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Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

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There are two things which one must consider that is happening in relation to the Bitcoin price behaviour and Crypto's in general available on IG's platform.

One is that a bottom has been confirmed and we are witnessing the beginning of an upward trend. 

The second is that this is just like all the previous rallies that we have witnessed over the past 12 months and is the relief 'sucker' rally which will then lead to a new low or at the very least test the all time low. 

Lots of different experts are suggesting different things and I have no idea who is right or who is wrong. I cannot simply rely on the online media community and publications to make a judgement or informed trading decision. Therefore I must use technical indicators to help me establish if new higher lows and new higher highs are being formed. I need to satisfy myself that a trend reversal has been confirmed. I need to use the moving averages to tell me whether a trend is in play. I need to look at the strength of the trend and momentum to tell me whether this is genuinely bullish or just plain old bull poo. 

Even if it is the start of a bull move and I miss out by not getting in near the bottom then as someone who follows trend following principles that is fine. It is about catching the bulk of the move in the middle so right now it is too early to enter the Crypto and Bitcoin trade on the 'long' side unless you are merely speculating, gambling, hoping or of course you are a short term trader or day trader which is actually then fine to trade Bitcoin and Cryptos on the long side. 

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Bitcoin is holding up rather well. If Bitcoin was to surpass the $4200.00 level then I think I would have to consider manually intervening and possibly closing my short. I still think the $6500.00 level is the crucial price point which will confirm a trend reversal. 

I have just quickly whipped up a chart with some illustrations as there are times when a visual message can say more things than lots of words. I have tried to keep the chart, SIMPLE, CLEAR and STRAIGHTFORWARD (SCS).

Bitcoin_20190223_10_27.thumb.png.3ba2ce8cc6fabd7becf575b22f6404c7.png

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Bitcoin has crossed that psychological $4000.00 mark and hit $4151.70. If it can cross $4200.00 then things are really going to start getting interesting as the bulk of the downside has been done. Yes there could be a new low and we may see $2000 or so but the large chunk of the downside activity has occurred in my personal opinion. 

For me now going forwards the key is whether Bitcoin surpasses the $4200 level and stays above it. If it does then it is going to target at some point in 2019 the $6500.00 level. The price action will now either validate my assumption by its price behaviour or invalidate it. 

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I have mentioned this before but the weekend does encounter major moves in Cryptocurrencies when they are trending up. I noticed this a couple of years ago. I had to keep my positions open on Friday as otherwise I would have missed some major gains. This is an extremely high risk strategy so I would not encourage anyone to do this but I did this in all my madness but reaped the rewards with some excellent returns. 

Very high risk and dangerous but for the serious Cryptocurrency traders it is worth bearing in mind when they are trending up strongly. 

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Volume picked up around 12h ago but now starting to disappear...

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@akatyk,

Bitcoin hit $4207.10 overnight. I now want to see how Bitcoin's price behaves. Does it go for an aggressive move towards $6500.00 with a few small corrections along the way or will it be slow and steady rising?

It is difficult not to let past performance cloud your judgement so most will be expecting Bitcoin to drop further based on historical trends over the past 12 months and more. My advice is just to trade the current price action with a stop loss in place. Trade the trend and exit when the trend reverses. If it does not then ride the trend until it reverses. 

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My advice is unless you already have a position open, think twice about opening a new one :) I don't personally see any current opportunities, just previous ones playing out.

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@akatyk,

You may be right but for those who opened when Bitcoin was trading in the $3000's have already made a nice profit. If you then add leverage to the mix then even more profit. 

One could have argued the same with US indices but they kept on going up and up and are still going up. Markets do not always conform to the emotions and principles that traders believe in. 

If you take personal opinions, beliefs and emotions out of the equation and base it purely on price action then Bitcoin and Crypto's have to be considered. If you feel that it is a relief rally or false breakout, then fine, your stop loss will allow you to exit either at a profit or small loss.

You are right you should absolutely think twice or even three times before opening a new position and next week will be an interesting week for Cryptos and a lot more will be revealed.

What is your basis for thinking that there are no current opportunities and you think only previous ones will play out? You may be right and I am not disagreeing with you but what is your basis for this? Is it just based on historical trends and price action? Is it history which is determining your view? If so then it would be so difficult to enter any trades if they had not performed as per historical notions. 

I am just offering a balanced view and a counter argument though I do understand and to a certain degree even agree with your assessment based on this specific moment in time.

My basis for not entering a new trade on Bitcoin would be due to the way the moving averages are sloping. For me they are not sloping upwards so I would wait until at least the 20 and 50 DMA were and the 100 DMA was either sideways or starting to slop upwards.

Litecoin is proving to be the most aggressive in its positive upward price action and its moving averages curves are sloping the most positive out of all the Cryptocurrencies that IG offers on its platforms at the moment. I am attaching the chart to illustrate this to the IG Community.

 

Litecoin_20190224_11_37.thumb.png.b9c6c173c3bad6124145e8427dc30fc0.png

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Well Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies never fail to disappoint!

Normal service has resumed and a mammoth 300+ point drop in Bitcoin. EOS is down over 16% which tells me that it is speculators that are running the show on this asset class rather than real hardcore investors and investment firms. 

The question now is whether the big drop and the new low is coming which makes a good shorting opportunity or is this just a correction before the next upward leg resumes?

This asset class is as risky as they get. They make Commodity Trading look low risk! LOL

😀

 

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More of the normal service is resuming with Bitcoin et al.

There is a lot of capital entering and flooding the Cryptocurrency market in anticipation of the next bull run. There will be plenty who will not want to miss out if this was to occur and hit several price points. If the price action supports the technicals then there is the possibility of lots of capital flooding this new asset class causing large daily price increases in not just Bitcoin but the other smaller Cryptos.

 

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Unless Bitcoin can stay consistently above $4200 level then I fear that there may be another large drop coming and another new low looming.

Bitcoin needs some seriously positive news to begin a major bullish trend upwards. 

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In some ways I just wish all the bad news about Bitcoin would come out and it just makes another new low and gets to the so called $1000 - $2000 level so that the whole asset class can move on, improve and start a major long term bull move. 

The momentum is still there when you read:

Warning: - Some of the articles may well contain bias. Also the credibility and accuracy could be questioned. Having stated this warning I do generally find that they are mostly correct and reported quicker than other sources. 

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Bitcoin clearly has the largest market cap by a considerable distance. Ether and Ripple are both 2nd and 3rd and not really much between them. Stellar seems to be dropping down to the lower side of the top ten and EOS as emerged as a real competitor to both Ether and Ripple in terms of market cap.

I have attached the Cryptocurrency Market Cap link below:

https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

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It seems normal service is resumed in Bitcoin and the other Cryptocurrencies offered by IG on its platform. This is also following a similar pattern that we have witnessed over the past 12 months and more. This pattern will change at some point but not until Bitcoin hits its bottom and then possibly hits it again to support any move upwards and confirm to the participants that the bottom is in place. 

Potential Trade Idea: 💡

This now represents a possible shorting opportunity. A good entry point for the short could be to go short on any days when Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies are going up. Using Oscillators may assist with any entry points. Ensure stop loss is in place and you know your exit price before entering the trade.

Disclaimer: The above is just a potential trade idea and it could be the wrong trade, there could be a strong upward move that means stop losses are triggered or generally a sharp trend reversal could occur.

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I think the Crypto's are taking it in turns in having high performing days. Today it is Stellar. Yes it is Sunday but Stellar is up around 13% at the time of writing. Litecoin had a stellar week last week.

My prediction is that Ripple should have a stellar day tomorrow and this coming week. This is just based on lack of price action and activity compared to the others. It should have at least one to two days of positive large price gains in the next few days or so. 

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Bitcoin just cannot stay above $4000 which is not a bullish signal to me.

It seems it will need a catalyst to get there but I am not sure what that could be. Bitcoin ETF news is rather quiet.

There are other Crypto's with faster transaction times. It seems to be slowly losing some of the 'edge' it once had.

Reputation alone will not get Bitcoin to move higher. There needs to be more substance. 

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I have read several reports indicating that Bitcoin is in a strong consolidation period and the reports are inferring that this is prior to any move up. One could argue that the consolidation period may be prior to any move down.

There is no real trend to trade in Bitcoin at this moment in time. This could be a positive for Bitcoin as the volatility may be reducing and the wild swings and large moves up and down could be declining. 

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There seems to be short term support at around $3800. It seems to be waiting for some form of news to help it move!

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Tom Lee has suggesting that Bitcoin price is on verge of racing into bull market! When in 20 years time!!!

His recent 12 month predictions have all been out. That is not to say this one will be wrong but his track record is not great.

I have attached the article for your perusal. 

Tom Lee: Bitcoin Price on Verge of Racing into Bull Market

https://www.ccn.com/tom-lee-bitcoin-price-on-verge-of-racing-into-bull-market

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Here is another twist to Tom Lee's mystical prediction powers.

Bitcoin Price Breakout Scheduled for August, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-breakout-scheduled-for-august-says-fundstrats-tom-lee

Let the price action determine your trading decisions. Use technical indicators or what ever analysis whether technical, fundamental or both to assist you in making an effective trading decision rather than this 'market noise'. 

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Guest komunis

In my opinions we are coming out of the bear market and are starting to see slightly the light in the end of the tunnel. This time I think that Tom Lee is right, looking at the fundamentals and market behavior. We should look at sideways movement for half a year with slight upward trend, considering that volumes are in a uptrend (taking information from exchanges and trading platforms like Binance/Bitfinex/Bitmex/Primexbt etc...

So I wouldnt be surprised that at one point suddenly we can see almost doubled volume per day by the end of the summer.

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The question people seem to be asking me is whether I think Bitcoin has bottomed? My answer is that I really do not know. I think this would depend on whether there is any more bad news to come out in relation to Bitcoin. If not then what we may be witnessing is Bitcoin consolidating before the commencement of a potential bull run. This bull run may only occur in my opinion if there is plenty of positive and good news to be released in relation to Bitcoin.

It seems to be heading towards $4000 but it really needs to stay above this level and continue pushing upwards to build momentum and attract further capital towards it. 

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The Bitcoin price is above $4000 both on the buy side and sell side. The key now is whether it can remain above this level. 

  • Bitcoin is now trading above its 20, 50 and 100 DMA's.
  • Price of around $4755 will take it above its 200 DMA so this is a very interesting time for Bitcoin.
  • Are we seeing a false rally which will possibly lead to another leg downwards or has Bitcoin bottomed and are we seeing a consolidation period?

Bitcoin_20190321_07_27.png.ea8593eef74acaeebdcd7ff13204f787.png

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Bitcoin is showing some bullish price action but for me it must cross the $4200 level at the very least on this attempt. Failure to do so will lead to the price dropping again as witnessed several times already.

I will give Bitcoin some credit in that it is still showing some resilience and has certainly not crashed to zero as many predicted. There is still time though! LOL. 

Does anyone think we have already witnessed the bottom in Bitcoin? If so then why do they think that?

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I think we are getting to the stage where either Bitcoin will drop yet again or we are going to see a strong bullish rally after this consolidation period that we are witnessing. I do not know which as it will be dependant on the positive / negative news that is released by the media on Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. 

If Bitcoin can break above $4200 then it could indicate a confirmation of the end of the bearish phase. I do still fear that just when you think Bitcoin et all are rallying then a big drop comes and wipes all the smaller traders and investors out.

Cryptocurrencies are one of the riskiest asset class out there. In fact I am struggling to find another asset class more riskier right now.

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55 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

I think we are getting to the stage where either Bitcoin will drop yet again or we are going to see a strong bullish rally after this consolidation period that we are witnessing.

So you're saying it will either go up or down?

Well technically yes i guess you're correct... ha! 

I personally hold that same viewpoint for all assets. I believe they will either go up or down. lol.

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@cryptotrader,

Bitcoin is a different animal altogether. For example there could be a strong reason why one could think a specific commodity or asset is going to go either up or down.

With Bitcoin it is extremely difficult as there are arguments on both sides for it to go up or down. It would be interesting to hear if anyone has any fundamental reasons why Bitcoin may go up or down or in fact any technical reasons why there is a stonier probability or either an upward or downward move. 

@cryptotrader, my comment was based on trying to get a discussion going with regards to Bitcoin's price behaviour. 

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