ASX200

[Guest Zero]

Hi Panda,

 

In my opinion IG weren't pricing them correctly.  I don't know if they price depending on their view of the market or their exposure.  If exposure, they were short heavily the ladder binaries and were trying to convince clients to take a risk as you suggested.  If market view, then they'd first be taking a risk (don't believe they predicted the last minute rally) and they'd have to expect contrary to the momentum it would shoot higher (then hope client's don't muck up their pricing)  Their pricing of the range binary suggested they expected it to fall which was reflected in the ladder price.  

 

I wouldn't just take the other side if they were pricing incorrectly either.  Today it would have forced me to sit out.  They could still be priced incorrectly but things go in their favour on expiry.  Depends on their exposure primarily (if no one was long the ladder they were safe even if they were pricing it to fall).  That's the trap with binaries - to assume IG are correct, that their pricing is correct, and let that dictate your decision.  

The spread is also a big factor.  Earlier they were 43-58 bid ask for the ladder meaning to sell you'd only get 43, where it should have been over 50.  But to take the other side would be buying at 58 - again too high for the risk so just doing the opposite is sometimes still not a good risk (that is if you stick to the rule of buying under 50 or selling over 50 - if you are 50-50 then that money management will still keep you safe).  

 

There are times when doing what you suggest is a really clever tactic, but today they got lucky I guess (assuming no one bought their under-priced ladder).  If you sold the ladder earlier, they might have been pricing them lower to keep you in the trade, assuming they knew that it was going to surge again.  I don't believe they are that good to be honest, yet they aren't totally useless.  

The overall thing with binaries is to be right - so to decide if the XJO is going to be above or below 5760 (or in the range 0-10 or etc etc).  Then see how IG are pricing what you expect and trade.    

[Guest Zero]

Big night - on the EU re-open, the SPI tanked 70pts (wonder if that big order on the cash close was in the know....??), but then has done a 91pt U-turn.  I remember not seeing that range in a whole week back in the days.

 

Today would expect a relax on open to rally to a high, then fall back to be steady 1pm.  Any weakness then will be bought up into a ranging close.

 

Some trade data 11:30am locally.  Yet the overnight moves will likely move the market, including reactions from Asia.  

[Guest Zero]

Buying consistently across the day, but their conviction eased a touch after say 12:45pm.  Still bought over the afternoon, but at 3:30pm they wanted stuff done at 5770 (SPI) (dropping about 5pts).  Oddly that was last night's high...  Dow futures were about 90 pts higher most of the day, but they seemed to drag us lower at 3:30pm, dropping about 40pts.  Everything else (Asia, Europe) didn't change.  

Morning relaxed lower on open, then moved higher, had a pit-stop (important one though) and then continued higher.  The PM was ranging near (but below) highs, then ranged lower into close.  Interesting that the XAO (the whole of the Australian index) closed at 5888.00 while the XJO (top 200) closed at 5788.80.  Someone having a joke with the triple 8's.  Chinese algo's taken over ??

 

The miners were lower today, BHP down 0.7% while RIO fell 1.2%.  Our banks up just over 1%.  Volume just below average.

The volume of the SPI has been above average the past few days - maybe new quarter activity.

Didn't get a chance to watch the morning binaries.  The PM was tricky - I was waiting, and caught by surprise by the 3:30pm move - about 5pts lower than I expected.  Then the range was tight on the close - around the 30pt range binary (20-30 or 30-40).  There was another internal inconsistency, hinting at the lower range a better risk.  There was a chance to buy that binary in the last 3 mins for 45 at least.  I was distracted so couldn't trade with much conviction.  

 

All markets strengthening now, but the SPI is still fixated at 5770.  Will keep an eye on that price for future events.

[Guest Zero]

Good lead overnight should follow through today.  Some mucking around on the open, a relax, then heading higher 1pm.  Pullback should recover into a positive range and stronger close.  Eyeing the NFP tonight.  

 

I remember my first killer binary trade - it was a Friday pre-NFP and for some reason the SPI was being bought all day strongly.  I took a big risk with some out of the money binaries (so risked 8 to make 92) right on the close, which came good.  That was about 4 years ago - I still keep an eye out on NFP Fridays.  

[Guest Zero]

Half time and the game is on !   Nothing like a Trump tweet to drop the market (Dow futures) 300pts before the day begins.  We opened 40pts lower than the previous night's close, which is a lot.  Nice if you were holding a short (unlikely as the market rose into the overnight close) - probably the best trade of the day.  

 

After that it was a bit confused (the market) and while I was clueless that tweet was going to be dropped on the market, my expected flow was pretty good (I am surprised too).  The market wanted to rally, fell back, had another half-baked try (only 10pt rallies too) then fell to its low for the day.  From there is found some strength (a little bit too precise to be market sentiment) and took off, pausing at the earlier high (24pt rally) before moving higher into 1pm.  Fell back after making the magic number of the past 24hours (5771 high !) and stayed there into 1pm (XJO down just over 1pt).  

 

The buying was cautious but there.  The trade sizes were mostly small interestingly, volume still ok.  That must be significant - will think about it.  

 

Days like this are great for binaries (or binaries are great for days like this).   With the Dow futures going into whipsaw mode, pure CFD's will be a bumpy ride.  Binaries at least you know you've got the worse case covered on entry.  Psychologically I mean.  

Yet there weren't many choices close to expiry as the XJO was at a price in between binary levels (easy for IG to price).  The better trade would have been getting in on a few ladders early on.  The up/down was in play about 6mins out, but I forgot to check the price (range binaries or pure up and down - when it is almost at 0 you have those two choices. Would have been some value there, say 40 buy 100 on close/expiry).

 

Dow futures were down over 300 early (- 367 the best I saw - wasn't watching the open, got home and was caught off guard).  That improved to -300, then -280 as we rallied into 1pm.  Then it seems it wants to stay at -300. The Nikkei is flat, and like the SPI, isn't really being hit like the Dow.  China down 1.3% on IG's platform, which maybe their own price as I thought I saw China had a public holiday today.  The DAX was down 148 and the FTSE down 48 before lunch.  

 

The SPI is still heading higher.  Going its own way today.  Commonwealth Games gold psyching the local market....?  (Joking).  3 more hours til close, the buying is still active now.  

[Caseynotes]

Everybody loves a good Trump tweet market bomb especially when on the gold medal coast watching fun and games. 

[Guest Zero]

If he could do it before I've posted my pre-open expectations on the forum in the future...

 

After 1pm the buying continued, but faded back into a range.  Then there was a bit of an unwind close to the close of day 4pm, back to the mystery level 5770.  Interesting where the high was - algo perfect for those interested.  So the high of the day wasn't a special support/resistance level.

Into the last 10mins, I expected a bit of an up move - which it did (to 5770 again - its getting a bit silly now), but then the third day in a row the internal correlation re-adjustment meant the cash market didn't do much.  Ended down 0.1 - the only decent binary near the close was an up/down.  Up was cheap around 46, but if bought would have been as close to being correct as possible but wrong (if it was 0.00 the bought binary would have gone to 100).  That is THE essence of binaries, and why they can psychologically send you bonkers.

I would probably have ended the day annoyed if I was trading, wearing that loss.  All in all, the whole week would have been positive.  

The volume on the ASX/XJO was less than average, which may explain the fragmentation of orders today on the SPI.

The SPI tried to rally after 4:10pm, with the Dow surging about 70pts, the DAX and FTSE both improving a lot.  But it faded back to the magnetic 5770.  We might try a bit harder tonight to rally - I expect a bit of up down up volatility.

 

 Edited for stupidity (first line)...

[Guest Zero]

Strong negative lead overnight ie. Fri. night/Sat morn.  The SPI didn't really fall much, so we either aren't too concerned, or we'll catch-up (to the downside) today.  For example - Friday morning post-Trump-tweet, the Dow futures were down 300 and we gapped down on the open 40 to 5748.  Almost 24hours later, the Dow closed down 572 yet the SPI is only 10pts lower at 5739.  

 

I would expect some selling on the open to stabilise, recover a touch into a range 1pm.  Relax, an attempt to rally in the PM should fade but steady into the close.  

 

Mondays can be interesting.  The EU open is often when things get real.  If we lead the EU however, then the move is pretty serious.  

 

Edited the Fri night Sat morn.

[Guest Zero]

Erratic day, with two surges the main moves of the day.  The early selling was a bit half-hearted, less than I expect but there all the same. Then suddenly it was as if someone accidently got a double-shot for their morning coffee, as the market surged to a high, about 25pts in minutes (10:45am).  Fell right back as if they knew they were too keen, however the Dow had also surged to 140.  Ranged, staying mostly at the bottom of the range (bottom third) till about 12:45, when it surged back to the high.  I had just nailed an "up/down" binary - buying the up for 51.  The XJO was down 0.10 then - but I timed it just right (unintentionally) as the market surged right then, keeping that binary safe as!!  

The surge kept going to a new high by almost 20pts, the second (continuation from 12:45pm) surge for the day.  That faded as suggested to a steady range.  Now close to 4pm, the market has found a few bids as expected (two binaries, the 20-30 range for 41 buy and 34 buy at 3:34pm 3:37pm are looking promising.  At first they were duds, but trading my expectations came good.  

Well - it would have annoyed IG - XJO closed exactly +20.00 meaning my two buys were good.  Can't get any closer than that (see the Fri loss -0.1).

Late selling pressure kept the SPI subdued, and again the internal correlation was all over the place.  Maybe the low volume on the XJO makes it easy for this to stray.  Annoying - it can make or break a binary and there is nothing you can do about it.  Came pretty close today - the SPI kept its strength as expected (up 1 v 16:00) yet the XJO fell into the close, by over 3pts which is a lot.

 

The Dow and Nikkei seems to be leading moving SPI today.  The first surge was Dow inspired.  The Nikkei was flat till about 12:44 when that second surge kicked in, and it rose to be up 140, the Dow futures up 188.  Both faded across the afternoon, but are keeping most of that surge.  

 

SPI buying pressure all day, with good volume, yet the XJO low volume.  Miners and banks small moves, so the buying is local defensives maybe (WES and WOW - Westfarmers and Woolworths two standouts = consumer spending/food - I don't watch every stock, just the majors).  $AUD also putting on 200 pips.

 

51 buy into 1pm, 40 buy and 34 buy this afternoon all going to 100 - not sure how many contracts per trade but they were easily 15mins before expiry, so should be 10.  $1850 per contract, 10 = can go to the Coast for the rest of the week.  It annoys me I am on the bench so to speak... !  !! 

 

Edited - typo (wrong binary range).

[Guest Zero]

The downward momentum from the late stages of the US session seems to be continuing post close.  Futures down about 50, IG having the SPI down about 8 already.  

 

I expect a small rise to weaken, reverse then range higher.  Post 1pm similar, with a ranging close negative bias.  

Probably a day where I'll make adjustments on the run.  Well, that's everyday I guess.  

[Guest Zero]

Hmm, things have gone a bit nuts today.  Suddenly bid is the word - with no reason given (or needed).  My AM expectations were a tad conservative - while I expected some weakness to reverse then range higher, it would have been more accurate to say trend (or trend strongly) higher.  That's where predicting flow/sentiment is a bit lacking - the intensity of the moves.  You still would have been safe with any binary or trade with the suggestions, but there was more on the table.  

The market rallied a good 60pts before taking a breath, then had another 10pts in it to round out 1pm.  Constant buying, a brief pause at a pre-determined level where it got a second wind.  Interesting where it made it to (the SPI) on 12pm - not sure if that was intentional but it was algo-pedantic.  Probably not important.  

I was stepping out at 12:30pm but I stuck with my expectations and saw a 5850 ladder (1pm) at 51 buy, and a range 40-50 binary at 48 (cheap!) - the ladder a better risk as the XJO was at 5849.30, +40.60 - so while one just in the money (yet cheaper - that's why I said cheap), the risk was the overshoot which wasn't a problem for the ladder.  Both same risk on the downside, but that's trading.  1pm was solid, about 5856.50, 47.80.

Fell back as expected then returned to range at highs - the sort of move I expected this morning (intensity wise) which is why I said "similar" - the respective sizes of the moves weren't - one probably 40pts larger that the other.  Goes to show the strength of the AM surge.  

Was lead by the Dow, which was up 343 at one stage, and the Nikkei stronger too.  They have both since relaxed, the Dow up 280 and the Nikkei 160 (0.7%, about the same as the SPI).

 

Again the SPI volume is strong, yet the equities volume is less than average (30mins before close).  The big banks are up over 1%, RIO up over 2% (strongest) and BHP just under 1% gain.  Broad-based gains - yesterday's positive stocks sold, rotated back out of - stupid.  Oddly Woodside didn't seem too keen to follow crude, with about a 0.5% gain.  The $AUD up 300pips along with the USDJPY (same).

 

Still buying at the highs as expected. Can't really see a decent priced binary though with this morning's good trades it is ok to contemplate other things.

 

Edited - a comma somewhere.  

[Caseynotes]

President Xi has started to make concessions in the trade war (negotiations) by moving to protect intellectual property rights of foreign firms and the lowering of import tariffs.

 

[Guest Zero]

Thanks!   That's interesting.  Would explain the upbeat mood, yet I would still expect more volatility ahead.  This is political and so a bit random.

 

Markets kept their range right into the close.  No new highs despite the strong buying all day.  Content to range, the XJO offering nothing from my earlier post (well, there might have been a 20min binary but I forgot to check).  IG had priced the range and so kept themselves out of trouble.

Oddly, today the correlation between the cash and the futures was steady and as it should have been all day - then at 4:10pm binary expiry, widened.  So the opposite of the past three days on a day you'd expect the opposite.  Which is why this is an unpredictable part of trading - but today it wouldn't have changed any binary's profitability.  

 

Be interesting to see what happens tonight.  The SPI has room to relax a touch lower.  

[Guest Zero]

Today we just weren't interested - compared to yesterday - yet not much has changed.  Overnight we came off a touch, despite the stronger lead (US up 428 v futures during our session about 340) and then on open this morning we sold off about 25pts.  Rallied with decent buying, but then relaxed back lower, recovered some over lunch into 1pm - still buying too.   Then we meandered, the Dow futures staying about -80 most of the AM/lunch, and the Nikkei not doing much either.  About 2:30pm the buyers were wanting cheaper prices, so the algo's obliged, a chance to offload some accumulated contracts.

Quite a slow grind to the day.  Bigger players doing the work today.  

 

The ASX is down about 30 (20-30 range binary worth watching) with the miners stronger, over 1% (RIO 1.25%, WPL 1.35% and BHP 1.8%) but the big banks down over 1%.  Volume at the moment (30mins before close) just less than average again, SPI above average (night volume on the SPI also much larger than average).

 

Tricky close expected - watching the range binary, but deja-vu with the correlation thing again.  

 

 

[Guest Zero]

What's the percentage return on buy 21 sell 100?  Bettering Monday's profits: IG were making some poor prices into the close (well good if you were trading them), with that binary I was watching a buy at 21 just before the lock-out.  Was also a 34 buy a touch earlier.  I was watching it at 3:30pm, half an hour earlier, and it was a cheap buy at 43 then.  That was a steal in my opinion - the XJO was 5828.60, down 28.40 and the 5830 ladder a buy at 45.  So out of the money at 45 yet in the money (down 20-30 range binary, XJO at -28) binary at 43 buy!  Of course slightly different risk factors, but not if you know how to trade. 

 

Anyway, I gave that tip before the market closed, in case anyone trades them.  I hope so - that's the only reason I post them, and why I didn't bother today - I assume no one does.  Let me know maybe.

XJO closed at 5828.70, down 28.30 - binary to 100 of course.  The market stayed the course, and the volume just sneaked up to be average volume for the day (XJO).  SPI ranging at its low into the close, again the bigger traders doing a lot of the work today, and into the cash close.  

[Ronde]

Nicely put

[Guest Zero]

Thank you.

 

 

[Guest Zero]

An active morning - which seems pointless... Just had a check on something and now it is not pointless at all, but a bit spooky....

 

We sold down a little on open, to a controlled level, then rallied hard.  A 40pt rally which is respectable.  The Dow was up about 70 at the time. Then we fell right back to ground zero.  40pt fall.  Which is why I said it seemed pointless.  Yet along the way there was steady buying.  Ranged into 1pm, with some selling pressure into 1pm.  

I had just found out then that there were fewer binaries on offer than with the old platform.  I had to find the 1pm section which they have kept, but couldn't find any range binaries.  That is a shame, and hopefully doesn't say something about IG's binaries.  Digital 100s - I know.  

In frustration I did a head-**** trade, in the last 10sec seeing a great opportunity to sell the 5810 ladder for 58 (probably 53 when the order was put, XJO 5810.10).  Went to zero, a good snack for 1min into 1pm.  XJO was 5809.50 on expiry.  

 

As of now, there is ok buying support.  The market should range higher off any weakness, and then be steady into close.  Seeing as there are no range binaries to spice things up - the whole thing seems a bit pointless.  

 

Up down Digital 100's and Ladder Digital 100s - basically directional trading, scalping mispricings and changes that momo-algos can't see.  As a carbon based trader I will always beat an algo or EA.  Maybe IG are admitting that with their reduced binary offerings.  

 

Well, I hope I am wrong, and they will still offer them or still do and I haven't found them.

 

 

[Guest Zero]

As suggested at about 1pm, the afternoon was a bit of a snooze.  The market ranged higher, and held steady into close.  Now IG  were way off today and it would have been lucrative (someone tell me they traded it....!) - IG were mispricing the ladder (daily) binary (again).  The 5815 ladder was 30-36 at 3:41pm and the XJO was 5814.30.  That is ridiculously cheap - buy!!  The SPI ranged under 5815 for the next 20, and so the ladder binary was pricing between 21 and 43 pts for a buy.  At 3:44pm buy at 42.9, at 3:48pm buy at 33.  Last minute of the day probably close to 26 buy - the XJO at 5814.  

 

The buying was steady all afternoon, the Nikkei having a late surge to be positive, the Dow coming off a little to be up 30 (v 50 before).  The XJO had small gains in the miners/oil (BHP best up 0.68%) the big banks and other stocks coming off by a similar amount.  Vols a touch less than avg.  Closed 5815.50 - those binaries or digital100's could have given you a long-weekend (at 100 so risking average of 33 to make 67, easily 10+ contracts).  

 

I don't think IG clients appreciate how big a deal opportunities like that are.  

 

Anyway, buying continuing up to the close.  Yet that doesn't mean much for the night session.  Today was an extremely precise aglo-controlled day, right up to the close, with decent volume (which is why I say a little spooky...).   

[Guest PandaFace]

How much of an impact do you see the AUD strength (or lack there of) having over the next few trading sessions? Getting hammered by trade war fears as John kicklifgter said in that latest video on the dashboard.

[Guest Zero]

Hi   I don't think it will have an impact over the next few trading sessions.  It might have an impact in the next 3months for longer-term investors, and either way you'd have to be trading pretty good size for it to have an impact.  However the ASX and the $AUD may move in a correlated fashion - if it drops a cent or two in a day, then the SPI may get some (offshore) buyers getting more for their $AUD.  But I've seen both - $AUD strength with ASX strength, and vice versa.  It is a lame answer but it normally is true - it depends...  

 

Depends on how you trade too.  I remember once the $AUD was leading the SPI but a few seconds short term.  For about 2hours - so a small surge in the SPI was tipped off by a surge in the $AUD.  Worth watching on the day, and if you see the correlation, then use it.  

Yesterday from memory, the $AUD did nothing for most of the morning.  Yet the SPI rallied 40 and fell back 40.  So for a day-trading perspective, the SPI is has a mind of its own (v currencies).  

[Guest Zero]

Today a ranging day, slight relax rally to a range, steady close.  A day for the old platform...

[Guest Zero]

The shortness of my predicted flow seemed to be oddly correlated with the slowness of the day.  Someone switched the boring to 11.  While algos are very beatable, they are unbeatable when it comes to boring.  Today the market ranged.  In slow-mo too.  Fortunately for me I wasn't interested, with a sense it was going to be a quiet day.  The open mucked around, had a brief moment of craziness up about 14 to the high, then settled itself back down, fading 15, then back up 10 say into 1pm.  That defined the range for the rest of the day, the afternoon continuing to fade then have a quick 7pt rally, fade back.  Still average volume on the SPI and generally buying, but the volumes on the cash (XJO) are below average.  

 

Dow futures were down about 60 from the open till lunch, then have slowly improved, down 20 now.  The Nikkei was strong on its open but faded, the $AUD the best currency with 200pips gain.  Well, I don't watch a lot of FX so there might be others.  Gold is strong for Asia (and no lead or a negative lead) up $5.00.  

 

There was a risky digital 100 into 1pm, the 5839 hourly ladder.  It was well out of the money (3pts) with 5mins to go, and I didn't check the price.  There was small surge, but the XJO wasn't having it - but then it realised it was getting left behind so caught up to the move - on lockout it fell from being 5839.0 to 5838.50, then 5838.80, and then 5939.10 on expiry.  All without the SPI changing. 

 

Into the close, IG are mispricing a ladder binary.  The 5830 ladder is priced at 49-58 yet the XJO is 5829.00.  So IG must believe there will be a small rally in the next 5mins, which has to then hold for the 10min lockout.  Worth a sell in my opinion.   They have been pricing their binaries to the upside all afternoon, which is odd for a Friday.  The range binaries are safe and easy to price, so my switch back to the old platform wasn't necessary.  Right now there are a few signals that the market could go either way.  I'd wait a touch and see how that ladder goes, it will only become a better sell if the move is on (and IG incorrect)...

[Guest Zero]

5829.10.  Nothing like a close-of-day binary for an adrenaline rush.  The SPI was dragged higher after 4pm and I was thinking my tip to end the week would have cost anyone who cares $$.  Then, in the last 20seconds someone with a bit of muscle just hit the bid down down down.  Thank you whoever you were.  The binary sold for 53-55 after my post went to zero (selling you want it to go to zero for most - the old tunnel binary was the reverse - those were the days....).  A tidy profit ($550 per contract) for a nothing day to end the week.  IG would be a bit miffed - but I did warn them I guess.

 

(For those who don't trade binaries, and haven't on the ASX - at 4pm the binaries are not tradeable, but the ASX ie XJO still trades in some after-hours settlement - I don't know exactly what it is but it is not open for the public so to speak.  So come the close at 4:10pm the price of the XJO will jump to some random value as defined in this 10min "auction".  So watching the binary today along with the SPI and IG you can get an idea where the binary might expire, but until that official price prints it is unknown, and today all bets were off right until the last 5sec, and then it could have gone either way - until the official value...  5829.10.)

 

XJO was a mixed bag, RIO the best with a 1.97% gain.  Woodside (oil) down about 0.6% oddly, BHP up 0.3%.  Banks a touch lower (except Macquarie).  Lower volumes and futures lower than the rest of the week, but about average.  

 

Action was confined to larger players.  Buying mostly, with a small surge now with the DAX and Dow.  $AUD following. 

 

Not a bad week in hindsight.  

 

 Edit: Grammar.  

[Guest EA-trader]

Why  do you not make a EA to do the trading for you?They make money , if you program them OK..Same EAS can trade asx200,  with ATMASX200  trading machine.

 

The eas sit in front of a screen 24 hours a day on your behalf.

 

 

 

[Guest apadhani]

ATMASX200  Automated trading machine has no emotions and stress, is good.

[Guest PandaFace]

I thought IG didn’t speculate on movement and their prices come from buyers and sellers? Don’t know Bineries so maybe wrong.

[Guest Zero]

There are a few reasons, one being that I trade in a discretionary manner.  My trading system is not easily automated.  It is putting together a lot of things - like the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.  Another philosophical bent to the day's discussion.  

 

I normally don't sit in front of the computer anyway.  Especially with binaries you can spend far less time in front of the screen.  I did in the past to get up to speed of course - experience counts!  

 

 

[Guest EA-trader]

Zero

 

I can run my eas on asx200   24 hours a day , it will make more money than you , I won't have to do a thing.For next 30 days , you post your trades , my EA will show result after 30 days.

[Guest Zero]

You may be right  - I say IG because I don't know either way.  YET - I have a sneaking suspicion one way...

 

Today at 3pm there was another mis-pricing.  The range binary in the money was cheaper than that out of the money.  And on close that cheaper (41 v 45, XJO +19.00 but the 10-20 range cheaper than the 20-30) binary would have expired in profit.  

 

Clients or the dealing desk - doesn't matter, but it is an interesting question.