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By Caseynotes · Posted
When looking at these markets and the trading behaviour of the average retail trader it seems to me that many don't really understand the market they are trading, there are also psychological factors that influence decision making to the detriment of trading success. If you are not confident in your understanding of the market then you are solely dependent on technical analysis but TA is not a given, it can only play out if assisted by fundamental and macro factors, those factors currently point to bull continuation. So the US major indices are routinely hitting new all time highs, the retail trader thinks they need to sell the high in order to buy back lower (buy low sell high right) so the retail trader (the crowd) are constantly trying to pick the tops (and patting themselves on the back thinking they are being contrarian). The positioning data of IG clients tell us this is exactly what's happening. Every time price goes higher the sell position ratio increases, when price is falling in a down trend the buy position ratios go higher. So clearly this is all wrong, when price is continually rising you need to buy high and sell higher. You buy breakouts or pullbacks, you should not be looking to sell a bull trending market at all. So why do they do it? The market is too high (no it's not), it must be the bears turn (wait and see first), but I need to sell the highs, the saying says so (no, you're not an investor), the chart is looking 'toppy' (just no), the TA is pointing down (doesn't matter without fundy and macro assist). An understand of a market comes with experience, until it does stick with the basics and look for longs in an uptrend, don't try to second guess the market and end up constantly fighting against it. -
By Caseynotes · Posted
The exit polls will give a fair idea whether is will be worth staying up late to watch the constituency results come in one after the other and watch the swing of 'yes/no' which if is a close run thing will also swing the market but be prepared for high spreads and high min stop loss levels.
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