Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

[TrendFollower 584]

Are the 'Whales' going to continue swimming with the tide?

🐟 🦈 🐋🏊‍♂️

[TrendFollower 584]

Could the Easter weekend bring a bumper dose of price action for Bitcoin et al?

Prices are looking solid going into this long weekend including Good Friday, Easter Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday. There could be a lot of interesting price action. Some of the best gains can come when one least expects. I suppose the same is true of the reverse in terms of losses!

[TrendFollower 584]

In my personal opinion, I think the longer Bitcoin can stay in this current trading range above $5k then the stronger any future upward move will be. There is the possibility that Bitcoin could trade in this range for a while with lots of 'sideways activity' so potential traders will need to bear this possible scenario in mind.

[TrendFollower 584]

At 5:44 pm all the Cryptos are in the red but are coming back strong. I sense they could be about to all hit a blue wave based on current short term momentum. 

It is just a 'gut feeling' based on instincts. Let's see what happens.

[TrendFollower 584]

So 14 hours later from my previous post (above) all the Crypto's that IG offer through their platform are in the blue. It is 08:32 am.

Now many argue that it was just fluke / guess that I have made. I was reading some research which showed the Bitcoin performed well in April and it has finished April on a positive note over the last four consecutive April's. It was currently up around 27% on a month-to-month basis. 

Bitcoin had previously rallied 8%, 26% and 33% percent in the month of April in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively.

When you look back at the data then you will see that Bitcoin has posted gains in April in five out of the last seven years.

[TrendFollower 584]

If anyone can name me an asset that has delivered the returns that Bitcoin has over the same time period of around seven years then I would be interested to know. 

Current Price: $5,340.81    Today: +0.82%  +$43.24

Period	Dollar Change	Percent Change
Today	+$43.24	+0.82%	↑
Last 7 days	+$263.09	+5.18%	↑
Last 30 days	+$1,341.48	+33.54%	↑
Last 6 months	-$1,114.68	-17.27%	↓
Last 1 year	-$3,522.69	-39.74%	↓
Last 2 years	+$4,085.41	+325.43%	↑
Last 3 years	+$4,898.65	+1,107.90%	↑
Last 5 years	+$4,847.72	+983.13%	↑
Last 7 years	+$5,335.55	+101,434.35%	↑

Bitcoin supply is inflating at around 4% annually. This rate will drop sharply in 2020, when the next reward halving occurs. 

[TrendFollower 584]

Bitcoin is trying to break out when looking at the 'daily'. It will be interesting if it can and if it does then whether the other 'alt coins' follow.

[TrendFollower 584]

Just 19 hours later from my previous post and Bitcoin is holding firm but the rest of the 'Alt Coins' are dropping in price considerably. Bitcoin mat well follow suit. Time and price action will tell us whether this happens or not. The rest of today and tomorrow should be very interesting. 

[M0R11 0]

On 07/03/2018 at 05:33, TrendFollower said:

To me, Bitcoin has to not only cross the $11,700 level but stay above it. If it can achieve that then let the games begin.

 

At the moment, Bitcoin is showing some immense resilience bearing in mind the large negative media coverage it has had and is still getting. 

 

Since the last major drop / correction there has been a change in Bitcoin's price behaviour. It is slowly creeping upwards but consolidating more frequently. The 4  hour chart shows this nicely. This is unlike the parabolic rise it saw prior to the December 2017 all time high. This is actually very good for Bitcoin long term. It means the volatility which is still there may well start to decline going forwards to avoid such big moves upwards and such big drops / corrections.

 

As liquidity increases and the market matures then the price behaviour of Bitcoin may become more stable if that is a word that I can apply. For me any drop below the $9,400 level would be worrying. 

Sorry I put a heavy order in demo account. New to this and learning. Sorry again.

[M0R11 0]

On 07/03/2018 at 05:33, TrendFollower said:

To me, Bitcoin has to not only cross the $11,700 level but stay above it. If it can achieve that then let the games begin.

 

At the moment, Bitcoin is showing some immense resilience bearing in mind the large negative media coverage it has had and is still getting. 

 

Since the last major drop / correction there has been a change in Bitcoin's price behaviour. It is slowly creeping upwards but consolidating more frequently. The 4  hour chart shows this nicely. This is unlike the parabolic rise it saw prior to the December 2017 all time high. This is actually very good for Bitcoin long term. It means the volatility which is still there may well start to decline going forwards to avoid such big moves upwards and such big drops / corrections.

 

As liquidity increases and the market matures then the price behaviour of Bitcoin may become more stable if that is a word that I can apply. For me any drop below the $9,400 level would be worrying. 

Could pushing it up have huge gains in the short term

[M0R11 0]

On 18/04/2019 at 13:50, TrendFollower said:

Are the 'Whales' going to continue swimming with the tide?

🐟 🦈 🐋🏊‍♂️

No I have exited. I need to brush up. Can I ask with demo account it has not affected?

[TrendFollower 584]

@M0R11,

I don't quite understand your questions but shall offer my perspective. This will be my own view so please conduct the necessary research yourself. 

If speculative capital or institutional capital push up the price of Bitcoin (I do not know that they will) then yes of course there could be the potential for large gains in the short term. One must remember that Bitcoin has already from $3300 to $5300 so an increase of $2000. Now add leverage to a long trade and one can see the huge gains some may already have accumulated. The question is whether there is any more upside in the short term? I do not have the answer and nor does anyone else. 

I must stress that Bitcoin is a very high risk asset to trade. I would not recommend anyone new to investing or trading to dabble in Bitcoin or any Cryptocurrency for that matter. 

I do not understand your question about demo account. I do not know much about the demo account on IG so unfortunately I cannot offer any assistance in relation to that. Others on the IG Community may step in and assist you here. 

[TrendFollower 584]

It is 5:30 am and Bitcoin is up 3.51%. From the 'daily' it seems like it has broken out of it recent short term trading range. It hit $5648 overnight. It seems to be pushing for $6000+

 

[TrendFollower 584]

It seems Bitcoin has a clear run up to $5872 and then beyond to $6000+ 

Bitcoin seems to be flexing its muscles and showing who is boss in the Crypto Universe. It is the original and strongest Cryptocurrency and is leading the way and has been all day today.

[TrendFollower 584]

What we have just witnessed is what is called a 'Golden Crossover' for Bitcoin. This is when the 50 DMA and 200 DMA cross during an upward move. From reports I have read this is the first time this has happened since October 2015 which I did not realise. Apparently analysts consider this indicator as an advanced warning on stronger price gains in the long term. I would want to see any data or evidence on why the analyst think this. So I will take that with a pinch of salt. 

No doubt for those following this thread you may be wondering what does this mean for Bitcoin? Well this crossover represents a trend change from bearish too bullish. So from a 'Trend Following' perspective this is a very important signal. Now I am an advocate of moving averages and I use them a lot. However, one must always remember that moving averages are backward looking. So for example the 50 DMA would represent one and a half months in the past and the 200 DMA would represent price action which is six months old. Yes that is right, six months old. 

Bitcoin is making higher highs and higher lows. I personally would want to see a pullback which would show strength in this latest rally rather than it simply rocket to ridiculous levels which are unsustainable. Now another thing to bear in mind is that Bitcoin is showing overbought levels and I appreciate different traders will use this in different ways when making trading decisions. 

[Caseynotes 1,370]

@TrendFollower, indeed I posted on this earlier today, if you missed it see here;

 

[TrendFollower 584]

@Caseynotes,

Thanks for this. Yes, I did miss it so thanks for sharing. 

[TrendFollower 584]

All the Cryptocurrencies are declining in price today pretty strongly as we are all accustomed to. However Bitcoin is proving to be more defensive and resilient as is only 2.5% down against others which are 8% and 11% down. 

Bitcoin is the strongest and main 'Infinity Stone' of the Crypto Universe.

If it can stay above $5000 level then it will be extremely healthy and positive for Bitcoin going forwards.

[TrendFollower 584]

I think until Bitcoin crosses the $6500 level and stays above it,  Bitcoin will still remain in a long term downtrend based on the 'daily' chart.

For this to happen the markets will need to go into 'Risk On' mode. At the same time there will need to be positive news on Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in particular to drive prices up to this level. Of course this will need to be supported by capital flowing into the asset class along with speculative capital that will be required to take this up to such price levels.

The only way Bitcoin could go up to $6.5k levels without speculative capital is if there was buying on the long side from institutional investors. However, if this happened then by the very nature this would attract the speculative capital, hedge funds, trend followers, etc. 

[TrendFollower 584]

Recently there has been a disconnect between Bitcoin and the other Cryptocurrencies that are on offer on IG's platform. 

Bitcoin's chart is more bullish than other 'Alt Coins'.

The question is whether Bitcoin is primed for a breakout? 

Apparently there was a flash crash on Kraken where Bitcoin fell $1000!

Bitcoin from February 2019 to date has been impressive. It really has been very good since middle of December 2018.  Will it continue for the remainder of 2019?

[TrendFollower 584]

No doubt this latest flash crash will have meant lots of stop losses being triggered and traders exiting with a loss.

 

 

[TrendFollower 584]

Bitcoin can made a low of $4968.80 and it seems to be for now staying above this level. Whether it will remain above this level it yet to be confirmed. There are reports that there could be a more deeper retracement before any resumption of the rally upwards.

Now this will be confirmed by the price action which I believe is far more accurate than any reports. Yes, I read articles and reports as part of broadening my knowledge of current activities within this area but for me 'Price Action is King'. The price behaviour of Bitcoin will tell us the narrative of this current storyline. 

[TrendFollower 584]

First of all, Bitcoin is still holding above the $5,000 level which is extremely encouraging from a technical perspective. However, encouraging is all it is. From a long term perspective unless Bitcoin crosses around the $6,500 level and stays above it then it will still be in a long term downtrend. This $6,500 level will be crucial in the coming weeks and months. I personally think Bitcoin will tease us all and certainly cross the $6,000 level as that is what Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies do and have done. Tease us. 

From a trading perspective, the volatility in Cryptocurrencies helps create some really good trading opportunities for short term traders, swing traders, trend followers, etc. Volatility is necessary and is what helps Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies achieve such fantastic returns. Bitcoin even now outperforms other asset classes (even with such high volatility).

Now no one knows what will happen to the Bitcoin price going forwards. Will it make new all time highs or will it continue in its long term downtrend? Has Bitcoin bottomed? No one knows for sure yet and we all will make assumptions including myself. That is fine and there is nothing wrong with that. It is the price action alone which will prove the assumption right or wrong and nothing else. 

Historical price action does not guarantee future price movements will behave in a certain way. Future is undecided and a new future can be created. There is no rule in trading that confirms that price must behave in a certain way based on historical movements. If it were that easy to predict future price movements based on historical price action and charts then trading would be so much easy and traders would make profits the majority of the time.

Trading is extremely difficult and trading Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin even more so due to the extreme volatility compared to other asset classes.

What I would suggest to those who think Bitcoin is garbage, is going to zero, is going to make new lows, is going down, etc. (and they may be right as well - I simply do not know) is to short Bitcoin and profit from this price behaviour. If some are that convinced that Bitcoin's next major move is downwards then they must profit from this as a trader. Better still share the 'Short' Bitcoin trade with the IG Community so we can all see the profits being made from any potential downward price action in the future.

 

[TrendFollower 584]

It seems someone thinks my previous post is 'Sad'.

Are they able to articulate a better trade than Bitcoin in terms of returns since the start of 2019 that they have traded and achieved higher returns in?

Cryptocurrencies are an asset class that are here to stay in my personal opinion. Yes they will adapt and the participants within the asset class will change but this asset class is not going anywhere. In fact it is going to improve and get bigger. More capital is going to be allocated in it in the coming years and this is only just getting started.

I have been trading Cryptocurrencies for a while now and I have never not been able to close a position, or a stop loss has not been executed, etc. Trading Cryptocurrencies is no different to trading a Commodity when you are trading based on trends and price action. It really does not matter what the asset is. This is the beauty of trend following. It is the trend and price action that is important. It does not matter whether you believe in the asset or not. It does not matter if you disagree with the progress of the asset. You are trading it on price action rather than any personal opinion or view.

One must not get so emotionally attached to a view that when the price action is allowing a trade to make profits that stubbornness stops them from participating in a profitable trading opportunity. 

I personally do not care what the future of Bitcoin is as I am not trading Bitcoin or any other Cryptocurrency based on its future. I am trading them based on current price action and trends. If they disappear or go to zero in the future then I would like to think I am wise enough, quick enough and good enough to trade them 'short' all the way down as low as possible and profit. If one feels comfortable shorting indices, FX or Commodities then shorting Cryptocurrencies really should not be any different.

[TrendFollower 584]

Bitcoin is still trading above $5000 which for now is good but it seems the upward trend is weakening which could result in profit taking, stop losses being triggered and a more deeper pullback meaning Bitcoin could go down into the late $4000's.

I do not know this will happen for sure but by looking at the chart and a shorter time period for example the (1 Hour) chart it is showing us this:

So one could not rule out a drop to the $4800 levels or even possibly $4600 levels.

Japan is a big participant in Crypto trading. With the Golden Week which is a 10 day holiday, I am not sure how much impact this will have on the market overall. This will be the longest market shutdown in Japan since World War II. 

[TrendFollower 584]

Bitcoin is currently trading at $5146 to sell and $5187 to buy. 

It is still staying above the $5000 level which is impressive. The question if it can continue to do so?

[TrendFollower 584]

What we could potentially see is a delayed Bitcoin fall where it may fall after that 'Alt Coins' finish their falling!

Though Bitcoin is just about managing to stay above $5000 I fear that it could fall below this level and then the next crucial price point is around the $4860 level as I have highlighted in the chart below.

[TrendFollower 584]

If you look at my previous chart then you will also notice that Bitcoin (just about) is making 'Higher Lows' and 'Higher Highs'. However the price action is weak and there is no real strength in these (struggling) 'Higher Lows' and 'Higher Highs' being formed.

 

[TrendFollower 584]

So Bitcoin is up around 6% at the time of writing and hit $5815 today and this with the Japan shutdown!

Bitcoin is bullish and the trend is getting both stronger and gaining momentum. I think $6k is on the cards but Bitcoin will face stern problems between $5.9k and $6.1k if you look at the 'daily' chart. 

From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin, has some positive drivers right now in increased volume and usage albeit not where near the levels required but these things take time. This is supported by price action right now as well. 

Caution: Bitcoin is still in a long term downtrend until it hits and stays above around the $6.5k level. 

 

[draa46 1]

Have to agree with you there Trendfollower, could well pull back and take a bit more time to consolidate.