at the moment is very interesting. It seems to be operating in a tight trading range. I think any strong move in either direction (long / short) may well decide what the next trend is moving forwards. Which ever direction any breakout is will determine the short term trend for Bitcoin. 

I actually see the current price behaviour as a way to try and find a current bottom for Bitcoin. If you look from 2009 to 2018 the 'bottoms' for Bitcoin are getting higher. The article below highlights my point nicely.

Bitcoin Price – High’s and Low’s Every Year Since 2009!

https://www.bitguru.co.uk/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-price-high-low-since-2009/

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The real question right now on Bitcoin's price behaviour is if you look at the chart and whether it is making higher lows and higher highs since 8th September 2018. 

 

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1 hour ago, TrendFollower said:

The real question right now on Bitcoin's price behaviour is if you look at the chart and whether it is making higher lows and higher highs since 8th September 2018. 

 

And the answer is... and it means? 

Bitcoin Cash on a freaky tear up 20% odd ?

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