ASX200

[Guest Zero]

Thinking of starting a new ASX200 / SPI (ASX futures contract) thread, with some anticipated daily moves, or trade ideas (daily), or daily summary/interesting things.  

 

IF IG don't allow trading tips then I won't.  I will admit upfront I won't be able to trade the digital 100 trade ideas myself which is not of my choosing, but hopefully that doesn't make the suggestions any less legit.  

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Today saw  a rally on the open (following the US and overnight SPI) fade right back down to where it started, then ranged there until a brief surge from about 1:30pm till 2pm.  Then it did nothing until 10seconds before the close of the ASX200 for the day.  Hard to believe.  What was happening at every trading desk around the country/world for those 2hours 39mins 50seconds...?  

Anyway, I noticed some cheap digital 100's at 3:57pm (first time I checked for the day so can't comment on earlier pricing) where the 5950 ladder was cheap for a buy at 48.  Cheap considering the XJO was about 5950.30, then 5949.90.  Virtually in the money for 50 is good if you can get it.  

The next 10mins of lockout was flat, until heavy selling in the last 10sec and for a minute after.  That was interesting as despite the selling, the XJO actually went up 0.1 to close at 5930.30, meaning those digital100s would have expired at 100.  (Oddly the opposite cause for this effect happened yesterday).  

As per yesterday too, there was heavy selling in the last minutes as a big player squared his exposure for the night session and/or FOMC.  

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Re; trading tips, don't see why not, plenty in the past have tried though with varying degrees of success. Did miss the old ASX thread, was a useful glimpse into the indices action between the US and London sessions.

[Guest Zero]

Hi   Thanks for the encouragement and kind words.  I'll try and give some useful tips when I am watching the markets.  I can often give a "before the market opens" anticipated theme for the day (morning, lunch say, and then into the close), and then maybe some shorter term digital 100s.  While I can't back up my tips with my own money, the public accountability is enough to keep things honest.  

 

Two things - I don't really use TA, or money management as per the possibly conventional wisdom, which might make my posts different for other traders - but "it" works for me (doesn't mean it couldn't work better of course).    Trading psyche is the biggest factor anyway.  Incorporating that into a thread would be a challenge but useful... Hmm.

 

Cheers.

 

 

[Guest Zero]

8:46 AEST Expect the market to weaken on the open, then stabilise and range higher, higher into 1pm.    Relax lower and then again, steadying with a bit of a bounce and range into the close, keeping near the end of day price into the final close.  (ie. the market for the ASX closes at 4pm, but then there is 10mins of off-market fiddling, giving a final value for the ASX200 at 4:10pm.  That's where/when the digital 100's expire.  

There's job data at 11:30am too.  

[Caseynotes]

Interesting symmetry fwiw asx, dow, dax.

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Hmm, interesting.  Thanks.  Something is brewing.  The DAX seems to have some seriously sharp falls in the mix.  Never pay much attention to it.  

[Guest Zero]

Hmm.  My anticipation was better than I thought.  As if I entered the Matrix today.  Sold off on the open, at a precisely defined level, then steadied.  Buying kicked in for a small rally back to the starting price, then given a boost into lunch/1pm to the days high.  A big seller there capped the move just before 1pm.  That selling strengthened after 1pm (China sold off after they lifted their Reverse Repo Rate a touch - as they have been doing apparently) till mid afternoon.  Then steadied, with a small bounce/range. 

The best was into the final close - which ended up basically where it started (so 4pm price was 5937.50 say and the final close 5937.20).  The kicker was that there were some 20min digital 100s (can I use the term binaries please...) priced too cheaply!  Way too cheaply.  In the money but buying for 52 - some bargains for those on the job.  As it were, the similar binary was on offer for 52 at 3:40pm.  

As an aside - that goes to show some of the uses of binaries.  The same profit - yet for one you have 20mins of uncertainty, but also 20mins where you could take remedial action if required v one where you have 1min of room-to-move.  But of course, you could load up with more contracts 20mins out.  

XJO closed at 5937.20 meaning those two binaries I saw were profitable.  I didn't look for others, but there would have been options galore from 11am.  

The miners (BHP, WPL (Woodside Petroleum) and RIO) were strong on our market, rest a bit ordinary (weaker).  Well QBE an insurance stock stood out as well, also more than 2% gain.  

 

China dragged everything a bit lower for most of the session, but after 4pm the Dow and Nikkei recovered a bit, China slowly following.  The SPI sold off again after the cash market finally closed, but was happy to settle at the initial (so at 4:11pm) sell-off range.

 

Another interesting aside - an algo was the master today.  Too precise to be ignored...

[Guest Zero]

After a 742pt drop on the Dow, it will be an interesting day.  The SPI fell to its lows early, but didn't make new lows into the close yet the Dow dropped another 300 pts!  Algo's can be pedantic.

 

Today would expect some weakness on the 9:50 open, but then a rally before falling back, settling at a level into 1pm.  After 1pm would expect some buying to try and kick in, but it will most likely fade back and end up ranging, steady into the close.  Probably a day to be flexible, as if the volatility has kicked up (again), the average surge may be larger than normal.  Makes binaries a bit trickier...

 

Often before the weekend there are a few clear things to watch during the day - again with the large move overnight it will be good to watch to see how/if the algo's can still do their thing.  

[Caseynotes]

Watch China, Trump in his usual boastful way declared trade war on everyone over the last month but has softened and signalled concessions to Canada, Mexico and Europe. The main target was always China, and it is the realisation of that is the reason for the big indices drop over the last couple of days. If China capitulates there will be a sharp rise in indices, but if they dig their heels in (with no real bargaining chips) expect further down trend. China is a seller not a buyer so a trade war is not to their advantage, US can find other sellers, not as cheap perhaps but close enough.

[Guest PandaFace]

If they can just hold off until the new ISA tax season starts that would be greeeeat.

[Guest Zero]

Considering the touch up the Asian markets were given, the SPI held it's own pretty well.  Down about 2% v -4.3% for the Nikkei and -4.8% China, which accelerated around 4pm.  SPI had heavy selling after the XJO (ASX200) closed, down to it's daily low.  

 

The daily flow was an early surge which sold off all morning into 1pm as expected.  The small mid-morning bump was one of those algo-perfect moves on a Friday that I hinted at.  The selling found a range (small) around 12pm, and kept that into the 1pm digital 100 expiry, staying weak.  I was out all morning, got home and looked at the prices at 12:57pm, and saw something priced too high - the 5820 ladder - for a sell at 51, and then another (same 5820 ladder, second lot) at 43 (I was confident) - possibly another at 55 (not sure if the 1min lockout kicked in).  The Dow futures had a small surge into 1pm but the SPI relaxed to be at 5818.70, binaries safe and a good trade for 3mins of work.

After 1pm, the market relaxed, then rallied as anticipated, but that faded into a range.  Held that tightly into the close, again, and stayed there for any binaries.  There was a nicely priced 5820 ladder (again!! - interesting) but this time a buy for 52.  Closed at 5820.70.

All up for the day at least $1420 per contract (51 sell, 43 sell, and 52 buy) with about 5mins screen time.  

 

On the ASX, there was nothing but red - the miners heavily hit BHP 3% and RIO 4% falls.  Banks just over 2% falls.  Interestingly, Woodside Petroleum was only down 0.1%.  Maybe a defensive trade in all of this turmoil?  I don't care much about these details to trade, but they are useful to give a story to the day.  Or to tell people who ask - suddenly everyone wants to know you when the markets are falling out of bed.  

 

Interesting observation for the day - SPI the same range as yesterday.  The overnight lead very different however....

 

As  rightly said, there is a bit more to this tariff war.  The details with Trump are always key, and as of now it is a bit vague.  Tonight will be good to see how the US follows through.  The dump in the last hour was harsh, may consolidate tonight.  The futures are down 170ish pre-EU open.  China and the Nikkei in particular have sold off into their close.  

[Guest Zero]

New week, shortened week.  Strong lead from the Fri/Sat US fall has fizzled out a bit, and IG is pricing the SPI over 20pts higher than its close, which is something worth watching...  Dow futures up almost 70 already.

We/Australia benefits from the weekend to buffer any extreme moves from the US close of the previous week.  Our SPI would have reacted in real time, but Monday's open has a totally different psychology after a weekend to get over it.  

 

9:22am Yet today, expect the markets to weaken on the open, but then reverse and try and push higher.  A few attempts, which will likely hit some selling pressure and fade.  Watching for a positive move into 1pm.

Then, again, some selling should be met with an attempt to rally, which will most likely fade into the close of day and cash close/expiry.  

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Last week's selling  was mitigated today on the SPI as expected.  Early weakness rallied, faded, then had a bit more of a go (ie rallied a bit further) but that died out and it ranged for a few hours at the highs.  There was a surge into 1pm as hinted at.  That was good for binaries, but IG was lucky to price them a bit too high, which meant the 5790 ladder (1pm) was a touch too expensive (even though it was out of the money) for 55 to buy.  Yet it was a profitable trade - the expiry at 5790.00 exactly.  In that case IG would honour the buy side.  Frustrating if you sold - you'd be right but wrong and get nothing!  The art of binaries (or digital 100's if you prefer).  Yet I chose a safer option (which oddly was cheaper, work that out - possibly a minute earlier) a 20min binary for 52 buy 5789.50 strike, in the money to 100.  

Then some selling kicked in as hinted, but that rallied, and got a bit of a go on at around 3pm to a new high for the day.  But after that the market just faded into the close.  There was an odd spike in the last 5mins, but into the close of the cash at 4:10pm the market came off as expected.  That was a more risky play, as all afternoon the big players were basically buying.  So to sell into that was a risk.  Yet there was a good binary - a range binary down 30-40 for 27 (actually 33 by the time the trade would have been on).  The market at 4pm (the end of day lock out for digital 100's) was at 5792.60 - a hard place to trade as it was a touch too far away for any binary considering the buying pressure (and I was looking to sell).  A two point fall for the range binary was a lot to ask for, and yet on expiry the XJO closed at 5790.50 down 30.20, meaning the buy at 33 expired at 100, a profit of 67.  With a good trade at 1pm, that was a bonus, but for trading psychology considerations, it would have been just as good to leave the end of day due to the potentially conflicting signals (me personally).  The better trade would have been a buy at about 2pm, but I wasn't watching then.

 

Come 4:16pm the market was hit, with the Dow and Nikkei leading the charge.  The SPI surged to a new high (interesting range...) with decent buying.  The Dow was strong right from the early open, futures up about 135 and kept strong all day.  The Nikkei was down about 200, which rallied by 1pm to a small loss, but then that has reversed in this last surge to now be up 115ish.  

 

Nothing really outstanding in our selling.  The banks weaker than the miners percentage wise.  All down nevertheless.  

 

That tip this morning would also have been a 20pts low risk CFD trade.  $500 per contract.

 

Anyway, I might fade myself from doing this everyday.  Three days, three not so bad predictions given before the market even opened.  Each day a minimum two profitable binaries where you could have doubled your investment with a fixed risk (digital 100's).  Today there were two views (ie forum/community views) all day (and one of them probably mine).  The Morning Call somehow got 80 in maybe an hour, and to be honest, despite the quality of the report, there is no information in that to use to make money. 

 

I seriously wonder what IG clients do?

 

[Guest Zero]

The most annoying thing is to see good trades go to waste....  Today I was a bit busy, and expected a ranging PM after a v shaped morning, so didn't keep much of an eye on the markets.  It was a killer day for binaries if you could (and my opinion is you should...!)...

I did see the closing action and there were two binaries for a steal - about 40pts for a buy 5830 ladder and a range up 40-50.  If you were being ultra diligent, you would have stuck to the 5830 ladder, as the cash was at 5829.20 just before 4pm, which was the equivalent of up 38.70.  With no overshoot risk, and a higher probability, the ladder was the one to chose.  Probably a touch more expensive, but with binaries you just want to be right more than you want to finesse the price of entry.  

Cash closed at 5832.30 up 41.80, binaries to 100.  

The whole day was a range, with some early selling bought up, and then extended a touch over lunch.  That faded, then rallied again (though not to new highs), then settled down, relaxed a touch after 4pm but then came home strongly into expiry (4:10pm).  This time the buying (not selling) continued after the XJO closed, up to the day's high, with solid buying.  During the day there was selling into the strength, which reversed after the cash closed.  

 

We didn't go nuts like the US did last night, and today was a consolidation of yesterday's strength.  Miners out-performed major banks.  US futures were strong all session (over 100) and the Nikkei was the star, up about 2.4%, China up 1.5% (fading into the close).  

 

Europe is opening an hour earlier too from this week (for Australian traders).  Can be something to watch - if it is leading a move, then the SPI and XJO will get a move on from 4pm (when the DAX kicks in).  

 

(Edited a value - 28.70 to 38.70).  

[Guest Zero]

Today option expiry - early due to Easter.  Strong fall again overnight leading us down, with an almost 60pt fall from yesterday's cash close.

 

Expect a steady start to weaken, then rally back into a range.  Similarly in the afternoon, weakness to rally back and then fade a bit into a range close.  

Lots of "forces" that could muck up all of that.  The Dow lead, and the options (anything goes at times for option expiry) fiddling.  

 

[Guest Zero]

Good day to trade binaries - ban schman EU.  The SPI had a good start, interestingly ignoring its overnight close all together!  Quite unusual.  The Dow futures were a touch stronger pre-open, taking a bit of heat out of the overnight lead.  Yet we were having none of it, options already deciding the days events.

The open was sold back down to the low, which then rallied and ranged as expected.  1pm there wasn't much on offer as the price was in between ladder levels, and was easy for IG to price safely.  There was a 5800 ladder that could have been sold, but it was a risk and best left alone.  Went to zero (so profitable if sold).  

The afternoon sold off but then recovered, and ranged into close, a touch lower on expiry as hinted.  That was where the trades were for the day - at 3:44pm a buy for a "down 40-50" range binary for 52 (a touch over my preferred 50 or less for buying), yet the binary was in the money (XJO - 41).  Then near the close, there was a risky 5790 ladder binary to sell for 49 (again a touch under my preferred 50 or above for selling) - probably too risky in hindsight, but I was expecting weakness after seeing stronger selling all PM, and there was a chance the range binary (with my expectation) would go lower than 50.  The sold 5790 ladder would protect losses from that scenario, almost double my profit if the range held, but possibly double my losses if I was wrong.  

Nope - XJO 5789.50 -42.80.  Tidy. 

 

The ASX ie XJO was down 0.7%, with the major banks and miners mostly down over 1%.  Asia was hit a bit harder, China down over 2%, Japan down about 1.4%. During the day Japan was a touch stronger, but that weakened into the EU open.  That (EU open) also has dragged the Dow futures lower, down 37 now, yet it was up over 55 mid session for the ASX.  The SPI is selling off now into the day's close, following the rest of the world.  YET the algo's are keeping it real and under their control.  I love it. Mindless.

 

Interesting the pricing of the binaries this arvo - ladder binaries were hit hard suddenly with no real change on the ASX or SPI.  The 5790 ladder I sold was up near 50, then 1min later down at 22-32 bid-ask.  That's a big drop with the SPI only down probably 1more pt.  Dealing desk up to something...   

[Guest PandaFace]

Hey - I like reading these posts! Just thought I'd note it down. The thread has been viewed hundreds of times though no? If I had a better understanding and traded the ASX market I would get involved in the chat but I don't I'm afraid

 

Do you have a set criteria for picking which binaries you trade on? A 'plan' almost?

 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Hi  Thanks ! - I appreciate your comments.

 

Short answer is that I don't really have a plan.  It depends on what the ASX is doing.  

There are a few things that make binaries a bit more profitable - like not over trading, and being patient (closer to expiry is often more predictable).  It takes a different mindset to trade binaries, which is not that hard to develop, and once you do it makes things easier. 

I'll have a bit of a think about it and maybe post some more later.

 

 

[Guest Zero]

8:58am  Today would expect a steady start that should weaken into a range into 1pm (off lows).   Boring afternoon ranging most likely, positive bias.  

Dow futures already up a touch, and the Nikkei seems strong v everyone.  

What happened to gold last night ?  End of month perhaps.

 

That (end of month) and the last trading day (till midnight for the SPI) for 4 days will make it a tricky day to anticipate.  

[Guest Zero]

Another note - 20pt move in IG's after hours ASX/SPI that is worth trading.  The Dow up 49, the Nikkei again leading the surge.  

[Caseynotes]

Worth noting not only end of week/month and last day before 4 day break but also end of quarter so could well be  a lot of unwinding of positions causing moves not in line with normal charting expectations. 

[Guest Zero]

A day of millimetres.  Started off with a bang before the market opened - the Dow futures (and Nikkei) pushing the market higher on the open.  IG were pretty good to make the market accurately after hours (ie. before the open).  The hint to trade that 20pt move was sneaky and worth the risk.  A low risk trade (to short obviously) which actually would have been 4pts clear of the actual SPI high.  The SPI opened on it's high (5789) and fell, had a rally but then sold off as suggested.  The price at my post with IG's market making was the equivalent of about 5793.  By lunch the SPI had dropped about 40pts, so that early short would have been an early ticket to the pub.

IF you stuck to binaries, it was a bit harder.  The price was in a zone where you would have had to trade the range early.  The price did sell off then come 12pm settled into a tight range.  Off the lows into 1pm, but just - there was still selling pressure, and it was keen to fall further.  I left the binaries alone.  

Sold down after 1pm - the heat had come out of the Nikkei and Dow earlier - but the selling reversed and the SPI rallied about 18pts.  Steadied there, then fell back 20 - that was the anticipated range (large range, but didn't expect a directional move).  However it could be legitimately argued 20pts is a decent trade for a CFD.  In the last 5mins there was a dump to bust my range, but that stabilised (down about 7 more) and then strong buying kicked in, with a decent surge into the XJO close at 4:10pm.  

So while it looked messy, my anticipated move actually played out, the surge mitigating the dump to keep the SPI in a range off the lows (positive bias) into the cash close.  I traded my suggested moves, buying a 5755 ladder for 47 (the XJO at 5753.80) and before that I bought a range binary down 30-40 for 48 which was cheap as the XJO was -35 (midway in the range for 48 is cheap).  That was 5 mins before the close (4pm close) and before the dump.  So I was thinking I had done my money - which for the last trading day in 4 days is not a good idea psychologically.  

There were a few extra details in my favour to make the trade a bit better than what it seemed, but that is a little technical.  The SPI surge lifted the XJO enough to close at 5759.40, -30.10.  Ladder binary (5755) safe as, and the range binary just!  Again (like the short on open) the closest you could be before you got into trouble.  If it was -30.00 that would have ticked over into the other range binary I believe (20-30). Anyway, I won't take credit for it.  Still the $520 per contract along with the $530 for the ladder was a nice end to the week.  The ladder binary again providing a backup in case the range binary went to high, which it almost did.  That would have kept me flat instead of taking a loss.  Again, the risk was doubling my loss, yet I had the expectation of a positive bias into the close which is what I traded.  

 

The SPI sold off in the last say 5mins, but kept inside it's earlier lows. The Dow and Asia (Nikkei and China) have strengthened again, and IG is pricing the SPI 10pts above its close.  After a good day - relax, enjoy the long weekend - psychologically speaking.  

For the XJO - our big banks had a positive day, the miners weaker by at about 1%.  Probably a more defensive play for the long weekend.  

 

Enjoy.  A lot of Australia goes back on to usual (non-summer) time this weekend I think.  I don't - my state doesn't change.  Yet that will kick the SPI an hour earlier/later from next week.  

[Guest Zero]

Hi  Good point.  I forgot about that.  Thanks.  It was a bit dicey here in the last hours of the day.  The big players stepped in but the algo's had to keep it all neat and tidy, so while there were some unexpected moves, they were still "precise" if that makes sense.  

 

[Guest Zero]

Expect a weak start to stabilise then range higher.  Fall back after 1pm, steady, then back up into the close.  

RBA at 2:30pm, consensus is no change.  

 

Be interesting to watch the open.  Four days off, and a big lead overnight.  I was watching IG earlier and they had priced the SPI at 5624 with the Dow down 742.  I bought there (mentally) thinking it was too far.  Up 50pts already - but the open of the SPI will be more interesting.  IG already having us down 70pts.  We'll see how good their algorithms are for anticipating this (opening price).  Normally they are ok but the lead-up this time is not the usual.   

[Guest Zero]

My one line tip for the day might have seemed a bit useless, but it was pretty close to the day's flow.

 

Despite the big lead, we opened steady (note at 5690, so my buy at 5624 was a good risk to take - IG's 24hour market is something to really appreciate if you're a client), then stormed higher.  Well in spurts (ranging higher my terminology).  Sort of 30pts then a pause,  20pts, pause, then 10.  Made a high at lunch, then relaxed a touch, back up into 1pm.  No real binaries as the surge took the price out of IG's expected 1pm range.

 

After 1pm, the market waited for the RBA non-event, then checked out the high before falling as expected.  There was selling over lunch and into the RBA, which continued, knocking the market down 23pts.  I expected a positive close, so was looking to buy, and at 3:34pm saw a good binary for 40pts (range down 0-10).  The move down created a bit of value in the range binaries.  

Bounce happened into 4pm, but the selling pressure was still around,  My trade was all over the place (the price) trying to kick me out, but I held on expecting a positive close.  Closed -7.50, binary 100.  Selling continued after 4:10pm cash close.  (That's 150% for the ATM EA thread...)

 

Since then the Dow has jumped, up 42.  The Nikkei seemed to be helping us higher today too.

 

Intra market - the miners were strong here today, BHP up 1.7% and RIO 2%.  A big oil/gas company Santos jumped on a takeover offer.  Rest was weak but not by much, considering the lead and overnight activity.

[Guest Zero]

This strength may fade into the close.  Algo's could be happy keeping things contained from here, 5760 binary a possible sell, range binaries also yet there is no need to get in to them at the moment (in case it falls more than 7, which would be a new range).  Dow futures down 77 yet most of Asia positive.  Selling into the indiscriminate buying locally.  Miners flat, banks up about 0.5%.

[Guest Zero]

Actually, the binaries are being priced too cheaply, so not worth selling.  Should be 55 sell at the moment say, with the XJO 5761, yet the 5760 ladder binary only a 43 sell..  Range binary (up 0-10) too expensive at 58 buy with the XJO +9.30 (should be closer to 50.

 

So - fiddle fiddle.  The dealing desk weighting their prices.  Market just dropped 4 points with some heavy selling, so all of the above would have been locked in (so now "worse").  Maybe there is another binary, 20min or hourly...

[Guest Zero]

Hmm, well that so-called mispricing worked in my favour, keeping me out.  Well, if I was in I would have been flat, with the ladder binary (5760 sell) losing v the range binary (up 0-10) profiting.  Days like this mystify me - well the day evolved as expected, yet the last 30sec. is a mystery.  Huge buying contrary to the whole day.  As if someone closed out a hedge - I might think of another explanation, but regardless, the buying pushed the SPI to new highs on the XJO close (yet the XJO didn't make new highs - this is another tricky thing that can't be helped - the internal correlation changes on the close from what it was during the day).  

IG may have been burnt - if they go too low with their binaries (ladder was a 30 buy on the close) it is too attractive to leave and people will buy just to have a punt.  Would have cost them.

 

Anyway, we started lower and then sold off a bit, contrary to the lead.  Then we ranged higher, and continued higher after lunch.  Good buying, but bigger traders selling into that.  The Dow futures negative all day, but Japan and China trading positive.  Our miners flat, banks higher. 

 

Now the Dow is still falling, will drag us lower (you'd expect) and the EU/UK slightly weaker.  If that trade on the close of the XJO wasn't hedging related, someone might have a sleepless night tonight (unless they have deep pockets).

[Guest PandaFace]

So IG was pricing correctly then? Also if they were pricing or you thought their guys were skewing the market then why didn’t you just take the other side of the market? For example if the 5760 ladder at 58 was too high to bid on, surely you’d just sell it there?

 

Or have I got that wrong?